Thursday Night Football Betting: Can the Home Chargers Hold Serve?
Left for dead by many pundits, after winning six straight contests, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to their AFC West rivals in the Los Angeles Chargers for a massive Thursday Night showdown as 3.0-point favorites, per NFL odds. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Our nERD-based rankings show that this game could be a delight. Both teams are ranked inside the top-10, with the Chiefs (8th) just slightly ahead of the Bolts (10th).
Let's dive into some interesting betting angles for this contest.
How Do They Measure Up?
After getting off to a bit of a rocky start, there's arguably been no one playing better football than signal-caller Patrick Mahomes. Using our Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, Mahomes has risen to a mark of 0.20 Passing NEP per drop back this season, throwing for over 3,600 yards and 27 touchdown passes.
Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert has picked up right where he left off from an absolutely brilliant rookie campaign. He has been slightly better than Mahomes in terms of Passing NEP per drop back, logging a mark of 0.21, and he's thrown for over 3,800 yards and 30 scores.
As for the running games, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has returned, and he appears to be the guy handling the rock the majority of the time. Edwards-Helaire has 458 rushing yards this season, and his 0.01 Rushing NEP per rush is solid. Don't sleep on running back Darrel Williams, too, who caught a passing touchdown from Mahomes last week.
There's more clarity in the LA running back situation -- Austin Ekeler is clearly the alpha male in this backfield. Ekeler has racked up 730 rushing yards and 9 scores this season, and he's also been a workhorse in the passing game, nabbing 58 balls on 75 targets. Although Ekeler is dealing with an ankle injury, he is expected to play.
These two teams rank second and third on offense in our power rankings, and the defenses have tightened up. While the Chiefs rank 14th and the Chargers rank 22nd, the Chiefs have allowed only 65 points in their last six games.
Bets to Consider
The Chiefs are 3.0-point favorites, and the total sits at 52.5 points. Where should you have your money for this one, according to our numbers?
We side with the hotter-than-the-surface-of-the-sun Chiefs in this contest, taking the win 54.1% of the time. We are projecting the score to be a bit tight, with the Chiefs scoring a narrow 27.83 to 26.64 win. It doesn't get much better than that, and the Chargers laying the points makes them a slightly solid bet.
On the total, our model sides with the over, although it isn't a particularly heavy lean in either direction. Our algorithm projects the over to win out 53.76% of the time.
One player prop our projections isn't so sure about is the rushing prop for Clyde-Edwards Helaire, which is set at 59.5 yards (-110). We project him for 51.3 rushing yards, but let me make the case for why this makes sense.
Since returning from an injury that made him miss five weeks, Edwards-Helaire has led the backfield in rushing attempts, racking up 36 attempts over the last three contests. Now, CEH's touches were probably limited in blowing out the Las Vegas Raiders 48-9. Derrick Gore toted the rock nine times last week, his first rushing attempts since the last contest with the Raiders on November 14th.
The Chargers, via our per play metrics, are the league's worst rushing defense, and there are some ugly numbers here. They allowed 144 rushing yards to the Denver Broncos a few weeks back, almost 100 rushing yards to the Cincinnati Bengals in a blowout win, 187 yards to the Baltimore Ravens, and the list goes on.
Expect CEH to have a big night.
Historical Betting Trends
-- The Chiefs have covered in four straight contests against the spread (ATS) during this winning streak.
-- These two teams have already played once this season, and the Chargers pulled out the road win. Can the road team do it again?
-- In this matchup, over the last eight contests, the Chiefs are 7-1 ATS.
