Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 14
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP (FDP): A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $8,800 | 22.0 | 2.50 | 16.2 | 27.3 | 34.7% | 1.28 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,500 | 21.4 | 2.52 | 16.3 | 27.0 | 32.5% | 1.44 |
| Justin Herbert | $8,400 | 21.0 | 2.50 | 15.9 | 26.2 | 29.9% | 1.33 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,100 | 20.2 | 2.50 | 14.2 | 25.5 | 27.0% | 1.21 |
| Tom Brady | $8,200 | 20.2 | 2.46 | 15.4 | 25.3 | 25.6% | 1.26 |
| Taysom Hill | $7,700 | 20.1 | 2.60 | 14.5 | 25.8 | 28.3% | 1.59 |
| Lamar Jackson | $7,900 | 19.7 | 2.49 | 14.1 | 25.6 | 27.0% | 1.20 |
| Cam Newton | $7,400 | 19.1 | 2.57 | 13.6 | 24.6 | 23.6% | 1.43 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,300 | 18.5 | 2.53 | 13.2 | 23.9 | 21.0% | 1.36 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,500 | 18.0 | 2.41 | 13.1 | 23.1 | 16.7% | 1.09 |
| Joe Burrow | $7,100 | 17.8 | 2.50 | 12.4 | 22.9 | 17.4% | 1.18 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | $7,200 | 17.6 | 2.44 | 12.3 | 22.4 | 15.3% | 1.10 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $7,100 | 16.8 | 2.36 | 11.3 | 21.7 | 13.6% | 0.95 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $6,700 | 16.6 | 2.47 | 12.1 | 21.9 | 14.0% | 1.29 |
| Derek Carr | $7,200 | 15.9 | 2.20 | 11.1 | 21.0 | 10.6% | 0.73 |
| Baker Mayfield | $6,500 | 14.8 | 2.27 | 10.5 | 19.4 | 6.7% | 0.83 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $6,300 | 14.4 | 2.28 | 8.7 | 19.9 | 7.7% | 0.86 |
| Zach Wilson | $6,600 | 14.2 | 2.15 | 9.0 | 19.3 | 7.1% | 0.64 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,800 | 13.9 | 2.04 | 9.6 | 18.6 | 5.8% | 0.51 |
| Davis Mills | $6,600 | 12.6 | 1.91 | 7.7 | 17.2 | 3.4% | 0.38 |
| Mike Glennon | $6,200 | 12.0 | 1.94 | 7.4 | 16.4 | 3.1% | 0.44 |
| Jared Goff | $6,400 | 10.8 | 1.68 | 6.9 | 15.5 | 2.0% | 0.27 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | $9,200 | 19.0 | 2.07 | 13.2 | 25.4 | 44.7% | 1.88 |
| Alvin Kamara | $9,000 | 17.8 | 1.98 | 12.2 | 23.8 | 40.8% | 1.57 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $6,900 | 16.5 | 2.39 | 10.7 | 22.4 | 34.1% | 2.70 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,600 | 16.1 | 2.12 | 9.9 | 22.3 | 33.6% | 1.73 |
| Antonio Gibson | $7,400 | 15.8 | 2.13 | 10.8 | 21.5 | 30.2% | 2.10 |
| Joe Mixon | $8,500 | 15.0 | 1.77 | 9.2 | 20.4 | 26.9% | 1.08 |
| Saquon Barkley | $7,300 | 14.4 | 1.98 | 9.3 | 19.6 | 23.2% | 1.55 |
| Javonte Williams | $6,700 | 14.4 | 2.15 | 9.2 | 19.6 | 23.2% | 1.99 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $7,800 | 14.4 | 1.85 | 8.8 | 19.4 | 22.4% | 1.15 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,100 | 14.3 | 2.02 | 9.2 | 20.0 | 25.1% | 1.60 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,500 | 13.8 | 1.84 | 8.5 | 19.2 | 21.3% | 1.17 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $6,500 | 13.0 | 2.00 | 8.1 | 17.5 | 16.0% | 1.55 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,300 | 12.3 | 1.95 | 7.6 | 17.4 | 13.8% | 1.42 |
| James Robinson | $6,400 | 12.1 | 1.88 | 7.3 | 17.3 | 14.6% | 1.29 |
| Melvin Gordon | $6,700 | 10.9 | 1.63 | 6.0 | 16.4 | 12.0% | 0.87 |
| Kareem Hunt | $6,500 | 10.8 | 1.66 | 5.7 | 15.1 | 8.2% | 0.84 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,300 | 10.7 | 2.03 | 5.8 | 15.7 | 9.6% | 1.40 |
| Jeff Wilson | $4,900 | 10.5 | 2.13 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 8.1% | 1.66 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $6,500 | 10.1 | 1.55 | 5.5 | 15.0 | 8.8% | 0.70 |
| Ty Johnson | $4,900 | 9.8 | 2.00 | 5.0 | 14.4 | 6.3% | 1.37 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $5,900 | 9.3 | 1.58 | 5.3 | 14.3 | 6.5% | 0.81 |
| Jermar Jefferson | $5,100 | 8.8 | 1.72 | 4.4 | 12.9 | 4.2% | 0.95 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $7,000 | 8.4 | 1.20 | 3.9 | 12.7 | 3.1% | 0.30 |
| Darrel Williams | $6,500 | 8.3 | 1.27 | 4.3 | 12.2 | 2.7% | 0.36 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | $4,800 | 8.2 | 1.71 | 3.7 | 12.3 | 2.5% | 0.91 |
| JaMycal Hasty | $4,700 | 8.1 | 1.73 | 3.9 | 12.3 | 3.6% | 0.96 |
| Alex Collins | $5,600 | 7.9 | 1.41 | 3.9 | 12.2 | 2.0% | 0.56 |
| Rashaad Penny | $5,300 | 7.7 | 1.45 | 3.3 | 12.2 | 3.0% | 0.65 |
| Ameer Abdullah | $5,200 | 7.2 | 1.38 | 2.7 | 11.5 | 2.6% | 0.61 |
| Mark Ingram | $7,200 | 6.5 | 0.90 | 2.6 | 10.5 | 1.1% | 0.12 |
| Austin Walter | $4,800 | 6.5 | 1.35 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 0.9% | 0.52 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,500 | 6.4 | 1.17 | 2.5 | 10.7 | 1.3% | 0.39 |
| Jeremy McNichols | $5,300 | 5.7 | 1.08 | 1.8 | 9.6 | 0.7% | 0.30 |
| Matt Breida | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.05 | 1.4 | 9.9 | 1.2% | 0.31 |
| Mike Davis | $5,700 | 5.7 | 0.99 | 1.8 | 9.7 | 1.4% | 0.25 |
| Royce Freeman | $4,800 | 5.1 | 1.07 | 1.5 | 9.0 | 0.6% | 0.35 |
| Devontae Booker | $5,300 | 5.1 | 0.97 | 1.5 | 9.1 | 0.5% | 0.25 |
| Samaje Perine | $6,000 | 4.9 | 0.81 | 0.8 | 8.8 | 0.4% | 0.15 |
| Corey Clement | $4,600 | 4.6 | 1.00 | 0.5 | 8.2 | 0.4% | 0.29 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,900 | 4.4 | 0.89 | 0.8 | 8.2 | 0.2% | 0.23 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,800 | 4.2 | 0.72 | 0.4 | 7.9 | 0.2% | 0.10 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom /Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | $8,500 | 15.6 | 1.83 | 11.6 | 19.3 | 21.7% | 1.27 |
| Tyreek Hill | $8,700 | 15.3 | 1.76 | 10.3 | 20.7 | 27.1% | 1.02 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,200 | 14.9 | 1.82 | 10.1 | 20.9 | 27.6% | 1.15 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,700 | 13.9 | 1.80 | 9.8 | 18.1 | 16.0% | 1.14 |
| Mike Williams | $6,900 | 13.3 | 1.93 | 7.9 | 18.2 | 19.6% | 1.34 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $7,200 | 13.3 | 1.85 | 8.1 | 18.5 | 19.3% | 1.17 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,800 | 12.9 | 1.65 | 8.7 | 17.0 | 12.7% | 0.74 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $6,700 | 12.8 | 1.92 | 9.3 | 16.1 | 7.9% | 1.53 |
| Tee Higgins | $6,800 | 12.4 | 1.82 | 7.7 | 16.5 | 11.6% | 1.12 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,300 | 12.1 | 1.66 | 7.7 | 16.3 | 11.7% | 0.81 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $7,300 | 12.0 | 1.64 | 7.6 | 16.5 | 12.0% | 0.81 |
| D.J. Moore | $6,800 | 11.8 | 1.74 | 7.2 | 17.0 | 15.1% | 0.99 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,700 | 11.8 | 1.76 | 7.9 | 15.3 | 6.1% | 1.06 |
| Mike Evans | $7,200 | 11.7 | 1.63 | 7.1 | 16.6 | 12.7% | 0.78 |
| Terry McLaurin | $7,100 | 11.5 | 1.62 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 9.5% | 0.73 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,500 | 11.0 | 1.70 | 6.6 | 15.3 | 9.0% | 0.87 |
| Julio Jones | $6,500 | 10.9 | 1.68 | 6.8 | 15.3 | 8.0% | 0.90 |
| Marquise Brown | $7,000 | 10.9 | 1.56 | 5.9 | 16.1 | 11.1% | 0.73 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,500 | 10.9 | 1.98 | 6.9 | 14.1 | 4.7% | 1.50 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,400 | 9.9 | 1.54 | 6.4 | 13.4 | 2.5% | 0.60 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,100 | 9.5 | 1.56 | 5.5 | 13.7 | 3.8% | 0.68 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,300 | 9.5 | 1.51 | 5.4 | 13.8 | 5.7% | 0.61 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,400 | 9.2 | 1.44 | 5.5 | 12.6 | 1.4% | 0.46 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $5,800 | 9.2 | 1.59 | 5.4 | 13.4 | 2.0% | 0.75 |
| Russell Gage | $6,200 | 9.1 | 1.47 | 5.4 | 12.8 | 2.6% | 0.54 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | $5,600 | 8.8 | 1.58 | 5.0 | 12.8 | 1.8% | 0.72 |
| Laviska Shenault | $5,300 | 8.7 | 1.63 | 5.7 | 12.0 | 1.1% | 0.77 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,900 | 8.3 | 1.41 | 4.8 | 11.3 | 0.9% | 0.41 |
| Sterling Shepard | $5,700 | 8.3 | 1.46 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 1.5% | 0.56 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,400 | 8.0 | 1.48 | 4.3 | 11.9 | 2.3% | 0.65 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,900 | 7.8 | 1.33 | 4.8 | 11.3 | 0.5% | 0.37 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,800 | 7.8 | 1.35 | 4.1 | 11.9 | 2.2% | 0.47 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,200 | 7.8 | 1.50 | 4.8 | 11.1 | 0.4% | 0.59 |
| Josh Reynolds | $5,300 | 7.7 | 1.45 | 3.3 | 12.1 | 2.2% | 0.62 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,500 | 7.4 | 1.35 | 3.7 | 10.8 | 0.8% | 0.43 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $5,700 | 7.4 | 1.30 | 4.6 | 10.3 | 0.2% | 0.29 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,000 | 7.2 | 1.20 | 3.3 | 11.4 | 1.8% | 0.35 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,500 | 7.2 | 1.30 | 3.4 | 11.8 | 2.0% | 0.52 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,500 | 7.1 | 1.30 | 3.3 | 10.8 | 0.5% | 0.41 |
| Tim Patrick | $5,700 | 6.9 | 1.21 | 3.9 | 10.7 | 0.8% | 0.35 |
| Jalen Guyton | $5,200 | 6.9 | 1.32 | 3.1 | 10.8 | 1.2% | 0.50 |
| Laquon Treadwell | $5,100 | 6.3 | 1.24 | 3.2 | 9.3 | 0.4% | 0.34 |
| Denzel Mims | $4,700 | 6.3 | 1.34 | 2.3 | 10.1 | 0.1% | 0.52 |
| Josh Palmer | $4,700 | 6.2 | 1.32 | 2.6 | 9.5 | 0.1% | 0.45 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,000 | 6.1 | 1.22 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 0.5% | 0.38 |
| Byron Pringle | $5,300 | 5.9 | 1.11 | 3.5 | 8.3 | 0.0% | 0.14 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,100 | 5.6 | 1.09 | 2.0 | 9.1 | 0.3% | 0.29 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,000 | 5.5 | 1.11 | 1.6 | 9.5 | 0.4% | 0.36 |
| Keelan Cole | $4,700 | 5.5 | 1.17 | 1.8 | 8.7 | 0.1% | 0.34 |
| Zay Jones | $4,800 | 5.2 | 1.09 | 2.7 | 8.1 | 0.1% | 0.23 |
| Gabriel Davis | $4,800 | 5.2 | 1.09 | 1.9 | 8.8 | 0.2% | 0.30 |
| Braxton Berrios | $4,700 | 5.2 | 1.11 | 2.3 | 7.9 | 0.1% | 0.23 |
| Bryan Edwards | $5,000 | 5.1 | 1.03 | 1.7 | 8.2 | 0.0% | 0.22 |
| Curtis Samuel | $4,800 | 5.1 | 1.05 | 2.3 | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.17 |
| Chester Rogers | $5,200 | 5.0 | 0.96 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 0.2% | 0.17 |
| Rashard Higgins | $4,700 | 4.8 | 1.02 | 1.2 | 8.3 | 0.2% | 0.28 |
| Rashod Bateman | $5,400 | 4.7 | 0.87 | 1.6 | 7.8 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Sammy Watkins | $5,300 | 4.7 | 0.89 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 0.0% | 0.13 |
| Breshad Perriman | $4,500 | 4.6 | 1.03 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 0.1% | 0.26 |
| Nico Collins | $5,100 | 4.5 | 0.88 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.17 |
| DeAndre Carter | $5,200 | 4.4 | 0.84 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.07 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,600 | 4.4 | 0.95 | 1.7 | 6.9 | 0.1% | 0.13 |
| DeSean Jackson | $5,100 | 4.3 | 0.84 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 0.0% | 0.10 |
| Chris Conley | $4,800 | 4.1 | 0.86 | 0.9 | 7.3 | 0.1% | 0.17 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,500 | 13.1 | 1.75 | 9.0 | 17.8 | 38.9% | 1.03 |
| George Kittle | $7,100 | 12.1 | 1.71 | 7.9 | 16.4 | 33.4% | 0.91 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,900 | 10.2 | 1.48 | 5.2 | 14.7 | 23.8% | 0.56 |
| Rob Gronkowski | $7,000 | 9.9 | 1.42 | 5.7 | 14.5 | 21.9% | 0.52 |
| Kyle Pitts | $5,900 | 9.4 | 1.59 | 4.5 | 14.1 | 19.8% | 0.78 |
| Foster Moreau | $5,200 | 8.7 | 1.68 | 5.2 | 12.1 | 11.1% | 0.88 |
| Dalton Schultz | $5,700 | 7.9 | 1.38 | 4.6 | 11.2 | 6.7% | 0.42 |
| Dawson Knox | $6,000 | 7.7 | 1.28 | 4.4 | 11.5 | 10.6% | 0.38 |
| Austin Hooper | $5,000 | 7.6 | 1.53 | 3.8 | 10.9 | 7.0% | 0.65 |
| Noah Fant | $5,800 | 7.3 | 1.26 | 3.8 | 10.8 | 7.8% | 0.33 |
| Jared Cook | $5,100 | 7.0 | 1.36 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 7.5% | 0.54 |
| Gerald Everett | $4,800 | 6.7 | 1.39 | 3.6 | 9.9 | 3.8% | 0.48 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | $4,500 | 6.6 | 1.47 | 3.9 | 9.7 | 3.3% | 0.57 |
| C.J. Uzomah | $5,100 | 5.8 | 1.14 | 2.6 | 8.3 | 1.1% | 0.18 |
| Evan Engram | $5,300 | 5.6 | 1.06 | 1.9 | 9.1 | 3.0% | 0.23 |
| Geoff Swaim | $4,500 | 5.5 | 1.21 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 0.6% | 0.32 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | $4,500 | 4.8 | 1.08 | 1.6 | 7.9 | 1.7% | 0.27 |
| Brock Wright | $4,500 | 4.8 | 1.07 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 2.0% | 0.30 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,600 | 4.4 | 0.95 | 1.2 | 8.0 | 2.1% | 0.27 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | $4,700 | 4.2 | 0.90 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 0.7% | 0.17 |
| Ryan Griffin | $4,700 | 4.1 | 0.88 | 1.4 | 6.8 | 0.7% | 0.13 |
| Donald Parham Jr. | $4,600 | 4.1 | 0.89 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 0.8% | 0.18 |
| Pharaoh Brown | $4,600 | 3.9 | 0.84 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 0.4% | 0.18 |
| Juwan Johnson | $4,400 | 3.8 | 0.87 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 0.2% | 0.19 |
| Nick Vannett | $4,700 | 3.7 | 0.78 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 0.1% | 0.11 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,400 | 3.2 | 0.72 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 0.1% | 0.13 |
| Cameron Brate | $4,800 | 3.1 | 0.65 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.5% | 0.10 |
| Tommy Tremble | $4,700 | 3.0 | 0.63 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 0.6% | 0.10 |
