FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Monday Night (Rams at 49ers)

Week 10 wraps up with an NFC West matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. Despite being on the road, the Rams come in as slight favorites.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

Game Overview

Online Sportsbook has this one pegged for a high-scoring affair with an over/under set at 50.5 points. The visiting Rams are favored by just 3.5 points, which also suggests a back-and-forth matchup.

According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, Los Angeles ranks 12th in pass defense and 21st in rush defense. Comparatively, San Francisco ranks 16th and 9th, respectively, in those categories.

Additionally, the Rams are a particularly tough matchup for opposing wide receivers, per Brandon Gdula, ranking fourth versus the position in adjusted FanDuel points allowed per target.

Slate Strategy

If we give a quick glance at numberFire's projections, we find Matthew Stafford ($17,000) and Cooper Kupp ($16,000) as the only players projected for 20-plus points, and they exceed all other options by a good margin. No surprises there.

Both players have averaged right around 22 FanDuel points per game this season, which also bests the field pretty handily.

Among players with at least 100 drop backs this season, Stafford ranks first overall in both Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back and Passing Success Rate.

Meanwhile, Kupp has naturally been a big part of Stafford's production, owning a hefty 32.1% target share and 32.6% air yards share. The recent loss of Robert Woods to a torn ACL figures to further solidify Kupp's massive role in this passing attack.

Needless to say, both players will be popular MVP candidates tonight, but it's for a good reason.

Flipping over to the other side, it's Jimmy Garoppolo ($14,000) and Deebo Samuel ($13,000) who pop up next in numberFire's model.

Garoppolo isn't a particularly exciting fantasy quarterback, but he's cracked 20 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he isn't likely to see nearly as much attention at MVP compared to Stafford and Kupp.

Samuel has a Kupp-esque 31.9% target share and 33.9% air yards share, which has helped him to four games with 100-plus yards, three of which cracked 150. That being said, the return of George Kittle ($10,500) and the reemergence of Brandon Aiyuk ($7,500) could reduce Samuel's volume moving forward, as his target share dipped to 23.1% in Week 9.

Perhaps the best contrarian options to use in the multiplier slot are the starting running backs on both sides: Darrell Henderson ($12,000) and Elijah Mitchell ($11,500).

Henderson's averaged a rock-solid 22.1 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game with a 75.0% snap rate this season. While his snap rate has dipped a bit over the past two, that may have more to do with game script reasons in both cases.

Mitchell's 17.8 adjusted opportunities per game may not jump off the page, but he saw a season-high 5 targets in a negative game script last week, which is an encouraging sign for his role moving forward. Furthermore, pass-catching back JaMycal Hasty has been ruled out, which could further solidify Mitchell's increasing usage as a receiver.

Perhaps the last guy to consider at MVP -- outside of widening one's scope when mass multi-entering contests -- is George Kittle. Week 9 marked Kittle's first game since Week 4, and he didn't miss a beat, posting a 20.5% target share and 73.2% snap rate while cracking 100 yards for the first time this year. He was also removed from the 49ers' final injury report, so he should be fully healthy now.

While tight ends tend to be poor bets at MVP, a healthy Kittle is one of the few exceptions.

After the aforementioned seven players, the rest of the bunch are probably best suited for flex consideration.

On San Francisco, Brandon Aiyuk looks like an excellent value. A complete afterthought earlier in the year, he recorded a 20.5% target share last week and saw a season-high 92.9% snap rate. Now back to being a full-time player, we should happily scoop him up at just the 13th-highest salary.

Things are a little murkier on the Rams' side, where we find a slew of pass-catching options between Odell Beckham ($10,000), Van Jefferson ($8,000), Tyler Higbee ($7,500), and Ben Skowronek ($6,000).

At his salary, Beckham is probably a poor bet to pay off after just joining the team this week, as he figures to see limited snaps. Still, with the loss of Woods, it's not crazy to throw him in some lineups and hope he has a big play or two.

And speaking of Woods, it's actually Skowronek who will reportedly inherit his role in the offense going forward. This theoretically sets up as a shoo-in value, though it's worth noting that's played limited snaps and has all of three targets all season.

Jefferson rates as the best of this group in numberFire's projections, and he was enjoying a rising role prior to the Beckham signing. He could be the biggest loser long-term, but at least for this game, he should maintain a viable role. After seeing a bump in playing time over the past three weeks, Jefferson's has enjoyed a 16.4% target share, 91.5% snap rate, and 93.8% route rate.

Higbee hasn't popped in the box score much, but he remains in play as a tight end who rarely leaves the field (89.1% snap rate; 81.7% route rate). He owns a 14.3% target share this season.

Lastly, you could roll the dice with Sony Michel ($7,000) in case his recent rise in snaps sticks. He's seen a 35.7% snap rate and 13.0 adjusted opportunities over the last two weeks.