NFL

Monday Night Football Betting: Will the Chiefs Get Back on Track Against the Giants?

The numberFire model has five-of-five star confidence in a spread bet tonight. Which side is it backing?

The Kansas City Chiefs are unexpectedly struggling heading into this week’s Monday Night matchup against the Giants, who enter scuffling as well. Those struggles may have been a bit more predictable, yet recent injuries on the offensive side of the ball may be partially to blame more so than overall talent.

Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):

Team nERD nERD Rank Off NEP Rank Def NEP Rank
Kansas City Chiefs -0.7 18 4 31
New York Giants -3.67 24 23 20


Inside the Standard Bets

Our model is giving the edge to the Chiefs. It has them winning outright 60.6% of the time yet covering the 10.5-point spread a measly 25.7% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs moneyline odds are -500 (implied probability 83.3%), and odds to cover the 10.5-point spread are set at -108 (51.9%). While the oddsmakers are heavily favoring the Chiefs, our model is saying to stay away from these wagers.

Our model rates the best bet as taking the Giants +10.5 points at -112 odds (52.8% compared to 74.3%). We have this as a rare five-star betting opportunity. Add to that Kansas City has failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games, and this bet looks even better.

New York winning outright with odds of +385 (implied probability of 20.6% compared to our model’s estimate of 39.4%) is still a good value (rated three-stars) but is obviously the riskier play.

The point total for this matchup is 52.5 points. Our model gives a 56.1% chance that the under hits (-115 odds, 53.5% implied), so there is value there -- though taking the under is never as fun.

Player Prop Value Bets

Tonight’s quarterbacks are going to garner much of the attention tonight. Patrick Mahomes is in the midst of his toughest season so far (both on and off the field) and Daniel Jones is the definition of a high-variance quarterback.

Instead of the passing lines, let’s look at both quarterbacks’ rushing yardage line bets, which are both set at 21.5. This season each quarterback has gone over that total in five of their seven games, so both quarterbacks are well-positioned to go over their rushing yardage line. They both are projected by numberFire's daily fantasy model for over 25 rushing yards as well.

Because of the possibility of designed runs for Jones’ and the injuries to pass catchers, I like the alternative rushing line of 25-plus yards at +108 odds a little better than the above bet. It's a small price for a sizable increase in value.

Each time Jones has rushed for more than 21 yards, he’s also cleared 25 yards as well. Kansas City has also allowed an average of 21 rushing yards purely quarterback scrambles against quarterbacks not named Ryan Tannehill or Taylor Heinicke.

With the Giants wide receiver corps banged up, Evan Engram should get more opportunities. The Chiefs have given up 82.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season per Pro Football Reference -- the most in the league. I like Engram to go over 30.5 (-110) receiving yards tonight; he's projected for 34.3 per numberFire.

Final Notes

In addition to Kansas City being 0-6 against-the-spread (ATS) over their last six games home games, they are 4-11 ATS over their last fifteen regular-season games.

The Giants are 3-3 ATS on the road in their last six trips. The over hit in three of those six games.