Monday Night Football Betting: The Rainy Showdown Between Geno Smith and Jameis Winston
|Team||nERD||nERD Rank||Off NEP Rank||Def NEP Rank|
|New Orleans Saints||1.67||11||19||9|
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model is expecting a close one. It has the Saints winning outright 54.7% of the time yet covering the 4.5-point spread only 38.3% of the time. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Saints moneyline odds are -210 (implied probability 67.7%) and odds to cover the 4.5-point spread are -105 (51.2%). Those numbers are pretty bad if you’re looking to bet the Saints tonight.
Our model finds the best value to be taking Seattle to win outright with odds of +176 (implied probability of 36.2% compared to our model’s estimate of 45.3%). Betting the Seahawks spread with 4.5 points at -115 odds (53.5% compared to 61.7%) is the safer play, but it has a little bit less value per our model.
The point total line for this matchup is only 41.5 points, and with our model giving a 57.4% chance of the over hit (-114 odds, 53.3% implied), there is value in hammering the over. Although, tonight's forecast may not be heavily weighted into the model as an extreme weather situation.
Player Prop Value Bets
Saints star running back Alvin Kamara is pretty much the only rushing threat for the team. Backup Dwayne Washington and touchdown vulture Taysom Hill both out tonight. Even so, the odds of Kamara scoring at -290 (implied probability of 74.3%) is too steep of a price. Touchdowns are always tough to predict, and the low point total makes this a tough bet.
Looking at the Saints’ last game against the Washington Football Team is not a fair indicator. Kamara scored two touchdowns, but Washington has given up the most touchdowns in the league so far this season.
However, Kamara can still be targeted for his production; the Seahawks allow the second most rushing yards per game (140.8 yds/g). Saints’ receiver Deonte Harris is also out, and that should boost Kamara's receiving volume as well. That is why taking Alvin Kamara total rushing and receiving yards over 126.5 (-113) is the better value than his touchdown prop.
Looking at the quarterbacks, both have similar passing yardage lines, with Geno Smith at 206.5 yards (-110 for both over/under) and Jameis Winston at 204.5 yards (-110). In WInston’s last two games, he put up 226 and 279 passing yards against average (New York Giants) and below average (Washington Football Team) passing defenses.
Seattle’s passing defense is somewhere in between. The Seahawks are ranked 20th in Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, and they only have only two interceptions this season. Having Kamara and a healthy Marquez Callaway as part of the passing game should help Winston surpass his yardage prop.
The New Orleans defense has been tough against the run; they are allowing just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. However, since they stifled Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' passing game in the opening week, they have surrendered an average of 306.3 passing yards on an average of 42.5 attempts per game against Sam Darnold, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, and Taylor Heinicke.
Those four quarterbacks combined for an average passer rating of just 75.7, but the passing volume is there, and Smith has better weapons (Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf) than many of those four to earn free yards after the catch. Even in a monsoon, Seattle likely needs Smith to fling it to score points, and his yardage prop is a below-average NFL total to surpass.
The Seahawks are 3-3 against-the-spread (ATS) at home over their last six games, and they are 0-2 this season. New Orleans is 2-1 ATS on the road in 2021.
The under has hit in each of the last five Saints' away games, and it has also hit in five of the last six home contests for Seattle.