FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6 Sunday Night (Seahawks at Steelers)
On NFL odds, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 4.5-point home favorites against the Seattle Seahawks in a game with a lowly 42.5-point total. That makes the implied score 23.50-19.00 in favor of the Steelers.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Najee Harris, Steelers ($16,500)
It's not often that a non-quarterback is likely to be the chalk MVP. It's also not often that a non-quarterback is the highest-salaried player on a single-game slate. But this is a weird slate, and Najee Harris could have a monster game.
The volume will be there. He's handled 78 of the Steelers' 90 running-back carries, and he's got a 20% target share, tops among all backs and tied for the highest clip on the Steelers. If that's not enough for you, Seattle is giving up the third-most FanDuel points per game (27.8) to running backs.
It's all systems go for Harris, who we project for a slate-high 17.7 FanDuel points.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers ($15,000)
While Harris could go bonkers, Ben Roethlisberger is my favorite MVP pick.
I'm very interested in using a home favorite quarterback in the multiplier spot when he might not be the most popular MVP, and with how much Big Ben targets Harris, you can use Harris and Roethlisberger together.
Seattle has permitted the 13th-most FanDuel points per game (21.1) to quarterbacks, and maybe Pittsburgh's touchdowns come via the air instead of on the ground.
Our model has Roethlisberger totaling 15.9 FanDuel points and ranks him as the slate's number-two play.
Geno Smith, Seahawks ($13,000)
It would take some guts to use Geno Smith as your MVP in a road matchup with Pittsburgh, but whenever a quarterback is likely to be a bit overlooked for MVP on a single-gamer, you need to at least consider him as your multiplier.
The Steelers aren't a terrible matchup. They're surrendering the 14th-most FanDuel points per game (20.10) to signal-callers, and Smith looked respectable last week in relief, throwing for 131 yards and a score (along with a pick) on 17 attempts. He also ran it three times for 23 yards, and the rushing juice raises his floor and ceiling. Plus, Geno has a dynamic one-two punch at wideout at his disposal.
I'm sure Seattle coach Pete Carroll is going to want to run it as long as the 'Hawks are competitive, but they may have to resort to a more pass-heavy offense if they get into a negative game script. We project Smith for 14.4 FanDuel points.
Diontae Johnson ($13,500) and Chase Claypool ($12,000), Steelers
If I'm using Big Ben at MVP, then I have to plug one of Diontae Johnson or Chase Claypool, as well, and if you wanted to get weird, you could fade Harris and stack Roethlisberger with both of his top wideouts.
I prefer Claypool between the two of them, but they both make for nice picks against a Seahawks D that has allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (35.8) to receivers.
Claypool leads Pittsburgh with a 32% air yards share while adding an 18% target share. Johnson checks in with a 26% air yards share and 20% target share.
We have Johnson scoring 11.1 FanDuel points and Claypool getting 10.1, which makes them nearly identical point-per-dollar options.
D.K. Metcalf ($13,000) and Tyler Lockett ($11,500), Seahawks
They're seeing about the same usage this year. Metcalf sports a 26% target share and 38% air yards share. Lockett has a 27% target share and 37% air yards share. We don't know how those numbers will shake out with Smith under center, but with a projected negative game script on tap, plugging in one of Lockett or Metcalf makes sense.
The matchup is a good one, too, as Pittsburgh is giving up the second-most FanDuel points per game (38.0) to wideouts.
Our algorithm projects Metcalf and Lockett for 11.4 and 9.9 FanDuel points, respectively, and they're about even as far as point-per-dollar picks.
Alex Collins, Seahawks ($9,500)
With Chris Carson sidelined again, Alex Collins figures to jump into a lead-back role. Carson sat last week, and Collins played 71% of the snaps and handled 15 of 20 running-back carries, adding two grabs for 25 yards.
Collins getting some pass-game work is good to see since Seattle could wind up in a negative game script in this one. Plus, Collins will likely find it tough on the ground as Pittsburgh is surrendering the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game (14.2) to running backs.
At the end of the day, a lead back at $9,500 is enticing in any matchup. We have Collins rated as the slate's top point-per-dollar play and project him for 11.2 FanDuel points.
James Washington, Steelers ($8,000)
James Washington has been in on 80% and 82% of the snaps over the last two games with JuJu Smith-Schuster injured. He benefits from the same juicy matchup than Claypool and Johnson do, and the salary is handy.
Over those last two outings, Washington has totaled three catches for 20 yards and four receptions for 69 yards. He's always been a big-play weapon, and that's appealing on single-game slates.
We don't expect much from Washington, forecasting him for only 2.4 FanDuel points, and he could dud if the Steelers get a lead and go run-heavy. But I like him as a dart throw.
DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks ($5,000)
If you aren't into Collins and/or think Seattle gets rolled, DeeJay Dallas is a viable punt.
He logged a 22% snap rate last week in a loss and could play a similar role in this one, operating as primarily a pass-game piece. He finished with four carries and two targets a week ago and could see more work if Smith checks down a lot. With that said, if Seattle gets a lead, Dallas may not do much at all.
Our model sees Dallas scoring just 4.1 FanDuel points.