Week 6 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Welcome to the Game Scripts to Target article for the 2021 season. Each week, we'll be taking a look at specific games to target for daily fantasy tournaments. Stacking games has always been a popular option in GPPs, as it allows you to reach for upside with the back-and-forth scoring.
Dissecting game scripts should be a huge part of your process when building lineups in NFL daily fantasy.
How will the game play out? Will it be high-paced with lots of potential for fantasy points to be scored? Does it set up well for one team, both teams, or neither? A running back could go from a lock one week as a home favorite to a complete avoid the next as a double-digit road underdog because the expected game scripts in these contests are completely different.
Projecting these outcomes can be extremely difficult for one person. We can use the lines and totals to see what oddsmakers think and go from there. A great resource is numberFire's Daily Fantasy Matchup Heat Map, which provides betting-related numbers -- implied totals, over/unders, and spreads -- as well as custom metrics that show how the teams will match up against each other. This gives us a much better handle on how games are likely to play out, and we can take advantage of that in our lineups.
Let's look at some game scripts to target for this week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
A 51.5-point over/under is what we see for this AFC matchup, and given the offensive options on both sides, it wouldn't be a surprise to see this game hit the over. Both teams are in the top 11 of the league for the most plays run per game, which enables a higher ceiling of points for all players involved.
Let's jump right into the Chargers' offense, which is led by quarterback Justin Herbert ($8,000). Over his last three games, Herbert has posted 30.8, 21.2, and 42.8 FanDuel points due to his 12 total touchdowns in that time. That's an elite level of production supported by his 38 or more passing attempts in all five games this season. That level of passing volume gives him a massive ceiling, and he is a player we can absolutely trust in a game stack.
The Chargers' passing attack is highly condensed with Keenan Allen ($7,100) and Mike Williams ($8,000) accounting for a combined 52.0% market share of targets. This has led to massive production for Williams (overall WR2) and Allen (WR17), and both can be stacked with Herbert. Williams did miss practice Thursday, so check his status.
The Ravens come into this game allowing the sixth-most (25.8) FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, putting Austin Ekeler ($8,400) at the top of the list for a game stack. After failing to see a single target in Week 1, Ekeler has gone on to rack up at least five targets in each of the last four games. He has a clear path to 20-plus total touches, and that makes him a threat for 25-plus FanDuel points.
We also see the Ravens allowing 15.6 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, which is the fourth-most in the league. This puts not only Jared Cook ($5,400) in a good spot but also Donald Parham Jr. ($4,900). Cook is still playing on more snaps (60.6%) overall on the season compared to Parham (17.8%), but we have seen Parham's snap percentage increase in each of the past three weeks.
A stack with Herbert and Ekeler plus one of Williams/Allen is likely a popular stacking option. Herbert plus both Williams and Allen will also be popular. Consider adding Cook as an option for the salary relief and the chance to be different in tournaments.
Lamar Jackson ($8,200) leads the Ravens and is coming off of his best game of the season, posting 41.88 FanDuel points in a comeback win against the Indianapolis Colts. He threw for 4 touchdowns and 442 yards while adding in 62 yards on the ground from 14 attempts. The game did go to overtime and it was a negative game script, but the 43 passing attempts are good to see, especially after he was up at 37 attempts the week prior.
Jackson has a strong floor and a high ceiling, which can be on full display in a game with a 51.5-point over/under. You can honestly play Jackson solo if you want to load up on the Chargers' offensive weapons.
When it comes to the Ravens' backfield, I have zero interest. None, zero, zilch. They aren't producing enough fantasy points to be worth a roster spot -- not to mention there are three or four of them splitting time, with none of them seeing more than 50.0% of the snaps consistently.
Moving on to the pass-catching options for the Ravens, that brings us to Marquise Brown ($7,000) and Mark Andrews ($6,300). As you might be able to assume with Jackson having a huge game last week, so did his top two receiving options. They both hold a 23.9% target market share, which is tied for the highest on the team. They are both playing on more than 70% of the snaps, both running a route on more than 80% of the passing plays, and both hold an average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.0 yards or higher.
They are by far the two best options to stack with Jackson, but you can also consider Rashod Bateman ($5,000), who is set to make his NFL debut. Bateman is being activated from injured reserve, and the Ravens have ruled out Sammy Watkins.
A stack of Jackson plus Brown and Andrews gives you massive exposure to Baltimore's passing offense (and ground game with Lamar), and then you could look to use Williams or Allen as the bring-back piece.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
With a slate-high 56.0-point over/under, this should be a popular game stack.
We all know the offensive power the Kansas City Chiefs can bring, but what's just as important is the fact their defense is horrible. This enables opposing offenses to hit their ceiling of production, setting up a perfect environment for a game stack.
Both teams are in the top half of the league in average seconds per play when in situation-neutral scenarios. This is great to see since we know the offenses won't be wasting time when the game is close. That means more plays run and more potential fantasy points.
Patrick Mahomes ($9,000) is looking like his usual self fantasy-wise with 20-plus FanDuel points in every single game this season, but the Chiefs are 2-3. Ultimately, we don't care about their record -- we care that Mahomes is producing regardless of the outcome of the game, regardless of home or away, and regardless of the matchup.
Speaking of matchup, this is the ideal spot for Mahomes since Washington is allowing the second-most (28.1) FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this season. My hot take of the week: Mahomes posts his best game of the season, surpassing the 33 FanDuel points he registered in Week 1.
If Mahomes is going to be posting a season-high in fantasy points, that means we want to be stacking him with his two favorite receiving options -- Tyreek Hill ($8,700) and Travis Kelce ($8,500). This comes with a big asterisk because Hill did not practice on Thursday and is dealing with a quad injury. This is a major story to watch, because Hill leads the team with a 27.9% target share and runs a route on a team-high 87.6% of KC's passing plays.
Hill has been Mahomes go-to guy for a few seasons, and if he were to miss this game, it would boost Kelce to being one of the top plays on the entire slate as well as open up value options on the Chiefs. To be clear, if Hill plays, stack him with Mahomes and don't think twice.
If Hill is out, we should consider Mecole Hardman ($5,500) as one of the best options with his 16.4% target share, which is the third-highest on the team. He's not the most consistent performer, but normally, he has to compete with Hill and Kelce for targets. Removing Hill would open a clear path to upside for Hardman.
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire on injured reserve, Darrel Williams ($5,200) is expected to see a good amount of work in the backfield. Williams saw 10 total touches last week after CEH left the game while playing on 40.5% of the snaps and running a route on 37.5% of passing plays.
The status of Hill creates a bit of a question mark, but a stack of Mahomes and Kelce plus Williams is still very strong considering their salaries and the matchup. If Hill plays, you can also look to stack him with Mahomes and Kelce, a stack we've seen produce massive fantasy points in recent seasons.
On the Washington side of things, the big news is that Terry McLaurin ($7,400) is dealing with a hamstring issue and is listed as questionable. However, McLaurin should be able to go, per some reports.
This is big news for Washington since McLaurin is their best offensive option and has been playing on 94.4% of the snaps this season. His 30.4% target market share is nearly 20 percentage points higher than the next-closest player on WFT. With the Chiefs allowing 33.3 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers, McLauris should be in for a big day if he can play.
Antonio Gibson ($6,700) has been quietly consistent this season with at least 14.5 FanDuel points in each of his last three games but not more than 20 FanDuel points in any. He has seen between 13 and 23 touches in every game, which should only benefit him this week with the lackluster KC defense on the other side. Kansas City allows the 11th most (23.9) FanDuel points per game to running backs, putting Gibson in a strong spot.
Taylor Heinicke ($7,300) has posted 21 or more FanDuel points in three of his four starts this season, and while I would never compare him to Patrick Mahomes, there's an argument to be made for using Heinicke in this game stack. The group of players the Chiefs call their defense is allowing a league-worst 28.7 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. They have shown nothing this season that would make me worried about rostering Heinicke this week as long as McLaurin suits up.
Leading a KC-WFT game stack with Heinicke should be far less popular than starting with Mahomes, and given the soft matchup, you should be considering it as an option. The number-one guy to pair with Heinicke is McLaurin, who is also a great bring-back piece if you are stacking Kansas City.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
While the Rams are the better team in this matchup, it has to be noted that both teams are in the top six in pace this season. Both teams can push the pace, and that's ideal for DFS.
The Giants' injury situation is a mess, and we need to break it down. Saquon Barkley ($6,500) didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday and is unlikely to play. Same for Kenny Golladay ($6,000), who is dealing with a knee injury. All three of Sterling Shepard ($6,200), Darius Slayton ($5,500), and Kadarius Toney ($6,000) were limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
Quarterback, Daniel Jones ($7,200) is close to playing after leaving last week's game with a concussion. Some moving parts could change things leading up to Sunday morning, but there are viable options for stacking.
With Jones on the path to playing, the Giants will be that much stronger on offense, and he should be considered a bit of a sneaky option this week. The Rams are known for having a good defense, but in reality, they are in the top half of the league for the most FanDuel points allowed per game to quarterbacks.
Stacking for the Giants simply comes down to who is playing. If Golladay is out, look to Toney, Shepard, or Slayton -- in that order. With Barkley almost certainly out, Devontae Booker ($5,900) is primed for another large role in the offense. Booker went for 19 total touches and 19.3 FanDuel points last week against the Dallas Cowboys after Barkley left with an injury.
Jones plus Booker and one of the wide receivers is a solid stack for a team in a positive passing game script due to being 9.0-point underdogs.
The Rams have three reliable fantasy options to stack with Matthew Stafford ($7,900), who is coming off a season-low 17.5 FanDuel points versus the Seattle Seahawks. That game was last Thursday, giving the Rams a mini-bye week, and hopefully, that sets up Stafford for a rebound game.
One of the Rams' reliable fantasy options is Darrell Henderson ($7,300), who is one of the most consistent running backs in the league so far this campaign. He has played four games this season and has posted a low of 14.1 FanDuel points and a high of 16.4 FanDuel points. With at least 16 total touches in each game, Henderson's role is secure, although he may be lacking in upside a bit.
The Rams have two elite receivers in Cooper Kupp ($8,200) and Robert Woods ($6,900). The Giants are allowing the eighth-most (34.1) FanDuel points per game to wide receivers, and there's no reason both Kupp and Woods can't eat with the Rams' 28.75 implied team total.
The wild card option in this game would be DeSean Jackson ($5,400), who has historically been a Giants' killer, largely in his time on the Philadelphia Eagles. I'll be honest -- I'm taking a few shares of Jackson this week, and all it takes is one long 50-yard touchdown for him to be worth it.
A Stafford-Henderson pairing plus one of Kupp or Woods should be the chalk stack, with most likely running it back with Toney. Going with Jones, Booker, Toney, and one of Kupp or Woods is a stack that will be way more under the radar.