Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 5

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

There aren't many passers I feel entirely great with for Week 5's main slate, but the two I'll be building around are rating out as the top two in median projections: Kyler Murray ($8,500) and Dak Prescott ($8,100). Murray's a very easy case after he's been putting up plus efficiency as a passer after opponent adjustments and is always a threat with his legs.

I talked in detail with Jim Sannes on this week's Heat Check podcast about the appeal of the Dallas Cowboys/New York Giants matchup: the path for a big game from Dak is pretty wide open.

On the other side of that game, Daniel Jones is projecting out pretty well -- as the QB8 from a median perspective. Jones has played above expectation with his passing efficiency and has averaged 6.8 rushes and 47.0 yards per game (second-best on the slate behind only Jalen Hurts [$8,100]).

Running Back

Simulation Results

We'll have to stay tuned to the news this week. We could have either the big dog himself -- Derrick Henry ($10,400) -- be the lone big dog at running back or have one, both, or neither of the other large dogs, Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) and Dalvin Cook ($9,000), on the slate. For now, Henry stands alone as the best play at the position easily, and value at the position makes him easy to roster. (Update: McCaffrey is listed as doubtful, and Cook is considered questionable.)

Strong median projections for Austin Ekeler ($7,700), Najee Harris ($7,300), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000), and Saquon Barkley ($7,800) could also allow us to bypass possibly chalky Henry-plus-value running back combinations.

Leonard Fournette ($6,400) and Damien Williams ($5,800) should be key pieces this week to ensure we have the salary to allocate elsewhere and get back up for Henry (or CMC and Cook, depending on their status).

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

The projection for Davante Adams ($8,200) is putting him in his own tier despite a salary that is quite reasonable by comparison to the rest of the position. Behind only Adams, Justin Jefferson ($8,000), and D.J. Moore ($7,900) in median projections is the Cowboys' duo of CeeDee Lamb ($6,900) and Amari Cooper ($7,100) in that promising game against the Giants.

The $7,000 range below them does little to stand out from one another overall.

High air yards projections for Brandin Cooks ($6,300; 123), Kenny Golladay ($6,200; 101), Courtland Sutton ($6,100; 100), and Marvin Jones ($6,600; 102) will naturally help them separate in terms of 20-point odds based on the underlying nature of the simulations and historical receiver ranges of outcomes.

Tight End

Simulation Results

With no Travis Kelce on the slate, we have minimal chances to allocate heavy salary to tight ends, and it's only Darren Waller ($7,400) listed at a salary higher than $6,500. Waller's 75th-percentile outcome rates out as 3.4 points higher than any other tight end's, and his floor/ceiling rating is tops, as well -- as expected.

It might seem weird to have Dalton Schultz ($6,200) rate as a solid value at his new salary, but he does lead the Cowboys in target share (23.0%) since Week 2.

Mike Gesicki ($5,600; 61) trails only Waller (72) in projected air yards among main-slate tight ends and remains a volume-based, yardage-based option even if his offense may not move the ball a lot.