NFL

FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Jets vs. Falcons (10/10/21)

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Atlanta Falcons are 3.0-point favorites over the New York Jets in a game with a 46.0-point total. That makes the implied score 24.50-21.50 in Atlanta's favor.

Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. EST in this London affair.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Matt Ryan, Falcons ($15,500)

I'll get this out of the way at the jump -- it's hard to get excited about Matt Ryan with Calvin Ridley out.

Russell Gage is out, too, but Ridley is obviously the big blow. At first glance, Ryan doesn't seem like the signal-caller to prioritize on this single-game slate. But that's probably what everyone will be thinking, and our model has him tied with Zach Wilson as the slate's top play, projecting them both 17.3 FanDuel points.

Since a huge dud in Week 1, Matty Ice has been better, posting FanDuel outputs of 19.30, 15.62, and 29.02. It's probably too much to expect the ceiling-type game we got a week ago, but Ryan can have a good day in this matchup, and in a game lacking for high-upside players, he has to be on the MVP radar.

Zach Wilson, Jets ($14,500)

Wilson took advantage of a delicious Week 4 matchup with the Tennessee Titans, ripping off 18.68 FanDuel points in what was -- by far -- the easiest matchup of his brief career.

He's got another soft one here.

Atlanta is allowing the third-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (25.60), and Taylor Heinicke just blowtorched them for 27.90 FanDuel points. Wilson adds a little something on the ground, too, with three rushes in two of his four appearances.

Draft percentages are going to be hard to figure out ahead of time, and I think this is a fairly wide-open slate. Wilson, however, may end up as the most popular MVP pick, and we project him for 17.3 FanDuel points.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons ($12,500)

Well, prior to Ridley being ruled out, I was preparing to tell you to fade Cordarrelle Patterson after his three-touchdown eruption due to the fact he played only 30% of the snaps, which was actually a season-low mark. But with Ridley out of the picture, Patterson should be on the field plenty in a variety of roles.

New York is giving up the most FanDuel points per game to running backs (29.4), and Patterson could see more than the six carries he got last week. Or he could be deployed out wide a ton, and if that's the case, he's still in a good spot versus the Jets as Atlanta may force-feed the ball to a guy who has shown he can make plays, something they're not exactly overflowing with on offense sans Ridley.

I'm expecting Patterson to be very popular, so I'll still probably be somewhat light on him -- particularly in the MVP slot -- but our projections have C-Pat generating 12.6 FanDuel points, the most among non-quarterbacks.

Corey Davis, Jets ($10,500)

A guy I'm going to use a lot in the multiplier spot is Corey Davis.

Davis gets a Jets secondary that is giving up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (36.2), and he's been running as the Jets' clear number-one receiver. Davis has played 94% and 82% of the snaps the past two games, and his 22% target share and 31% air yards share are team-best clips by a healthy margin.

A Davis-Wilson stack will likely be chalky, but you can be different by putting Davis in your MVP position. Our algorithm has him scoring 10.2 FanDuel points.

Flex Priorities

Michael Carter, Jets ($10,500)

In Week 4, Michael Carter out-snapped Ty Johnson ($7,000) for the first time this season, playing 51% of the snaps to Johnson's 33%. He amassed 14 total touches (13 carries) but mustered a mere 38 yards, boosting his fantasy output with a two-yard touchdown.

There's no way to sugarcoat it -- Carter has been horribly inefficient as a runner, gaining just 3.4 yards per tote on 37 attempts. He's also hauled in only 6 of 11 targets. But the Jets should be able to be competitive in this game, and it's not crazy to think they might even see a positive game script. The matchup is there, as well, as Atlanta has surrendered the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (23.2).

At the same salary as Corey Davis, Carter is an enticing pivot, especially if you think the Jets win. We have him scoring 10.1 FanDuel points.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($9,500)

With Ridley out, Kyle Pitts leads Atlanta's healthy pass-catchers in target share (16%) and air yards share (23%).

It would stand to reason Pitts -- who has been in on at least 72% of the snaps in the past three games -- would be a focal point for the Falcons' offense on Sunday. You can make a case for using him at MVP, but historically, tight ends just rarely work out as MVPs, according to Brandon Gdula's single-game study, although maybe the Falcons' current situation makes Pitts a unique case.

With a projection of 10.9 FanDuel points, the rookie tight end is the third-best point-per-dollar play on the slate, per our numbers, and figures to be a go-to choice for the masses at his modest salary.

Value/Differentiators

Mike Davis, Falcons ($10,000)

As good as things have gone for Patterson, they've gone the other direction for Mike Davis, who came into the campaign expected to lead the Atlanta backfield in touches. He bottomed out last week with 26 total yards on 13 carries and 2 catches, although he salvaged his day with a touchdown.

But the volume has been decent. He's logged touch counts of 18, 16, 16, and 15 through four games and has played at least 60% of the snaps in every game.

With Atlanta as depleted as they are, Patterson and Davis could share the field a lot in this one. If Patterson lines up out wide a lot, Davis -- who we have producing 10.9 FanDuel points -- could have the backfield to himself, and he may slip through the cracks a bit on this slate.

Younghoe, Koo ($9,000)

Kickers are more viable in lower-scoring games, per Gdula's aforementioned study, so they need to be on our radar for this one. Of the two, Younghoe Koo profiles as the better play. He's on the favorite and projects for 9.2 points, which is 1.8 more than Matt Ammendola ($8,500). We rate Koo as the slate's third-best point-per-dollar play among those with a four-digit salary.

Olamide Zaccheaus, Falcons ($7,500)

Olamide Zaccheaus is this slate's chalk value target.

He's played more snaps in each successive game this year, topping out at an 80% snap rate in Week 4, and that was with Ridley out there. He got just three targets a week ago but saw six looks in Week 2, going for 32 yards and a score in that one.

If there was ever a spot for Zaccheaus to have a good game, this is it. He'll likely be close to an every-down player and gets a friendly matchup. Our projections peg him for 8.9 FanDuel points and rate him as the slate's second-best point-per-dollar play. Just know that he'll be popular and a dud is definitely on the table if Ryan focuses on Patterson and Pitts.