NFL

FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5 Thursday Night (Rams at Seahawks)

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Los Angeles Rams are 2.5-point road favorites over the Seattle Seahawks, and the total is listed at 54.5 points. That makes the implied score 28.50-26.00 in favor of LA.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Matthew Stafford, Rams ($16,000)

Quarterbacking a road favorite that owns a 28.50-point implied total, Matthew Stafford is in a nice spot tonight. Seattle is allowing the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (22.0), and Stafford has taken well to Sean McVay's offense, averaging 23.1 FanDuel points per game this season.

While Stafford doesn't offer the rushing upside that the quarterback on the other sideline does, Stafford's Rams are playing at the league's fastest situation-neutral pace, and he's got the highest single-game FanDuel output between the two of them this year (29.52 points).

Our model ranks Stafford slightly behind Russell Wilson, but I like Stafford a bit more. We project Stafford for 20.6 FanDuel points.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($15,500)

Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and we've all seen what he can do when the 'Hawks let him cook. But that's just not happening so far in 2021.

He's got a single-game high of 32 pass attempts and has thrown exactly 23 passes in Seattle's two wins. The Seahawks are also just 18th in situation-neutral pace. If you think Seattle sees a positive game script, Russ probably doesn't have the upside to be worth using at MVP.

On the flip side, Wilson has run it at least three times in all four games this year, and he could see more passing volume if the Seahawks fall behind.

We rate Russ as the slate's top play, projecting him for 20.9 FanDuel points.

Cooper Kupp, Rams ($14,000)

Cooper Kupp's season-opening heater came to an end last week as he scored 8.9 FanDuel points in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals. That was his first game with fewer than 20.3 FanDuel points, and he's in a spot to rebound as the Seattle D is surrendering the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to receivers (34.0).

Kupp has been the clear focal point of this offense, pacing LA in target share (35%) and air yards share (33%). The target share is nearly double that of anyone else's on the Rams.

He is a fun MVP play who likely won't see as much MVP love as the quarterbacks do. We forecast Kupp to total 15.4 FanDuel points and rank him as the top non-quarterback.

Darrell Henderson, Rams ($13,000)

This might seem a little too weird for the MVP slot, but once you dig into the numbers, it's not weird at all.

Darrell Henderson has some really great usage this season when he's been healthy. According to our JJ Zachariason, Henderson has registered a running-back rush share of 88.2% as well as a target share of 9.2% over the two games in which he's played and finished. In his return from injury last week, he played 90% of the snaps and handled 14 of 17 running-back carries while tacking on 6 targets. Sign me the heck up.

The matchup is there, too, as Seattle has permitted the third-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (28.0).

We have Henderson pegged for 13.1 FanDuel points, and I'll have a lot of him tonight, including a bunch of lineups with him as my multiplier.

Flex Priorities

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($12,000)

Tyler Lockett's FanDuel point totals through four games: 24.0, 27.8, 5.1 and 4.4.

The huge ceiling makes him a great target on single-game slates, and he's unlikely to see as much Jalen Ramsey tonight as D.K. Metcalf ($12,500) does -- although that's how it was a year ago and Lockett had a single-game high of 66 yards and never found the end zone in three matchups with the Rams.

Lockett's 24% target share and 33% air yards share are enticing marks, and he probably won't be quite as chalky as DK given that he's coming off two duds.

Our algorithm projects Lockett for 12.9 FanDuel points, and it feels like you almost have to plug in at least one of him or Metcalf -- who has a projection of 14.1 -- with how much the Seattle passing attack runs through them.

Robert Woods, Rams ($10,000)

Robert Woods hasn't gotten going yet this season, with a Week 4 garbage-time tuddie serving as his first score of the campaign. Woods has a high of 64 yards this year while going under 40 yards in half his outings. The production just hasn't been there despite the Rams' offense playing well.

On the bright side, Woods has played 98%, 88% and 96% of the snaps in the past three weeks, and he's tallied 21 targets in that span. He holds an 18% target share and 21% air yards share for the season, and Sean McVay said this week that getting Woods more involved is a priority.

You have to think Woods will have a big game at some point if he keeps playing nearly all the snaps. It could come in this one with LA's offense in a sweet matchup. We project him for 10.4 FanDuel points.

Value/Differentiators

Van Jefferson, Rams ($9,500)

Woods' slow start has meant good things for Van Jefferson.

The second-year receiver has recorded just a 13% target share, but his 21% air yards share is equal to Woods' clip. Jefferson is playing a decent amount of snaps, too, getting in on at least 68% of the plays every game in 2021, with snap rates as high as 77% and 92%.

Facing a beatable Seattle pass D, Jefferson could pop for a big play.

Alex Collins, Seahawks ($7,500)

Chris Carson ($11,000) hasn't practiced this week and is expected to be a game-time call. If Carson sits, Alex Collins is a screaming value, and he'd probably see a huge draft percentage.

Even with Carson in the fold last week, Collins played 39% of the snaps, rushing 10 times for 46 yards and a score while catching both of his targets for 34 yards. He'd likely get plenty of touches if Carson is ruled out.

Tyler Higbee, Rams ($7,000)

There's a lot to like about Tyler Higbee at this salary.

Higbee played 100% of the snaps in each of LA's first two games, and while his snap rates over the past two have fallen to 75% and 79%, that's still a good number for a tight end. His 13% target share is a respectable mark, and he's been targeted five times in the red zone, including three times inside the 10.

If Carson plays, Higbee will be the best point-per-dollar play among the value options, according to our model. We have him scoring 0.34 touchdowns, which is nearly equal to our touchdown projection for Woods (0.37).