Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 2

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Observations:

There's a tier of six emerging from the simulations in terms of 75th-percentile projections: Josh Allen ($8,100), Kyler Murray ($8,700), Russell Wilson ($8,500), Dak Prescott ($8,000), Tom Brady ($8,200), and Justin Herbert ($7,600). Primarily the dual-threat quarterbacks.

Brady is particularly interesting after an elite showing in an island game on Thursday night in Week 1, but passers projected for tons of fantasy points without much rushing are a little more capped than those who run the ball.

While Herbert's lower salary and game situation (that Los Angeles Chargers/Dallas Cowboys game is juicy) could lead to elevated popularity, quarterbacks don't typically get that popular on main slates.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Observations:

The sheer number of value options is lower this week than last, but we have three backs at or below $7,000 with a median projection of at least 15.0 FanDuel points: Najee Harris ($6,100), Chris Carson ($6,700), and Austin Ekeler ($7,000).

But don't mistake the value for being better than the superstars. Christian McCaffrey ($10,000), Alvin Kamara ($8,800), Dalvin Cook ($9,200), Nick Chubb ($8,400), and Derrick Henry ($8,000) are the top five in raw projections.

Though he's a bit of an afterthought in the sims, I'm eyeing up Ezekiel Elliott ($7,500) and Ekeler in that elite game.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Observations:

You'll be hard-pressed to find projectable value receivers with the same types of ceilings at receiver this week, but we've still got some undersalaried options.

CeeDee Lamb ($6,800), Deebo Samuel ($6,900), Cooper Kupp ($6,200), Ja'Marr Chase ($5,500), Mike Williams ($5,600), and DeVonta Smith ($5,600) all fit that mold.

Wililams and Chase are the two sub-$6,000 receivers with double-digit odds to get to 20.0 FanDuel points.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Observations:

The sims are surprisingly higher on George Kittle than Darren Waller -- just barely -- from a median perspective, but it's the wider range that puts Waller ahead in boom/bust ratio and 75th-percentile outcome. Both are more than viable, but it's Waller ranking first at the position for me.

Kyle Pitts was seventh in route rate (78.9%) in Week 1 among all tight ends, so we shouldn't overreact too much. He also put up 9.4 expected FanDuel points despite an actual return of 5.1.

Tyler Higbee played every snap in Week 1 and accrued a 23.1% target share, third-best among all tight ends.

Dalton Schultz (10.3% target share and 70.1% snap rate in Week 1) is in a likely shootout game, and Adam Trautman (28.6% target share [2nd among tight ends] and 83.3% snap share) could prove viable under $5,000.