7 Daily Fantasy Football Tournament Plays for Week 14
Guaranteed prize pools can drain a bankroll like no other, but with the promise of big prizes looming, they're hard to avoid - especially now that football season is winding down. In order to win one of these things, you'll need to find a combination of high-ceiling guys, and being a bit contrarian doesn't hurt your chances to separate from the rest of the pack.
But for my recommendations, keep reading!
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks - Being contrarian doesn't necessarily mean scraping the bottom of the barrel. Wilson hasn't been super spectacular for the past few weeks, and he has attempted more than 23 passes just once in his past four weeks. He has, however, topped 70 rushing yards in three of his last four weeks.
Wilson has played three straight games against top-nine pass defenses, according our power rankings, which are indicative of Net Expected Points (NEP) rankings. He gets another tough matchup this week. The Eagles rank eighth in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP.
So why recommend him? The Eagles have faced the third-most plays on defense this year and rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The boost in tempo and his ability to add points with his legs makes Wilson, a middle-tier guy in price, a great choice. Others might be hung up on his modest point production of late. Don't let that be you.
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns - Crowell has a lot of tournament variables in his favor this week. He is listed as questionable, he hasn't been dominating, his price is affordable, he put up a dreadful game last week, and he doesn't have that big-name factor. Crowell carried the ball 17 times last week but recorded just 29 yards. Yikes!
The Browns are sticking with the inefficient Brian Hoyer, which is bad news for the passing game. The Colts rank 27th in rushing defense, according to our metrics, which is great news for the running game. Crowell is averaging a solid 13.8 carries per game over his last four but has topped 10.1 PPR points just once in that span.
Ownership should be low, and he has as much two-touchdown upside as any non-elite back does.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints - The running back on the other side of the field, Jonathan Stewart, is getting a lot of love this week because of his low, low price and the potential of a clear shot at carries against the porous Saints run defense. He might be one of the highest-owned players this weekend.
Going the other way probably makes for a better tournament play. Ingram is the 10th-most expensive running back on DraftKings, which isn't bad considering he is facing the 23rd-ranked defense against fantasy backs and has averaged 23.0 carries per game in his last six contests. The Saints are favored in this game by 10 points, and it has an over/under of 49.5. If you're going to fade Stewart this weekend, Ingram should be a target because if everyone plays Stewart, nobody will be on Ingram.
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers - For most of the reasons in the Ingram section, Benjamin makes for an intriguing tournament play. Doing so involves the Stewart fade, and if Benjamin winds up with a double-touchdown day, he could vulture Stewart's upside. Stacking Ingram and Benjamin - going all in on the game-script - could pay off big if Ingram is running and Benjamin is catching. It's far from optimal, but if you're in a 50,000-entry tournament, sometimes putting stock into one occurrence is necessary.
The Saints are 30th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP and 29th against receivers in PPR formats, so the matchup can't get much better than this for Benjamin, who followed up performances of 22.0 and 28.2 points on DraftKings with a 10.6-point showing last week, which might drive the masses off Benjamin.
Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots - LaFell is playing in the game that has the second-highest over/under on the weekend. New England travels to San Diego, which is enough for a whopping 51 total projected by Vegas.
Factoring out a meager output against the Colts, LaFell has averaged 22.2 fantasy points in his last four contests. He just scored two touchdowns against the Packers, but his price ($6,100) is still affordable for a guy with multi-touchdown upside. The Chargers are a lowly 29th in pass defense according to our metrics, and with several bigger names in his price range on DraftKings, he could be an oversight for other players in your tournaments.
Jordan Reed, Washington - Typically, a top-tier tight end can really make or break a tournament team. Inexpensive wide receivers can always turn a single target into a long touchdown, but tight ends don't really work that way on a consistent enough basis to assume saving salary there is a smart call. Reed is a decent middle-ground option this week, offering elite upside without eating an abundance of cap.
He is priced among some big names, and his injury history has really quelled his emergence as an elite tight end. Still, he was targeted 11 times last week and caught 9 of them for 123 yards. A big day like that would make Rob Gronkowski owners feel justified, but Reed - and the glaring red "7th" next to his name on DraftKings - should be under the radar yet again this week.
Green Bay Packers - Green Bay has been rolling in all facets of the game of late, and that should continue on Monday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons visit.
Matt Ryan is a much different quarterback on the road than he his at home. At home, he haveraged 311.2 yards, 2.2 touchdowns, 0.7 interceptions, and 20.0 fantasy points. On the road? 260.0 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions, and 14.6 fantasy points.
This game has, by far, the highest over/under on the weekend at 55.5 - but it's not because of the Falcons. Green Bay is favored by 12 points. If Ryan is forced to throw as a result, things could get ugly in Green Bay's favor.