7 Daily Fantasy Football Tournament Plays for Week 12
After a couple of weeks of games that promised to be high-scoring shootouts, the fantasy landscape looks a lot different this week. The lower totals and more one-sided matchups means we can't just target players likely to pick up points in shootouts - we have to dig even deeper.
Lets get to it.
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears - Smokin' Jay has been up and down over his last few games, but week in and week out, he has the potential for the kind of huge fantasy performance that you're looking for while creating a GPP lineup. Cutler has thrown for three touchdowns in two of his last three games, and gets a chance to do it again this week against a Tampa Bay secondary that has been playing terribly. According to our numbers, Tampa has been the worst in the league defending the pass this year, and they have also given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Lesean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles - Shady has recorded 20 or more carries in 7 of 10 games this season, and as big favorites (Vegas has them favored by 11, the second-largest spread this week) we should see a lot of work for the Eagles' backfield. Against the Tennessee defense, who our rankings have sitting dead last against the run, he should have little trouble turning these opportunities into fantasy points. Also worth noting is that, despite his low touchdown total, Shady is tied for seventh in the league in carries inside the 10-yard line with 13, giving him some decent upside in the touchdown department as well.
Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons - While Jackson hasn't been the most efficient rusher this season, averaging 3.6 yards and -0.2 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry, he's seeing a sizable work load as well as the lion's share of the goal line work in Atlanta. He's averaging 18 carries per game over the past three, and his 12 goal-line touches account for 40% of all of the Falcons' snaps inside the 10-yard line this year. Vegas has Atlanta's team total projected at 25, not an overwhelming number, but an indicator that they should be able to put up some decent points, and I like Jackson's chances of accounting or at least one of those scores.
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears - Jeffery and teammate Brandon Marshall both make for interesting stacks with Cutler this week, but I prefer Alshon. Over the last three games, he has 37 targets to Marshall's 30, as well as 7 red zone targets to Marshall's 3. If you really want to go all-in on the Bears offense (or all-in against the Bucs' defense), playing both Bears' wideouts is also a path you can take. They both have double-digit targets in each of the last two games, and they combined for three touchdowns last week.
Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars - With Allen Robinson on IR for the remainder of the season, Hurns will step into an every-down role that should come with an increased workload. Robinson accounted for 22% of the Jags' targets this season, leaving an average of just over 8 targets per game needing a new home. This increased work load for Hurns raises his floor, and he's already displayed a massive ceiling twice this season, recording 100-plus yard, 2-touchdown performances. As 13-point underdogs against the Colts, the Jaguars will likely find themselves playing from behind for the majority of the game, and forced to put the ball into the air a ton.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Playing Seferian-Jenkins this week is as much about playing the Bears inability to stop opposing tight ends as it is about any confidence in ASJ. Chicago is giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends, just a shade over 18, and over the last four games have given up a whopping 8 touchdowns to tight ends. Seferian-Jenkins has been inconsistent, and his targets have been up-and-down all year, but I like this week as his coming out party.
San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers are up against a Washington offense this week that has been in turmoil. Washington has given up 15-plus points to opposing defenses four times this season, and they've allowed the third-most fantasy points per week to the position. While we can't expect a repeat of San Francisco's five interception performance from last week, they've multiple interceptions in each of their last three games. With Washington's team total projected at 17.75 (tied for second lowest in the league this week), San Francisco's defense has a good shot at keeping the points low and forcing turnovers, leading to a big fantasy day.