Will Kadarius Toney Carve Out a Meaningful Rookie-Year Role on the Giants?
An after-the-catch monster who PFF credited with 43 broken tackles on his 120 career catches, Kadarius Toney was taken 20th overall by the New York Giants.
You could say Toney and the G-Men were a bit of a surprise pairing -- at least as far as oddsmakers go.
Toney was LITERALLY the longest shot to be the first Giants player drafted tonight +6000 @FDSportsbook @LicensePlateGuy @SportsGrid pic.twitter.com/2zALsSCYXO
— Ariel Epstein (@ArielEpstein) April 30, 2021
Toney broke out with 70 catches, 984 yards and 10 touchdowns for the Florida Gators in 2020, but that was his lone season with more than 260 yards or 25 catches.
Was his 2020 campaign a sign of bigger things to come?
Player Comparisons
numberFire's JJ Zachariason and Jim Sannes break down Toney's profile, and JJ gives his top comparison.
"If there's one player in this class that profiles most to be a first-round bust at wide receiver, it's probably Kadarius Toney" @LateRoundQB explains why the Giants might be looking at another Dexter McCluster...#TogetherBlue | #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/Nl6hrqFLRb
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) April 30, 2021
Brandon Gdula's draft database has found these 10 prior prospects to have the most similar statistical profiles to Toney. Keep in mind that these are based not on play style or traits but age, athleticism, draft equity, experience, efficiency, and production.
| Kadarius Toney Profile Comparisons | Similarity |
|---|---|
| Dante Pettis | 92.8% |
| Devin Smith | 90.7% |
| Henry Ruggs III | 89.9% |
| Jeremy Maclin | 88.9% |
| Curtis Samuel | 88.4% |
| Randall Cobb | 86.9% |
| Mike Wallace | 85.9% |
| Shelton Gibson | 85.5% |
| Parris Campbell | 85.2% |
| Phillip Dorsett | 84.9% |
Gdula's Take: Toney is lacking in size and receiving volume (and efficiency). It's hard to envision him as an every-down, high-volume fantasy receiver based on his profile.
Toney's 2021 Fantasy Football Projection
Toney definitely has some holes as a prospect. When you couple that with the less-than-ideal fit on a meh Giants offense that already has Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, John Ross and Evan Engram, it's not a recipe for rookie-year fantasy success for Toney.
Zachariason's initial 2021 projections for Toney reflect that. The wideout is forecasted for 23 catches, 285 yards and 1.4 touchdowns -- which makes Toney the PPR WR93 for the season.
On FanDuel Sportsbook, Big Blue is listed at +6500 to win the Super Bowl and +440 to take the NFC East, and they have a win total projection of 7.5 -- with -150 on the under -- on FOX Bet.
