Super Bowl LV: Coin Toss, Kick Deferral, and First Score Trends for the Buccaneers and Chiefs
We all know that the coin toss is one of the mainstay props when betting the Super Bowl (you can bet it over at FanDuel Sportsbook, of course), but what about trends right after the coin toss?
Do the Kansas City Chiefs always defer? Do teams against them take the ball to avoid falling behind? What about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' recent decisions?
I wanted to find out to see if I could attack early-game props any particular way, so I pulled coin toss, deferral, first score, and first touchdown data from each of their games this season (via Pro-Football-Reference).
What stands out?
Coin Toss and Early-Game Data
Here's a snapshot of the Chiefs' trends.
| Week | Game | Coin Toss Result |
KC Coin Toss Win? |
Winner Deferred? |
KC Win Toss & Defer? |
KC First Score? |
KC First Any Scorer |
KC First TD Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs HOU | Chiefs (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Kelce | Kelce |
| 2 | at LAC | Chargers (received) |
No | No | No | No | Kelce | Kelce |
| 3 | at BAL | Chiefs (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Mahomes | Mahomes |
| 4 | at NE | Patriots (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Butker | Hill |
| 5 | vs LV | Raiders (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | No | Mahomes | Mahomes |
| 6 | at BUF | Chiefs (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Kelce | Kelce |
| 7 | at DEN | Broncos (received) |
No | No | No | Yes | Edwards- Helaire |
Edwards- Helaire |
| 8 | vs NYJ | Jets (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Hardman | Hardman |
| 9 | vs CAR | Panthers (received) |
No | No | No | No | Butker | Robinson |
| 10 | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE |
| 11 | at LV | Chiefs (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Hill | Hill |
| 12 | at TB | Buccaneers (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Butker | Hill |
| 13 | vs DEN | Chiefs (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Butker | Kelce |
| 14 | at MIA | Chiefs (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Hill | Hill |
| 15 | at NO | Saints (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Hill | Hill |
| 16 | vs ATL | Chiefs (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Kelce | Kelce |
| 17 | vs LAC | Chargers (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Pringle | Pringle |
| 18 | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE |
| DR | vs CLE | Browns (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Mahomes | Mahomes |
| CC | vs BUF | Chiefs (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Hardman | Hardman |
And here's the same info for the Buccaneers.
| Week | Game | Coin Toss Result |
TB Coin Toss Win? |
Winner Deferred? |
TB Win Toss & Defer? |
TB First Score? |
TB First Any Scorer |
TB First TD Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at NO | Buccaneers (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Brady | Brady |
| 2 | vs CAR | Panthers (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Jones | Jones |
| 3 | at DEN | Buccaneers (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Godwin | Godwin |
| 4 | vs LAC | Chargers (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Brate | Brate |
| 5 | at CHI | Bears (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Succop | Evans |
| 6 | vs GB | Buccaneers (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Dean (D); Jones (O) |
Dean (D); Jones (O) |
| 7 | at LV | Raiders (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | No | Brady | Brady |
| 8 | at NYG | Giants (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Succop | Gronkowski |
| 9 | vs NO | Saints (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | No | Succop | N/A |
| 10 | at CAR | Buccaneers (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Brate | Brate |
| 11 | vs LAR | Rams (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | No | Evans | Evans |
| 12 | vs KC | Buccaneers (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Jones | Jones |
| 13 | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE | BYE |
| 14 | vs MIN | Buccaneers (deferred) |
Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Miller | Miller |
| 15 | at ATL | Falcons (received) |
No | No | No | No | Fournette | Fournette |
| 16 | at DET | Buccaneers (received) |
Yes | No | No | Yes | Gronkowski | Gronkowski |
| 17 | vs ATL | Buccaneers (received) |
Yes | No | No | Yes | Godwin | Godwin |
| 18 | at WSH | Football Team (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Succop | Brown |
| 19 | at NO | Saints (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | No | Succop | Evans |
| 20 | at GB | Packers (deferred) |
No | Yes | No | Yes | Evans | Evans |
Note Weeks 16 and 17 when the Buccaneers won the toss and elected to receive.
Here are the combined trends.
| Team | Games | Toss Win% |
Deferral Rate (In-Game) |
Deferral Rate (Opponents) |
Deferral Rate (Team) |
First Score Rate (Team) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 18 | 44.4% | 83.3% | 70.0% | 100.0% | 38.9% |
| TB | 19 | 42.1% | 84.2% | 90.9% | 75.0% | 52.6% |
Deferring after winning a coin toss is common strategy in the current NFL, so it's a little telling that 3 of 10 teams to win the coin toss against the Chiefs' high-powered offense did elect to receive the opening kickoff.
Although the Buccaneers did win the toss against the Chiefs in their Week 12 matchup and chose to defer, the past two times the Bucs won the toss (Weeks 16 and 17), they chose to receive the opening kickoff. They wound up scoring first in both games via passing touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have deferred on all eight of their wins. So, if the Chiefs win the toss, the trends say they'll defer, getting the Bucs the first possession.
If the Bucs win the toss, the more recent data implies they may take the ball. This makes it pretty likely that it's Tom Brady under center for the first offensive snap of the game.
It's also peculiar that the Chiefs' first-score rate is so low. Brady notoriously hasn't put up points in the first quarter of Super Bowls, but there are a lot of reasons to like the Buccaneers to get going first.
Given that the coin toss should result in a first possession for the Buccaneers, there might be some nice value on the Buccaneers' early-game props -- such as the first-touchdown scorer, team to score first (Bucs are -106), team to have the first field goal (Bucs are -108), the first-quarter winner (Bucs are +122).
First Scorer Data
Here's a closer look at the data on who scored first for each team. This isn't meant to be predictive, per se, but rather to show the dispersion of first scores and touchdowns.
Let's start with the Chiefs.
| KC First Scorer (Any) |
Count | KC First Scorer (TD) |
Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | Travis Kelce | 5 |
| Harrison Butker | 4 | Tyreek Hill | 5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | Patrick Mahomes | 3 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | Mecole Hardman | 2 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | Demarcus Robinson | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | Byron Pringle | 1 |
Travis Kelce kicked off the scoring with a touchdown as many times (four) as Harrison Butker did with a field goal, but Kelce tied with Tyreek Hill for five of the first touchdowns for the Chiefs. Notably, Patrick Mahomes started three games off with rushing touchdowns.
And now the Buccaneers, which is more dispersed.
| TB First Scorer (Any) |
Count | TB First Scorer (TD) |
Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Succop | 5 | Mike Evans | 4 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | Tom Brady | 2 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | Ronald Jones | 2 |
| Chris Godwin | 2 | Chris Godwin | 2 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | Cameron Brate | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | Rob Gronkowski | 2 |
| Jamel Dean (Defensive) | 1 | Jamel Dean (Defensive) | 1 |
| Scotty Miller | 1 | Scotty Miller | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | Leonard Fournette | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | Antonio Brown | 1 |
Ryan Succop has started the scoring in 5 of 19 games for the Buccaneers, but their first touchdown has been scored primarily by Mike Evans, which he did four times. Notably, Ronald Jones had two rushing scores to start games and did score the first offensive touchdown in the game when Jamel Dean had a pick-six score.
Here's the odds board for the first touchdown scorer at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Chiefs | First TD Odds |
Buccaneers | First TD Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | +600 | Mike Evans | +900 |
| Tyreek Hill | +600 | Chris Godwin | +1000 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +1200 | Leonard Fournette | +1000 |
| Darrel Williams | +1400 | Antonio Brown | +1600 |
| Mecole Hardman | +1600 | Rob Gronkowski | +1600 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +1600 | Cameron Brate | +1800 |
| Sammy Watkins | +1600 | Ronald Jones | +1800 |
| Byron Pringle | +2400 | Tom Brady | +2500 |
| Demarcus Robinson | +2400 | Scotty Miller | +2600 |
| Kansas City D/ST | +3000 | Tampa Bay D/ST | +3700 |
| Le'Veon Bell | +4700 | Tyler Johnson | +4100 |
| Anthony Sherman | +9000 | Antony Auclair | +10000 |
| Darwin Thompson | +10000 | Jaydon Mickens | +10000 |
| Gehrig Dieter | +10000 | KeShawn Vaughn | +10000 |
| Nick Keizer | +10000 | LeSean McCoy | +10000 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | +10000 | Tanner Hudson | +10000 |
The Super Bowl is always full of some early surprises, but targeting Mike Evans at +900 as the first touchdown scorer and assuming the Bucs receive the opening kick would be a nice way to begin the action.
