NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 15
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 15's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.07 | 2 | 40.9% | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.09 | 1 | 42.8% | 2 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.04 | 4 | 44.5% | 3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.14 | 19 | 44.7% | 4 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.07 | 8 | 45.2% | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.12 | 15 | 45.9% | 6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.10 | 11 | 45.9% | 7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.05 | 5 | 46.5% | 8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.07 | 6 | 46.7% | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.05 | 3 | 46.8% | 10 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.10 | 13 | 47.0% | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.08 | 9 | 47.2% | 12 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.16 | 20 | 47.2% | 13 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.13 | 18 | 48.1% | 14 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.12 | 16 | 48.2% | 15 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.10 | 12 | 48.3% | 16 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.08 | 10 | 48.4% | 17 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.18 | 22 | 48.9% | 18 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.17 | 21 | 49.1% | 19 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.18 | 24 | 49.3% | 20 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.11 | 14 | 49.7% | 21 |
| New England Patriots | 0.07 | 7 | 49.9% | 22 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.22 | 26 | 50.4% | 23 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.27 | 28 | 50.7% | 24 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.18 | 23 | 50.8% | 25 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.22 | 25 | 51.3% | 26 |
| New York Giants | 0.12 | 17 | 52.4% | 27 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.23 | 27 | 53.0% | 28 |
| New York Jets | 0.28 | 29 | 53.1% | 29 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.29 | 30 | 53.2% | 30 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.33 | 32 | 54.3% | 31 |
| Houston Texans | 0.30 | 31 | 55.3% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.13 | 48.6% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.07 | 3 | 33.6% | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.07 | 4 | 34.8% | 2 |
| New York Jets | -0.05 | 5 | 35.6% | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.12 | 1 | 35.9% | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.05 | 6 | 35.9% | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.01 | 14 | 37.6% | 6 |
| New York Giants | 0.03 | 19 | 38.7% | 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.03 | 20 | 39.0% | 8 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.04 | 8 | 39.2% | 9 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.03 | 10 | 39.6% | 10 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.01 | 12 | 40.6% | 11 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.02 | 16 | 40.9% | 12 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.02 | 17 | 41.1% | 13 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.12 | 2 | 41.9% | 14 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.00 | 13 | 42.2% | 15 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.03 | 11 | 42.4% | 16 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.05 | 7 | 42.6% | 17 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.05 | 21 | 43.5% | 18 |
| Washington Football Team | -0.04 | 9 | 43.7% | 19 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.05 | 22 | 43.7% | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.07 | 25 | 44.2% | 21 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.05 | 24 | 44.5% | 22 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.12 | 29 | 44.6% | 23 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.01 | 15 | 45.3% | 24 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.17 | 32 | 45.5% | 25 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.05 | 23 | 46.0% | 26 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.08 | 27 | 46.6% | 27 |
| Houston Texans | 0.15 | 31 | 46.9% | 28 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.07 | 26 | 48.3% | 29 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.03 | 18 | 48.8% | 30 |
| New England Patriots | 0.10 | 28 | 49.4% | 31 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.13 | 30 | 49.6% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.02 | 42.4% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 43.5% | 11 | 48.1% | 1 | 40.2% | 1 |
| Washington Football Team | 46.2% | 15 | 48.4% | 2 | 55.7% | 15 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 52.6% | 28 | 48.7% | 3 | 59.0% | 22 |
| Miami Dolphins | 59.8% | 32 | 49.7% | 4 | 51.8% | 6 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 37.9% | 2 | 50.8% | 5 | 53.9% | 10 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 38.3% | 3 | 52.0% | 6 | 53.8% | 9 |
| Buffalo Bills | 50.0% | 24 | 53.1% | 7 | 60.2% | 24 |
| Green Bay Packers | 58.2% | 31 | 53.1% | 8 | 52.4% | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 42.2% | 8 | 53.2% | 9 | 50.7% | 5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 42.9% | 9 | 53.2% | 10 | 48.6% | 2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 52.6% | 29 | 53.3% | 11 | 52.3% | 7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 39.0% | 4 | 53.4% | 12 | 61.5% | 29 |
| Cleveland Browns | 47.9% | 18 | 54.5% | 13 | 58.3% | 20 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 40.5% | 6 | 54.6% | 14 | 63.5% | 30 |
| Carolina Panthers | 48.5% | 19 | 54.9% | 15 | 60.4% | 25 |
| Denver Broncos | 42.1% | 7 | 55.0% | 16 | 55.4% | 14 |
| Chicago Bears | 34.6% | 1 | 55.1% | 17 | 54.7% | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 45.7% | 14 | 55.6% | 18 | 60.8% | 27 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 40.4% | 5 | 55.9% | 19 | 57.9% | 19 |
| New England Patriots | 43.4% | 10 | 56.1% | 20 | 56.4% | 17 |
| Tennessee Titans | 54.8% | 30 | 56.3% | 21 | 60.4% | 26 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 51.4% | 27 | 56.8% | 22 | 50.0% | 3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 46.3% | 16 | 57.0% | 23 | 53.9% | 10 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 50.5% | 26 | 57.3% | 24 | 50.0% | 3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 47.3% | 17 | 57.7% | 25 | 63.6% | 31 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 43.6% | 13 | 57.7% | 26 | 56.3% | 16 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 43.5% | 12 | 57.8% | 27 | 56.9% | 18 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50.5% | 25 | 59.1% | 28 | 54.8% | 13 |
| New York Giants | 49.1% | 21 | 59.2% | 29 | 63.8% | 32 |
| New York Jets | 49.1% | 20 | 59.3% | 30 | 59.2% | 23 |
| Detroit Lions | 49.5% | 22 | 60.7% | 31 | 58.8% | 21 |
| Houston Texans | 49.5% | 23 | 64.2% | 32 | 61.4% | 28 |
| NFL Average | 46.6% | 55.1% | 56.1% |
