4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 15

If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.

The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options who could go overlooked.

Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 15.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

FanDuel Salary: $8,100

Between Patrick Mahomes appearing matchup-proof, Lamar Jackson coming off his best performance of the year, Kyler Murray perhaps getting healthier, and Jalen Hurts emerging as a value play, we have a lot of intriguing options at quarterback this week.

That could lead to Deshaun Watson seeing a more modest roster percentage despite being involved in a game with a 50.5 total.

Watson's efficiency has taken a hit after losing Will Fuller, as he's produced 0.12 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back in the two games since -- just below league average (0.13) -- compared to a fantastic 0.32 per drop back in the 11 games prior.

Admittedly, that should give us some pause regarding his upside moving forward, but he's still adding points on the ground, posting exactly 7 carries for 38 rushing yards in each of the past two games, and the better of his two results came against this week's opponent, the Indianapolis Colts. In that Week 13 contest, Watson threw for 341 yards and added a rushing score, helping him to 20.44 FanDuel points. Had he tacked on a passing score, which isn't unreasonable given all those yards, he would have flirted with 25 FanDuel points.

Watson didn't have nearly as much success in a clunker against Chicago, but the Bears are numberFire's fifth overall defense, and Brandin Cooks missed that game -- so perhaps he deserves a pass.

The other benefit of rostering Watson is that it's an appealing game to stack all around. Cooks is expected to be back, and Keke Coutee performed admirably (18.1 points) with both players active the last time against the Colts. At their modest salaries, both players project as solid point-per-dollar plays.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor and a resurgent T.Y. Hilton offer viable high-upside choices on the other side. Taylor appears to have taken over as the Colts' lead running back and is one of the top running back plays of the slate. Hilton has seemingly pulled an Undertaker gif out of nowhere with at least 80 yards and a score in three straight games, but he's paced the team with a 23% target share and 42% air yards share over that span, so it isn't entirely a fluke. And for what it's worth, there's that whole Hilton-versus-the-Texans thing -- just check out that game log.

This week's range-of-outcome projections give Watson a 29% chance of scoring 25 FanDuel points, which is the fourth-best mark among quarterbacks.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Salary: $7,800

With the news of Drew Brees being back under center for the Saints, I'm guessing that by Sunday morning, there could be enough chatter about Alvin Kamara to bump up his roster percentage.

In any case, the switch back to Brees dramatically improves Kamara's outlook, and it's possible that his more modest recent results with Taysom Hill keep his popularity from getting out of control.

When Kamara has played with Brees this season, his adjusted opportunities -- or valuing targets twice that of carries -- puts his workload on par with Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. Both of those players have significantly higher salaries than Kamara, arguably making the New Orleans back the best point-per-dollar play at the position.

Kamara is also involved in one of the top games of the slate against Kansas City (52.5 total), and Brees' return can only improve the chances of this one shooting out with the Saints reverting back to a more pass-heavy attack. That means we can add Kamara as a bring-back option for stacks involving Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, which simply oozes upside.

Kamara's specific matchup also checks out. Kansas City ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted run defense, per numberFire's metrics, as well as 29th in Target Success Rate allowed to running backs.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $7,100

A shootout never materialized in last week's Vikings-Tampa Bay matchup, as Tom Brady would ultimately only make 23 pass attempts in a fairly unappealing game for DFS purposes.

Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if the masses stay away from the Bucs' offense despite their plus spot against the Falcons. Atlanta has a pass-funnel defense that ranks 23rd in adjusted pass defense compared to 5th against the run, which has led to them giving up the most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks and the second-most to wide receivers. Additionally, with Ronald Jones possibly unavailable after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, Tampa Bay may be compelled to air it out more than usual anyway.

The Bucs' pass-catchers have generally been less desirable for fantasy purposes due to the way Brady spreads the ball around, but Mike Evans has emerged as the go-to option. In the five games since Antonio Brown joined up, Evans leads the team with a 22% target share and 28% air yards share.

But just as importantly, he's been Brady's favorite red-zone target all season. Evans has the league's third-most red-zone targets (17) and second-most inside the 10-yard-line (14). Although he hasn't really posted a true blow-up game, multiple scores are definitely possible, which is something he's done twice already this season.

Unfortunately, Julio Jones has already been ruled out on the other side, which puts a damper on this game's back-and-forth potential. Matt Ryan has performed significantly worse without Jones, and the total for this game has dipped to 48.5 on NFL odds.

Still, Calvin Ridley gives us a viable game-stack option on Atlanta, who not only rates well in our range-of-projections simulations but is also a prime positive regression candidate. The Bucs' defense hasn't been immune to giving up big games through the air, so we can't rule out Ryan and friends keeping things interesting.

Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings

FanDuel Salary: $5,400

Cole Kmet is probably my favorite value tight end, and he could be fairly popular after seeing seven targets in back-to-back games. But Irv Smith Jr. is another low-salaried possibility who may not get as much attention.

Smith only saw a 35% snap rate in his return from injury (he was expected to be limited), but with Kyle Rudolph out, he would go on to catch 4 of 4 targets for 63 yards and a score. Smith is now practicing as normal while Rudolph has already been ruled out, setting Smith up for an enticing role this weekend against the Bears. We've seen his snap rate rise as high as 78% this season when healthy.

Chicago has given up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends, which includes nine touchdowns allowed. We could very well see Smith's best game yet.