Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 13
The Jacksonville Jaguars joined the New York Jets as the only two teams with officially no chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy in 2020 after their Week 12 loss to the Cleveland Browns. But that still leaves 30 of the 32 NFL teams with something of a shot at Super Bowl glory this year.
In recent weeks, we've highlighted groups of teams who have risen or fallen in the betting markets, specifically at Super Bowl odds. This week, here are the Super Bowl victory odds (and implied probability) for each of the 30 teams still fighting for ultimate glory. We also have the numberFire title odds, which differ significantly in a few cases to those on offer at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
nF Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +280 | 26.3% | 19.4% |
| New Orleans Saints | +550 | 15.4% | 12.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +600 | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +950 | 9.5% | 7.7% |
| Green Bay Packers | +1000 | 9.1% | 12.2% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1400 | 6.7% | 3.7% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1600 | 5.9% | 7.1% |
| Tennessee Titans | +2000 | 4.8% | 4.1% |
| Buffalo Bills | +2200 | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +2700 | 3.6% | 5.9% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3100 | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Cleveland Browns | +4600 | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +4800 | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| Miami Dolphins | +5000 | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +6500 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +8500 | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +10000 | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +12000 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| New York Giants | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| New England Patriots | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Washington | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Chicago Bears | +14000 | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +20000 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +25000 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Lions | +25000 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Houston Texans | +25000 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | +35000 | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Denver Broncos | +40000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +150000 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
This list will begin to get shorter in the coming weeks, as we begin to encounter what the great Scott Hanson proudly declares "Clinching Scenarios." Playoff berths will soon be wrapped up, also-rans will officially be eliminated, and the list of likely winners of the Super Bowl will begin to dwindle. We're into the business end of the season now, folks.
In terms of betting value, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens are the top values, according to our model. On the flip side, our algorithm doesn't like the Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts (among others) as much as oddsmakers do -- although we do have KC as the favorite.
