Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Will Seattle Take Care of Business Against Philadelphia?
On Monday Night Football, we are being treated to what seems to be a pretty big mismatch. The Seattle Seahawks host the Philadelphia Eagles, and these are two teams heading in complete opposite directions.
On Thursday Night Football a week ago, Seattle picked up a win over their division rivals in the Arizona Cardinals, and now sit atop the NFC West. The Eagles, meanwhile, continue to free fall, and while they remain in the NFC East hunt due to a dreadful division, they are a meager 3-6-1 on the season.
Let's dive into what our model thinks could be some intriguing betting angles for this contest.
Rock with the Road Seahawks
This line honestly appears to be a gift, with the road 'Hawks getting only 6.5 points on the game. While they have only gone 2-3 on the road this season, Russell Wilson returned to form in the Thursday night win, completing 23-of-28 passes for 2 passing scores while adding 42 yards rushing. In addition, running back Chris Carson is now healthy and will return in tonight's contest.
Meanwhile, the Eagles and Carson Wentz have flat out stunk. Wentz threw two more interceptions last week, and he now owns an even 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on the year. News flash -- that ain't good, bruh.
While the league average for quarterbacks currently sits at 0.14 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, Wentz has slogged his way to a mark of -0.11 NEP per drop back. You read that right -- Wentz has dropped back a total of 377 times, meaning he has lost his team roughly 38 points due to his play. Yikes. The calls for Jalen Hurts become louder and louder each week, and Hurts is expected to see increased playing time tonight.
Per oddsFire, it shouldn't be any surprise that 92% of bets and 96% of cash have sided with the road Seahawks.
Bets to Consider
Adding to the lack of intrigue, our algorithm predicts a win 70.70% of the time for the Seahawks, as well.
The over/under may be a bit challenging, per the analytics, but we give a slight lean to the over. This has dropped to 48.5 points, and we like that to hit 53.29% of the time. Interestingly, the under has been a solid bet in the past in Philadelphia.
Improved betting value can be found with player props, specifically with Chris Carson. Our model has Carson gouging the Eagles for 73.2 yards, and in games this season with 10-plus carries, Carson has gone for 60-plus yards in each game. Interestingly, his rushing yards prop at FanDuel Sportsbook is only at 53.5, with even -110 odds on both sides. Look for the Seahawks to get up and pound the rock with Carson.
Historical Betting Trends
-- These teams couldn't be more opposite from an against-the-spread (ATS) perspective in 2020 -- the Seahawks have been outstanding to bet on, claiming a 7-3 mark, with the Eagles posting the inverse.
-- If you believe in historical records, the Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games against Philadelphia.
-- Philly is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
-- At home for Philly, the under is a good bet -- in their last 12 games, the under has hit 10 times.