NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 10
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 10's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.05 | 3 | 40.8% | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.05 | 8 | 42.9% | 2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.07 | 1 | 44.8% | 3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -0.03 | 4 | 44.8% | 4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.00 | 6 | 44.9% | 5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.01 | 5 | 45.0% | 6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.16 | 18 | 45.2% | 7 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.09 | 10 | 45.4% | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.13 | 14 | 45.6% | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.01 | 7 | 46.4% | 10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.18 | 21 | 46.6% | 11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.08 | 9 | 46.9% | 12 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.10 | 12 | 48.2% | 13 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.12 | 13 | 48.4% | 14 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.09 | 11 | 48.4% | 14 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.23 | 24 | 48.4% | 16 |
| Miami Dolphins | -0.06 | 2 | 48.6% | 17 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.25 | 26 | 50.0% | 18 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.18 | 20 | 50.3% | 19 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.23 | 23 | 50.4% | 20 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.15 | 17 | 50.6% | 21 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.30 | 29 | 51.0% | 22 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.14 | 16 | 51.0% | 23 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.26 | 27 | 51.4% | 24 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.24 | 25 | 52.5% | 25 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.26 | 28 | 52.8% | 26 |
| New York Giants | 0.16 | 19 | 53.4% | 27 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.33 | 31 | 53.7% | 28 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.21 | 22 | 54.0% | 29 |
| New England Patriots | 0.14 | 15 | 54.3% | 30 |
| Houston Texans | 0.31 | 30 | 55.1% | 31 |
| New York Jets | 0.33 | 32 | 56.7% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.14 | 49.0% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.14 | 2 | 33.0% | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.06 | 5 | 33.7% | 2 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.00 | 11 | 34.6% | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.10 | 3 | 35.2% | 4 |
| New York Jets | 0.00 | 13 | 36.7% | 5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.05 | 7 | 37.0% | 6 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.02 | 10 | 37.0% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | -0.05 | 8 | 37.6% | 8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.06 | 6 | 39.2% | 9 |
| New York Giants | 0.05 | 22 | 39.2% | 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.08 | 4 | 39.4% | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.03 | 9 | 39.5% | 12 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.01 | 14 | 40.8% | 13 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.15 | 1 | 40.9% | 14 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.01 | 15 | 43.2% | 15 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.01 | 16 | 43.3% | 16 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.00 | 12 | 43.5% | 17 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.04 | 19 | 43.6% | 18 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.08 | 25 | 43.7% | 19 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.14 | 29 | 44.4% | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.10 | 27 | 45.1% | 21 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.03 | 17 | 45.8% | 22 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.12 | 28 | 46.0% | 23 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.16 | 30 | 46.3% | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 0.18 | 32 | 46.6% | 25 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.07 | 23 | 47.4% | 26 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.04 | 20 | 48.1% | 27 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.04 | 18 | 48.2% | 28 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.05 | 21 | 48.9% | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.17 | 31 | 49.2% | 30 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.10 | 26 | 49.3% | 31 |
| New England Patriots | 0.08 | 24 | 51.7% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.03 | 42.6% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 55.2% | 28 | 47.6% | 1 | 53.6% | 13 |
| Chicago Bears | 34.4% | 2 | 49.5% | 2 | 52.5% | 10 |
| Washington Football Team | 52.4% | 25 | 50.0% | 3 | 56.7% | 19 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 34.1% | 1 | 51.9% | 4 | 40.0% | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 61.0% | 32 | 52.2% | 5 | 50.0% | 8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 35.6% | 3 | 52.3% | 6 | 62.9% | 29 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 41.4% | 8 | 52.9% | 7 | 56.6% | 18 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 44.6% | 11 | 53.0% | 8 | 47.2% | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 49.3% | 19 | 53.2% | 9 | 65.2% | 31 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 55.1% | 27 | 53.7% | 10 | 43.1% | 2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 36.5% | 4 | 54.5% | 11 | 48.6% | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 60.0% | 31 | 55.0% | 12 | 55.0% | 16 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 46.3% | 16 | 55.1% | 13 | 49.3% | 6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 40.8% | 7 | 55.1% | 13 | 60.6% | 27 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 39.5% | 6 | 55.2% | 15 | 52.8% | 12 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 38.5% | 5 | 55.3% | 16 | 58.5% | 24 |
| Denver Broncos | 45.2% | 13 | 55.4% | 17 | 58.3% | 22 |
| Buffalo Bills | 52.8% | 26 | 55.5% | 18 | 60.0% | 26 |
| Carolina Panthers | 51.3% | 23 | 55.9% | 19 | 58.2% | 21 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50.0% | 20 | 56.1% | 20 | 52.6% | 11 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 41.9% | 9 | 56.2% | 21 | 54.0% | 14 |
| Cleveland Browns | 46.0% | 15 | 56.7% | 22 | 57.5% | 20 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 47.8% | 17 | 56.8% | 23 | 65.5% | 32 |
| Detroit Lions | 45.1% | 12 | 58.1% | 24 | 55.6% | 17 |
| Tennessee Titans | 50.9% | 22 | 59.2% | 25 | 58.3% | 22 |
| New Orleans Saints | 45.9% | 14 | 59.4% | 26 | 49.4% | 7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 51.4% | 24 | 59.5% | 27 | 54.4% | 15 |
| New York Giants | 50.0% | 20 | 60.5% | 28 | 60.9% | 28 |
| New England Patriots | 55.8% | 29 | 61.3% | 29 | 52.4% | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 48.6% | 18 | 61.6% | 30 | 47.1% | 3 |
| New York Jets | 57.1% | 30 | 62.0% | 31 | 59.3% | 25 |
| Houston Texans | 44.4% | 10 | 63.4% | 32 | 64.5% | 30 |
| NFL Average | 47.1% | 55.9% | 55.0% |
