NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 5
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 5's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0.02 | 5 | 42.3% | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.09 | 10 | 43.5% | 2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.10 | 2 | 43.8% | 3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.10 | 1 | 44.2% | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.02 | 6 | 44.6% | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.07 | 8 | 44.8% | 6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.12 | 15 | 45.6% | 7 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.11 | 11 | 45.9% | 8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.12 | 14 | 46.2% | 9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.02 | 4 | 46.6% | 10 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.02 | 3 | 46.6% | 11 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.11 | 13 | 47.7% | 12 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.18 | 20 | 48.2% | 13 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.25 | 24 | 48.3% | 14 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.25 | 25 | 48.6% | 15 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.29 | 29 | 48.9% | 16 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.11 | 12 | 49.2% | 17 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.16 | 17 | 49.5% | 18 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.17 | 18 | 50.0% | 19 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.22 | 22 | 50.0% | 19 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.24 | 23 | 50.8% | 21 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.04 | 7 | 50.8% | 22 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.26 | 26 | 51.9% | 23 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.19 | 21 | 52.0% | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 0.28 | 28 | 52.3% | 25 |
| New York Giants | 0.27 | 27 | 53.5% | 26 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.17 | 19 | 53.8% | 27 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.15 | 16 | 53.8% | 28 |
| New England Patriots | 0.07 | 9 | 54.4% | 29 |
| New York Jets | 0.33 | 30 | 56.1% | 30 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.42 | 32 | 56.4% | 31 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.39 | 31 | 59.0% | 32 |
| Grand Total | 0.15 | 49.2% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.16 | 4 | 25.0% | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.18 | 2 | 30.4% | 2 |
| New York Jets | 0.03 | 17 | 30.6% | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.20 | 1 | 31.8% | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.03 | 9 | 33.3% | 5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.18 | 3 | 36.6% | 6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.02 | 10 | 37.8% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01 | 15 | 38.0% | 8 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.09 | 21 | 38.1% | 9 |
| New York Giants | 0.03 | 18 | 38.5% | 10 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.07 | 7 | 38.6% | 11 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.06 | 8 | 39.0% | 12 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.00 | 13 | 39.5% | 13 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.03 | 16 | 40.3% | 14 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.00 | 14 | 41.4% | 15 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.08 | 6 | 42.6% | 16 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.09 | 5 | 43.4% | 17 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.14 | 28 | 43.8% | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.11 | 22 | 44.0% | 19 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.07 | 19 | 44.0% | 20 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.07 | 20 | 45.5% | 21 |
| Houston Texans | 0.17 | 29 | 47.8% | 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.12 | 24 | 48.1% | 23 |
| Cleveland Browns | -0.01 | 12 | 48.3% | 24 |
| New England Patriots | -0.02 | 11 | 48.8% | 25 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.14 | 27 | 49.1% | 26 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.21 | 30 | 50.0% | 27 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.12 | 23 | 51.1% | 28 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.25 | 31 | 53.1% | 29 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.14 | 25 | 54.0% | 30 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.29 | 32 | 54.7% | 31 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.14 | 26 | 56.1% | 32 |
| Grand Total | 0.04 | 42.8% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 56.4% | 29 | 47.6% | 1 | 57.6% | 23 |
| Chicago Bears | 32.4% | 1 | 48.1% | 2 | 52.3% | 14 |
| Washington Football Team | 45.8% | 15 | 48.9% | 3 | 64.9% | 26 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 55.2% | 25 | 49.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 11 |
| Carolina Panthers | 52.0% | 23 | 51.6% | 5 | 52.9% | 16 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 51.9% | 22 | 52.3% | 6 | 41.2% | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 37.9% | 5 | 52.7% | 7 | 45.2% | 6 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 45.7% | 14 | 53.1% | 8 | 48.4% | 9 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 41.3% | 7 | 53.4% | 9 | 66.7% | 29 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 46.2% | 17 | 54.4% | 10 | 54.8% | 19 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 43.8% | 11 | 54.5% | 11 | 73.1% | 32 |
| Green Bay Packers | 68.6% | 32 | 54.7% | 12 | 68.4% | 31 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 42.9% | 9 | 55.1% | 13 | 48.8% | 10 |
| Miami Dolphins | 60.0% | 31 | 55.1% | 14 | 53.3% | 17 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 46.2% | 17 | 55.4% | 15 | 47.9% | 8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 43.3% | 10 | 55.7% | 16 | 64.9% | 26 |
| Denver Broncos | 44.0% | 12 | 56.4% | 17 | 47.1% | 7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 45.2% | 13 | 56.6% | 18 | 62.7% | 24 |
| Cleveland Browns | 47.2% | 20 | 56.8% | 19 | 52.0% | 13 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 40.9% | 6 | 57.3% | 20 | 41.4% | 3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 56.3% | 27 | 57.5% | 21 | 57.4% | 22 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 36.5% | 4 | 59.1% | 22 | 52.6% | 15 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 56.0% | 26 | 59.3% | 23 | 65.0% | 28 |
| New York Giants | 56.3% | 27 | 60.2% | 24 | 51.9% | 12 |
| Tennessee Titans | 46.2% | 17 | 60.6% | 25 | 53.8% | 18 |
| Detroit Lions | 45.8% | 15 | 60.8% | 26 | 45.0% | 5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 36.0% | 3 | 61.3% | 27 | 44.8% | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 33.3% | 2 | 62.1% | 28 | 55.3% | 20 |
| Houston Texans | 41.4% | 8 | 62.8% | 29 | 63.6% | 25 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 51.4% | 21 | 63.5% | 30 | 67.9% | 30 |
| New York Jets | 56.8% | 30 | 63.5% | 30 | 55.6% | 21 |
| New England Patriots | 52.2% | 24 | 66.7% | 32 | 38.1% | 1 |
| NFL Average | 47.4% | 56.5% | 54.7% |
