Daily Fantasy Football Range-of-Outcome Projections: Week 5

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value: Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct: The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct: The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Observations
There are four quarterbacks who stand out above the rest in terms of raw median projections and boom/bust ratio: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott. With Mahomes' $9,000 salary just above Lamar's ($8,900) and Dak's ($8,700), he's my preferred option among the big three for how well he rates out. Watson, though, has a salary of just $7,900 and is very justifiably this week's best cash-game quarterback on FanDuel.

Teddy Bridgewater would be the first place I look when attempting to save salary, though Gardner Minshew does rate out better. Based on numberFire's metrics, Minshew has been about twice as good as the NFL average in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back in the three games with D.J. Chark healthy.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Observations
Running back kind of sucks this week. A lot of the league's best are off the main slate (Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson), and so it's basically a four-man group for me in terms of the single-lineup build goes. Those are Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Mike Davis. They are all top-five in floor/ceiling rating in the sims this week, joined by David Johnson, but I'd disagree there and prefer James Conner and James Robinson if saving salary.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Observations
Calvin Ridley looks worth his salary, and so does Tyreek Hill, really. At the top of the boom/bust list is Terry McLaurin, whom I usually love, but D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson appeal to me more on either side of McLaurin's salary.

DeAndre Hopkins could go a bit overlooked with Ridley set to see immense volume at a lower salary, but Hopkins has a very similar range of outcomes.

We've got some viable lower-salaried options in Diontae Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Marquise Brown, and Darius Slayton.

The main takeaway, as usual with receiver, is that a lot of guys have similar ranges of outcomes but can be rostered at various popularity rates.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Observations
Travis Kelce rates out in his own tier but is hard to roster at $7,800 unless we just go for value at running back and wide receiver. He's attainable, sure, but George Kittle is easier to draft at $7,100. With how badly tight end drops off and with viable value at the other positions, prioritizing someone such as Kittle, Kelce, or Darren Waller is much more tempting than usual.

Evan Engram has averaged 7.5 targets per game with little to show for it in the New York Giants' inefficient offense, but for a volume-based bet, he's in play. Austin Hooper, Eric Ebron, Mike Gesicki, and Dalton Schultz also deserve attention if everyone plans to flock to Engram.