NFL Analytics: Positional Success Rates Allowed Through Week 4
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, I like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
You can view our overall, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing defense numbers on our team rankings page, but here's a breakdown of Success Rates allowed to the various positions across the NFL through Week 4's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates and expected points numbers allowed are better. Tables are sorted as such.
Quarterback Pass Defense
| Defense | Passing NEP/ Drop Back |
Rank | Passing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.07 | 3 | 39.3% | 1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.18 | 1 | 43.3% | 2 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.04 | 6 | 43.3% | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.05 | 8 | 43.3% | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.01 | 5 | 43.4% | 5 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.04 | 7 | 45.3% | 6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -0.11 | 2 | 45.8% | 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.16 | 15 | 46.9% | 8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.16 | 16 | 47.3% | 9 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.11 | 11 | 47.7% | 10 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -0.01 | 4 | 48.5% | 11 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.13 | 13 | 48.8% | 12 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.10 | 10 | 49.1% | 13 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.13 | 12 | 49.4% | 14 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.32 | 29 | 49.7% | 15 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.18 | 19 | 49.7% | 16 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.24 | 23 | 50.5% | 17 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.23 | 22 | 50.5% | 18 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.14 | 14 | 50.7% | 19 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.28 | 25 | 51.0% | 20 |
| New York Giants | 0.29 | 27 | 51.4% | 21 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.20 | 21 | 51.7% | 22 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.26 | 24 | 51.9% | 23 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.29 | 26 | 52.2% | 24 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.17 | 17 | 52.3% | 25 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.17 | 18 | 53.8% | 26 |
| New York Jets | 0.29 | 28 | 54.1% | 27 |
| New England Patriots | 0.07 | 9 | 54.4% | 28 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.39 | 32 | 55.2% | 29 |
| Houston Texans | 0.35 | 30 | 56.5% | 30 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.19 | 20 | 56.8% | 31 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.37 | 31 | 59.2% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.16 | 49.7% |
Running Back Rush Defense
| Defense | Rushing NEP/ Carry |
Rank | Rushing Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.27 | 1 | 23.1% | 1 |
| New York Jets | 0.01 | 15 | 29.0% | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -0.17 | 4 | 32.1% | 3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -0.12 | 6 | 32.8% | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.22 | 2 | 33.3% | 5 |
| New York Giants | -0.04 | 10 | 33.7% | 6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -0.03 | 11 | 33.7% | 7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -0.03 | 12 | 36.8% | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -0.20 | 3 | 36.8% | 9 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.08 | 20 | 37.5% | 10 |
| Denver Broncos | -0.07 | 9 | 38.6% | 11 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -0.13 | 5 | 40.0% | 12 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.03 | 16 | 40.0% | 12 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.07 | 19 | 40.2% | 14 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.02 | 14 | 40.4% | 15 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -0.08 | 8 | 42.5% | 16 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.17 | 28 | 43.7% | 17 |
| Washington Football Team | 0.05 | 17 | 43.8% | 18 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.07 | 18 | 45.0% | 19 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.11 | 23 | 45.3% | 20 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.13 | 25 | 46.9% | 21 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.10 | 22 | 47.7% | 22 |
| Cleveland Browns | -0.08 | 7 | 47.9% | 23 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.10 | 21 | 48.1% | 24 |
| New England Patriots | -0.02 | 13 | 48.8% | 25 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.21 | 30 | 50.0% | 26 |
| Houston Texans | 0.21 | 29 | 50.4% | 27 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.14 | 27 | 52.4% | 28 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.12 | 24 | 52.5% | 29 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.27 | 31 | 54.1% | 30 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.29 | 32 | 54.7% | 31 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.13 | 26 | 54.9% | 32 |
| NFL Average | 0.04 | 43.0% |
Receiving Defense vs. Position
(This table is sorted by target success rate allowed to wide receivers.)
| Defense | RB Target Success Rate |
Rank | WR Target Success Rate |
Rank | TE Target Success Rate |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 61.5% | 30 | 47.3% | 1 | 54.2% | 16 |
| Chicago Bears | 34.6% | 3 | 49.4% | 2 | 53.6% | 13 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 22.7% | 1 | 50.0% | 3 | 41.7% | 4 |
| Washington Football Team | 44.4% | 9 | 50.7% | 4 | 61.3% | 23 |
| Carolina Panthers | 48.8% | 18 | 52.1% | 5 | 61.5% | 24 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 50.0% | 19 | 52.2% | 6 | 40.9% | 2 |
| Buffalo Bills | 46.4% | 13 | 52.3% | 7 | 64.1% | 25 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 53.6% | 25 | 52.9% | 8 | 47.1% | 9 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 47.4% | 15 | 52.9% | 8 | 44.0% | 5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 47.2% | 14 | 53.5% | 10 | 64.5% | 26 |
| Green Bay Packers | 68.6% | 31 | 54.7% | 11 | 68.4% | 29 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 53.8% | 26 | 55.4% | 12 | 55.6% | 19 |
| Cleveland Browns | 51.7% | 21 | 56.0% | 13 | 53.7% | 14 |
| New York Giants | 59.3% | 28 | 56.0% | 14 | 52.2% | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 38.9% | 5 | 56.3% | 15 | 45.5% | 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 44.0% | 7 | 56.4% | 16 | 47.1% | 9 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 55.0% | 27 | 57.1% | 17 | 66.7% | 27 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 44.4% | 9 | 57.3% | 18 | 70.0% | 30 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 44.8% | 11 | 57.5% | 19 | 54.1% | 15 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 44.0% | 7 | 57.5% | 19 | 70.8% | 31 |
| Tennessee Titans | 47.6% | 17 | 57.9% | 21 | 56.5% | 21 |
| New Orleans Saints | 60.0% | 29 | 58.6% | 22 | 59.1% | 22 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 50.0% | 19 | 58.7% | 23 | 45.9% | 8 |
| Miami Dolphins | 73.1% | 32 | 60.0% | 24 | 54.5% | 18 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 35.0% | 4 | 60.4% | 25 | 40.9% | 2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 32.5% | 2 | 60.5% | 26 | 56.3% | 20 |
| Detroit Lions | 45.8% | 12 | 60.8% | 27 | 45.0% | 6 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 40.0% | 6 | 61.5% | 28 | 54.3% | 17 |
| Houston Texans | 47.4% | 15 | 62.9% | 29 | 73.9% | 32 |
| New York Jets | 53.3% | 23 | 62.9% | 29 | 52.0% | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 53.3% | 23 | 63.8% | 31 | 68.0% | 28 |
| New England Patriots | 52.2% | 22 | 66.7% | 32 | 38.1% | 1 |
| NFL Average | 48.8% | 56.6% | 55.4% |
