NFL

Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Can the Packers Continue Their Hot Start?

Matt Kupferle  —  @MKupferle Oct 5th, 2020
Green Bay has started 3-0, but get a sneaky challenge against the Falcons who have suffered two fourth quarter meltdowns. Can Green Bay stay perfect?

We are getting a very solid two games on Monday Night Football in Week 4, and to finish off the week we receive the Green Bay Packers hosting the Atlanta Falcons.

Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.

Can the Falcons Finish a Fourth Quarter?

If Atlanta could just stop the game after the first 45 minutes, they would possibly be the best team on earth. Many football fans are aware of what happened in the Super Bowl a few years ago, but this thing has reared it's ugly head again. A collapse two weeks ago against the Dallas Cowboys and a meltdown against the Nick Foles-led Chicago Bears last week.

Assuming they can hold on to 15-point and 16-point leads, which they've held in the last two weeks, getting 7.0-points seems like something we want to own. The offense is chugging along just fine -- they've now scored 90 points in three games. Taking a look at our power rankings, we can't just talk about the Falcon offense in a silo -- the Packers have been outstanding and actually rank as our top offense so far this season. They've popped for 37 points or more in each of their first three games this season.

The overs have been getting smashed this season -- prior to Week 4, overs were 29-19 so far this season, and both of these teams work fairly quickly. As we look at pace, the Falcons rank third in situation-neutral pace (26.18 seconds), and the Packers are solid at 17th. The challenge is that the over/under is set at a sky-high 57.5 points this year, so this one could be tough to hit.

Bets to Consider

Public teams almost always generate the cash flow, and that's very prevalent in this contest as well. Looking at oddsFire, the home Packers are seeing a pile of coin come their way, with 85% of bets and 87% of all cash has come in on the cheeseheads.

Our algorithm loves the home Packers. We have them winning 71.2% of the time, but the spread isn't as locked in. We like the Falcons to cover at 50.48% of the time, which is only a one-star wager.

For a fun single-game parlay, peep Aaron Jones, especially, if Davante Adams isn't available. The Packers look like an offensive juggernaut, and his over/under on rushing yards (80.5) and receiving yards (38.5) seems very attainable -- and he's quietly racked up 12 targets over the last two games.

Historical Betting Trends

-- These two teams were solid against-the-spread (ATS) in 2019, with the Packers going 11-7 ATS and the Falcons going 8-8 ATS.

-- The Falcons have been solid as an ATS play, going 5-0 ATS on the road in their last five.

-- Something has to give here -- in October, the Packers have been ATS monsters as well, going 4-1 last year ATS in October.

-- Even with a hefty over/under, the Falcons have been part of this machine, hitting the over the last four times.