4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 3
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Week 3 lineups.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings Price: $5,800
Projected Points: 18.5
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.19
Okay, I know -- Carson Wentz has looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL through two weeks, and the numbers would agree. In numberFire's Passing Success Rate, among quarterbacks to start both games, Wentz is better than only Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, and Kirk Cousins. And his -0.27 Passing Net Expected Points per drop back are dead last among this year's starting quarterbacks to date.
But hear me out. Wentz went up against what could be the league's top defensive line in the Washington Football Team in Week 1, and in Week 2 he had to deal with Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and the Los Angeles Rams. Those two defenses rank third and fourth in our power rankings, respectively, and have been top-five defenses against the pass. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles' Week 3 opponent -- the Cincinnati Bengals -- sit 17th overall and 20th against the pass defensively. They were gashed by the Cleveland Browns a week ago and, per our Heat Map, are expected to give up 26 points to Wentz and company.
Whether they are ahead or not, you should expect Wentz to keep airing it out, as the Eagles are among the top five teams in neutral pass rate to this point. And while everyone else is down on him, you could reap the benefits of a lower roster percentage in a plus matchup.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings Price: $4,900
Projected Points: 15.5
Projected Value: 3.17
Unlike Wentz, Jerick McKinnon is not so contrarian. In fact, the San Francisco 49ers back is likely to be super chalky in the absence of both Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, who will in all likelihood sit with their respective injuries. Jeff Wilson is the only other back of note in Kyle Shanahan's fantasy-friendly offense, and McKinnon is more likely to get the pass-game love against the New York Giants.
The Niners' could see a slight downgrade with Jimmy Garoppolo also injured heading into the new week, however, Nick Mullens was serviceable last year and should help to move the offense. If recent trends stick, he should also be looking to his backs a lot. Through two weeks, San Francisco has thrown to wide receivers at the second-lowest rate and targeted running backs at a 26.67% clip, according to our own J.J. Zachariason.
McKinnon will get receiving work, but if he's able to get double-digit carries he's going to blow past his salary. He's already taken 6 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown in his 32 offensive snaps. That insane efficiency should play well with even a marginally higher workload this Sunday.
KJ Hamler, WR, Denver Broncos
DraftKings Price: $3,000
Projected Points: 8.2
Projected Value: 2.72
Following the Week 2 injury-fest, K.J. Hamler is another player you want to target as a result of an ailing teammate. Courtland Sutton has been ruled out for the remainder of the season, and the rookie speedster is a candidate for more looks in the Denver Broncos' offense.
Catching passes from both Drew Lock and Jeff Driskel, the Penn State product converted 7 targets into 3 catches and 48 yards, for a total of 8.7 DraftKings points against the tough Pittsburgh Steelers' defense. Even more promising is Hamler's 62% snap rate and 116 air yards, the latter of which ranked 10th among all wideouts this past week -- according to Rotoworld's Hayden Winks.
Tampa won't be the easiest egg to crack, yet Hamler is listed at the bare minimum. All you need are four catches and 50-plus yards for him to return three points for every $1,000. A touchdown would simply be icing on the cake.
Drew Sample, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
DraftKings Price: $3,500
Projected Points: 5.8
Projected Value: 1.65
On the opposite side of Wentz and his two stud tight ends -- Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert -- this week is a fantasy stud in the making in Drew Sample. The second-year tight end entered 2020 with only nine games, six targets, and five catches to his name. Yet, here we are: through a mere two games he has himself 8 catches on 10 targets for 52 yards.
The majority of Sample's production came against the Browns one week ago, when Sample stepped in for the injured C.J. Uzomah. Partially aided by the comeback game script, he hauled in 7-of-9 targets and produced 45 yards as one of Joe Burrow's go-to receivers. Again, we saw Burrow and his tendency to throw comfortably to inside pass-catchers. Not only did the rookie QB pepper slot man Justin Jefferson while at LSU, but he connected with his tight end 47 times for 570 yards and 4 touchdowns. And to boot, Uzomah had garnered 8 catches and 11 targets through his game-and-a-half with Burrow under center.
Last week, Sample's 11.5 fantasy points were actually 2.9 short of his 14.4 expected fantasy points (Uzomah had 12.1 before exiting), according to DynastyProcess.com. Couple that with the fact that the Eagles are the only team to allow four passing scores so far to tight ends, and you have yourself a recipe for high fantasy value at the dreaded tight end spot.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.