FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Titans at Broncos
Tennessee is a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is listed at 40.5 points. This doesn't look like a game in which we'll see a ton of offense. The spread has shifted a point in the Titans' favor since Von Miller was ruled out. Miller's injury and the lack of a full crowd in Denver make this an easier-than-usual road clash for Tennessee.
Per our oddsFire tool, the public is backing the Titans. Of bets on the spread, 73% of the bets and 67% of the money is coming in on Tennessee.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Derrick Henry, Titans ($15,500)
As is the case with any Week 1 game this year, the lack of preseason action means there is a lot we don't know about both teams. One thing we do know about the Titans -- they want to feed Derrick Henry.
Tennessee found a winning formula down the stretch in 2019, and said formula was to pound Henry, limit pass attempts and play solid defense. After getting to the AFC title game, the Titans probably aren't super motivated to change their strategy.
The Titans being favored is a huge feather in Henry's cap. Over Tennessee's last five wins, counting the playoffs, Henry has logged 30, 34, 32, 18 and 26 rushing attempts. Yes, Henry does very little as a pass-catcher, but when you see that kind of volume on the ground, it doesn't matter too much.
If you're building a lineup under the assumption of a positive game script for the favored Titans, Henry makes all the sense in the world, and with neither quarterback screaming upside, Henry could be the most popular MVP choice. Our model projects him for 16.4 FanDuel points -- tops among all players on the slate.
Drew Lock, Broncos ($14,500)
I'll be honest -- I have no idea what to expect from this Denver offense. With the addition of Melvin Gordon ($13,000) and Jerry Jeudy ($8,000), there's a lot to be sorted out in this attack. And then Courtland Sutton ($12,000) got hurt at Thursday's practice, putting his status up in the air as well as throwing a grenade into one of the few things we could feel like we did know about the Broncos' offense (that Sutton would be their number-one receiver).
In DFS we may be able to take advantage of all the uncertainty surrounding this offense by using Drew Lock in the MVP spot. Lock was mostly meh in his five-game sample as a rookie, throwing for more than 208 yards just once. He did, however, have decent volume, attempting at least 27 passes in each start. And in his one loss, he threw 40 passes, although he totaled only 208 yards.
If you're thinking Tennessee wins, Lock makes sense as he could see nice volume in a Denver loss. In that scenario, he's more appealing than Ryan Tannehill, who could spend much of a Titans victory sticking the ball in Henry's belly. If you want to be contrarian, you can build for a Denver win and hope Lock gets the touchdowns instead of the scores coming on the ground.
A.J. Brown, Titans ($11,500)
A.J. Brown was a revelation last year as a rookie. He finished with 1,051 yards and 8 scores, giving the Titans a big-time playmaker on the outside.
Brown really upped his game once Tannehill took over, going for at least 114 yards four times over his final six regular-season outings. The good news is that three of those games came in Tennessee wins, so he produced even in positive game scripts. The negative is that he's going to have a hard time maintaining his crazy-good efficiency from last year, which was boosted by his big-play prowess.
Brown makes more sense if you're building for Tennessee to see a negative game script. But he'll likely be fairly popular just because the Titans don't have fantasy options we can feel good about other than him, Tanny and Henry. Those three are the only Titans we have projected for more than 6.3 FanDuel points.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos ($8,000)
Jeudy became a lot more appealing once Sutton went down. A first-round draft pick, Jeudy was a stud at Alabama, averaging at least 86 yards per game in each of his final two college seasons, which were his age-19 and age-20 campaigns. He also led the nation in receptions of 15-plus yards over that two-year run.
It's a little scary to invest in a wideout in their very first pro game, but Jeudy fits as a modest-salaried run-it-back piece in lineups built under the idea that Tennessee wins.
Tim Patrick, Broncos ($6,000)
With Sutton looking iffy and K.J. Hamler practicing on only a limited basis after missing some of camp, Tim Patrick could be Denver's number-two wideout in Week 1. At a salary of $6,000, he's easy to like.
While Patrick hasn't done too much in his two-year career, this is a roll of the dice on opportunity. If Sutton is out and Hamler is limited (or out) and Denver sees a negative game script, Patrick would likely get decent volume. We project him for 4.86 targets, and our model still has Sutton accounting for 4.02 looks, so there's upside for more for Patrick if Sutton sits.