Super Bowl Odds for Each Team Entering the 2020 Season
Incredible as it may seem, Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season is finally upon us. After an uncertain offseason, the NFL will take to the field this week, starting on Thursday night.
All 32 teams are driven by a single goal -- to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LV.
|Kansas City Chiefs||+650||10.4%|
|San Francisco 49ers||+900||9.2%|
|New Orleans Saints||+1200||8.5%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1500||3.9%|
|New England Patriots||+2300||5.0%|
|Green Bay Packers||+3100||3.8%|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+4000||1.3%|
|Los Angeles Rams||+4000||2.8%|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+6000||0.7%|
|New York Giants||+8500||0.3%|
|New York Jets||+8500||0.4%|
Our odds come courtesy of our nERD metric -- which measures the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average opponent on a neutral field. At present, the Baltimore Ravens have a nERD rating of 5.90. This tops the league and reinforces their betting status as favorites to win the Super Bowl.
By contrast, the Cincinnati Bengals are all the way at the opposite end of the nERD scale. They have a -6.23 rating, the lowest among all 32 teams despite Cincy having shorter betting odds than the Jacksonville Jaguars.
A lot can change in a year, especially in the NFL. Comparing these odds to 2019, a few things jump out. Two of the very best teams in the league -- the Ravens and San Francisco 49ers -- were viewed in a much different light 12 months ago. We gave Baltimore a 4.2% chance to win last year's Super Bowl while San Fran was down at 1.1%.
On the flip side, the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots have headed the other way. Prior to Week 1 last year, we handed New England an 11.5% chance to win it all while the Bolts had 7.8% title odds.
These odds won't remain the same throughout the year, of course. As more games are played, more teams will fall out of contention while other teams will make more forceful statements with regards the likelihood of them being the ones to lift the trophy at the end of the season. I'll be checking every week for the changes to these odds and will report back on the biggest movers and shakers as the season progresses.
Football is finally back, everyone!