Projecting the Philadelphia Eagles Without Alshon Jeffery
With news that Alshon Jeffery may start the 2020 season on the physically unable to perform list, the Philadelphia Eagles' wide receiver situation may have gotten a little easier to figure out just now.
Jeffery sustained a Lisfranc injury in December of 2019 and just may not be ready for the 2020 season.
While Jeffery wasn't a lock for a huge role, his absence would undoubtedly open up opportunities for up-and-coming (and another aging) receiver. Plus two game-changing tight ends.
Here's how our algorithm views the Eagles' offense without Jeffery for six weeks.
Projecting the Eagles
There's a reason there isn't an abundance of love for the Eagles' receivers in fantasy football right now. According to FantasyPros' expert consensus rankings, no Philly wideout is ranked better than the WR57. That'd be rookie Jalen Reagor right at WR57. DeSean Jackson is listed at WR59, and Jeffery is sitting at WR61.
With Jeffery slotted in for the first six weeks, numberFire's projections aren't expecting too much. Our projections put Reagor at WR52 in half-PPR formats over the first six games with Jeffery (WR60) and Jackson (WR61) filling in as non-options as well.
Zach Ertz is pegged as the TE4 with a per-game average of 9.0 half-PPR points per game, and Dallas Goedert projects to be the TE16. Carson Wentz is our QB10 through six games with Jeffery in the fold (17.08 FanDuel points per game).
Removing Jeffery from the equation, Reagor vaults up near flex territory as the WR39 on the full season, and Jackson gets up to the WR50. Through six weeks, however, is where Reagor's value jumps the most. He comes in as the WR32, giving him some immediate value. Jackson rates out as the WR47, still not a super viable weekly option, based on our algorithm.
Ertz remains stagnant in the rankings as the TE4 through six weeks, and Goedert remains the TE16. There isn't a significant shift in value anywhere aside from Reagor.
Taking Jeffery out for six weeks, numberFire's projections see Reagor going for 746.5 yards, which puts him in the over conversation at FanDuel Sportsbook (where his over/under on the season is 700.5 yards). Reagor's touchdown projection also vaults to 5.23, giving him some value on the over at 4.5 (though it's listed at -118).
Ertz still comes in under his touchdown over/under of 7.5 with 5.91 scores without Jeffery for six weeks, and he's projected for 736.0 yards without Jeffery. His over/under is 924.5. Woof. We can still go at the unders on Ertz even without Jeffery because of Goedert's presence.
Wentz, without Jeffery, is projected for 3,946 yards, slightly over his prop of 3,899.5. There's more value on the over for his touchdown prop (27.5). We project him for 29.9 touchdowns even without Alshon for six games.
The Bottom Line
Aside from Reagor, this just wouldn't a splashy enough absence to change anything significantly for fantasy, but there is reason to buy in on Reagor at his current draft cost.
There's also plenty of opportunity to dig in on the player props at FanDuel Sportsbook as a result. Ertz is still overpriced, Wentz can outperform his touchdown prop, and Reagor could see enough work to hit his overs.