Denzel Mims' Yardage and Touchdown Unders Look Like Easy Money
After the departure of Robby Anderson, it was expected the Jets would address the wide receiver position early on considering how talented the class was. Instead, they bolstered the offensive line by selecting Mekhi Becton and nabbed Mims in the second round.
Mims had phenomenal pre-draft workouts and his draft stock soared based on the raw talent he exhibited. Will the Mims we saw over the offseason make an impact in his rookie season? Let’s take a look at his receiving yards and receiving touchdowns prop bets on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Receiving Yards Prop
FanDuel Sportsbook: 609.5 yards
Mims is an interesting player to evaluate based on his performance in college compared to the combine. He is a towering -- 6'3", 207 lbs -- receiver, who frequently had jump ball opportunities yet had average success in these opportunities. The reason for this is his struggle to consistently secure the ball. In his final season at Baylor, Mims finished with 66 receptions, 1020 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns -- with a catch rate of 61.7%.
Mims was a big play waiting to happen in college but surprised by running the 3rd fastest 40-yard dash (4.38) and the fastest 3-cone drill (6.66) among all wide receivers -- which gives him a height-adjusted speed score good for the 96th percentile among all receiver prospects, via PlayerProfiler.
Before the draft, the Jets filled Robby Anderson’s role by signing Breshad Perriman, who will presumably start alongside Jamison Crowder. Perriman and Mims profile similarly considering both have blistering speed and are big targets. This could hurt Mims’ snap share, capping his upside.
In 2019, the three receiving leaders for the Jets were Crowder (834 yards), Anderson (763 yards), and Le'Veon Bell (461 yards). Also, the Jets ranked 21st in passing plays (573), ranked worst in the league in Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points per Pass (minus 0.07).
Additionally, Sam Darnold ranked 29th in Passing Net Expect Points (12.35) among passers with at least 150 dropbacks. Lastly, the AFC East will be a tough division to pass on against Miami’s high-paid secondary, Buffalo’s elite defense, and New England with Stephon Gilmore.
Our projections favor the under and forecast Mims will finish with 445.88 receiving yards.
Receiving Touchdowns Prop
FanDuel Sportsbook: 5.5 touchdowns
In his senior season, Mims scored on 18.2% of his receptions. He is a big-bodied receiver who figures to become a red-zone threat further in his career.
This is an interesting line considering the Jets had three players with five or more touchdowns. Anderson had five touchdowns, but his role is expected to be filled by Perriman. With the Jets' most productive receivers returning, it leaves little room for Mims to absorb responsibility in his first season -- especially, after a shortened offseason.
Taking into account all of Adam Gase’s seasons as a head coach since 2016, he has only ever had a second receiver score more than five touchdowns once (six touchdowns by Kenny Stills in 2017).
This touchdown line may be higher on Mims' red-zone ability than is realistic based on Gase’s offensive history.
We project Mims will finish with 2.35 receiving touchdowns, significantly below the current line of 5.5 receiving touchdowns.