NFL

Bet the Over on Aaron Rodgers' Yards and Touchdown Props

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is entering his 16th season in the NFL and is still at the top of the position's totem pole.

Even though Rodgers is coming off a season where he threw for 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions, there seems to be added pressure for this upcoming season. The two-time MVP is fresh off a 13-win season, yet expectations do not seem to match the level we are accustomed to seeing him perform at. That could have something to do with the team's offseason moves -- which hint at Rodgers’ time in Green Bay nearing an end within the next couple of years.

FanDuel Sportsbook has set over/unders of 3,899.5 passing yards and 25.5 passing touchdowns for the eight-time Pro Bowler.

Does Rodgers' uncertain future affect how you should approach next season's betting totals? Let's take a look.

Offseason Disappointment

The 2020 season is already off to an uninspiring start in Green Bay. It was expected that the Packers would draft weapons for Rodgers after an overpowering loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Instead, the Packers drafted their presumed quarterback-of-the-future in Jordan Love and another running back in A.J. Dillon. While Devin Funchess was brought in, he is hardly what we imagine Rodgers was hoping for this offseason.

After a 13-win season, it seems crazy to believe the Packers are this focused on the future when they were so close to another Super Bowl appearance.

Similar to Brett Favre toward the end of his time in Green Bay, this will be a crucial season for Rodgers to prove he is still an elite quarterback.

Historical Production

Over the course of his 16-year career, Rodgers has only failed to hit 3,900 yards and 26 touchdowns once in any of the 10 seasons where he's played 15 or more games.

Last season's advanced metrics don’t necessarily lean in Rodgers' favor, though. He had a Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) of 86.6 in 2019, which was outside the top-10 in the league. Rodgers also finished 23rd in Passing Success Rate -- the percentage of drop backs that lead to positive NEP for a team’s offense -- among quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs.

According to PlayerProfiler, he ranked fourth in the league in red zone attempts (85), yet finished with the second-lowest touchdown percentage of his career (4.6%). Additionally, Rodgers had the second-lowest completion percentage of his career (62%). The volume is there -- Rodgers had the eighth-most drop backs and attempts last year -- but the efficiency we got used to seeing was absent last season.

Projection

These props are assuming that Rodgers will see his numbers continue to dwindle. While the 2019 struggles were relative for Rodgers, they could have been a result of the coaching change and the adjustment to a new scheme.

numberFire's projections have Rodgers throwing for 4,161.42 yards and 28.18 passing touchdowns -- comfortably reaching the over in both categories. Our projections see Rodgers finishing closer to his yardage numbers from 2018 and boosting his scoring output to his highest since 2016.

Under the assumption that Rodgers will return with a healthy Davante Adams and greater handle on the system, I’m smashing the over on both props.