How Should You Bet On Carson Wentz's Yardage and Touchdown Props?
In 2019, Carson Wentz played a full 16-game season for the first time since his rookie year, and he posted or tied career-best marks in yards (4,039), completions (388), attempts (607), and interception rate (1.2%).
For the 2020 season, FanDuel Sportsbook has Wentz's passing yards prop set at 3,849.5 yards (-112) and his passing touchdowns at 27.5 (-108). A year ago, he hit the over in yards and finished with 27 touchdown passes, the second-most in his career.
What kind of numbers will Wentz put up for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2020 and will there be any betting value here?
A year ago, Wentz checked in 18th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. He finished ranked 22nd in True Passer Rating, per PlayerProfiler, and was in the middle of the pack with both his red zone completion percentage (59.7%) and deep-ball completion percentage (34.8%), ranking 18th and 19th, respectively.
He wasn't great by any stretch.
But it's not all on him as the Eagles struggled to help out Wentz, dropping 29 passes, tied for the 10th-most in the league. In addition to that, Wentz's top two wide receivers missed a combined 19 games last season, and the leader in receptions among wideouts was Alshon Jeffery with 43. Nelson Agholor trailed closely behind with 39, but neither was close to the team's three leading receivers, none of whom were actually receivers -- Zach Ertz (88 catches), Dallas Goedert (58), and Miles Sanders (50).
So far in his four-year career, Wentz has averaged 253.4 yards and 1.7 touchdowns touchdowns per game across 56 starts.
|Year||Games||Passing Yards||Completions||Attempts||Completion %||TD Passes|
He's averaged 1.7 passing touchdowns per game along with 253.4 yards per game, which works out to 16-game clips of 4,054.4 yards and 27.2 touchdowns. At that rate, Wentz would surpass the yards prop (3,849.5) and narrowly miss the touchdown prop (27.5) if he played every game in 2020. As we know, that's been a big if with him, however.
NFC East OR NFC Least?
Looking at Philly's 2020 schedule, it might set up better for the Eagles' run game. Five of their opponents, including Washington, a team Philly will face twice, finished 22nd or worse against the run in 2019.
In 2019, the Eagles' division opponents allowed a combined 86 touchdown passes on the season, and Wentz absolutely owned the division. A whopping 42.1% of his passing yards and 40.7% of his passing scores came from his six divisional games.
Versus one of the worst defensive divisions in all of football, Wentz lit it up, and he did so with a pretty shoddy receiver corps. Wentz will hopefully have a healthy DeSean Jackson in 2020 -- DJax had eight grabs for 154 yards and two scores in Week 1 last year, his only fully healthy game all campaign -- and Philadelphia might address the wide receiver position in the first round of the draft, where they're slated to pick 21st overall.
Adding a rookie wideout to Jeffery, Jackson, Ertz, Goedert and Sanders would give Wentz some pretty nice weapons.
What to Bet
At the end of the day, Wentz's injury history is a concern for any season total bet. There's no shying away from that. There is also reason to think the touchdown prop of 27.5 is a bit too high unless Wentz can post a really high touchdown rate. The yardage prop is well within reach, though.
Our JJ Zachariason's projections fall in line with this as he has Wentz pegged for 4,034 passing yards and 25 touchdowns.
I'd take the over on the passing yards while betting on the under with touchdowns.