NFL Draft Betting: How Many Offensive Players Will Be Selected in Round 1?
For all the talk of the wide receivers, quarterbacks, and offensive lineman that this draft has to offer, this is a not-so-slim possibility that round one will feature an equal amount of -- or more -- defensive players.
Along those lines, we're looking at two bets at FanDuel Sportsbook that go hand in hand here -- the number of offensive players in the first round and the number of defensive players. Now, unless we get a Sebastian Janikowski repeat (I'm looking at you, Dave Gettleman), day one will feature only offensive and defensive players. Brilliant analysis, as always.
So let's dig into the odds, projections, and players in order to make a -- somewhat -- educated pick.
At -148, the odds of 17 (or more) offensive players going in round one has an implied probability of 59.7 percent. The odds of 15 or fewer defensive players hearing their names called are, obviously, equal.
However, if you're feeling defensive, you can get the over of 15.5 players on that side of the ball for +116 -- or 46.3 percent implied odds.
Here's a look at what the analysts are projecting.
I compiled the projections of 20 of the most accurate and respected analysts and mock drafters...and my own. Here are the results.
|Expert||THR 5-Year Accuracy||Offensive Players|
|Elisha Twerski (ME!)||17|
The under on 16.5 offensive players hit eight times -- in 38 percent of mocks. Two-thirds of the mocks have either 16 or 17 players on offense selected, which implies that it could be a close call.
Let's take a glance at the players projected to hear their name called on day one.
These players are as close to first-round locks as it gets: LSU's Joe Burrow, Oregon's Justin Herbert, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa, Jedrick Wills Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb, Georgia's Andrew Thomas, Louisville's Mekhi Becton, and Iowa's Tristan Wirfs on the offensive side. Ohio State's Chase Young and Jeff Okudah, Auburn's Derrick Brown, Clemson's Isaiah Simmons, Florida's C.J. Henderson, and South Carolina's Javon Kinlaw on the other side. That's 10 on offense and 6 on defense.
The next few names are ones projected in round one by nearly everyone in the industry: On offense, LSU's Justin Jefferson, Utah State's Jordan Love, and Houston's Josh Jones. Defensively, Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray, and LSU's K'Lavon Chaisson and Kristian Fulton. Barring a flummoxing slide, we're up to 13 and 9, respectively.
Next, we'll rank players by implied odds (from FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook lines) to hear their name called on day one:
Based on the implied odds, we'd have 19 offensive players and 13 defensive players on day one. All that made my pick a whole lot easier.
I started this piece by mentioning all the attention paid to wide receivers and offensive lineman -- I believe it's the latter that will push the over/under 16.5 offensive players to the over. If Georgia's Isaiah Wilson, Michigan's Cesar Ruiz, and USC's Austin Jackson all hear their name called within the first 32 picks -- which I'd bet is more likely than not -- it will be be nearly impossible for the defensive total to pull off the upset.
I'm going with over 16.5 offensive players at -148.