NFL Draft Betting: Cole Kmet's Draft Position Over/Under Is Juicy
FanDuel Sportsbook has a ton of listings we can bet for the NFL Draft and the upcoming NFL season in general.
Seriously, it's hard to dig through everything. That's how much there is. It's awesome.
But I've been digging into this year's tight end draft class, and so I've learned a thing or two about a lot of these guys. One thing I'm picking up on is that it's a pretty open class, and while you'll generally see Notre Dame's Cole Kmet listed at or near the top of the position, he's not a slam dunk number-one.
It follows, then, that his draft position over/under is listed at 44.5, which makes him a high-end second-round pick. Is that where he belongs?
Draft Projections and Draft Class
The first place I like to look is to the consensus to get a gauge on someone like Kmet. I've got my own takes, but are 99% of the analysts on one side?
No, it's not quite that drastic (shocker, right?). According to NFL Mock Draft Database, which aggregates more than 300 mock drafts, Kmet's consensus big board ranking is 50th, and his peak ranking is 36th. The 44.5 is pretty spot on from that high-level view.
Using NFL Mock Draft Database's draft simulator, Kmet went 62nd to the Green Bay Packers in a mock draft with conservative settings and 66th to Washington with aggressive settings. A chaotic draft had him go 100th to the New England Patriots.
Three simulations doesn't really do enough to sell us or anything, but it's pretty clear that 44.5 could be considered at the high end of Kmet's range of outcomes. ESPN ranks Kmet as the number-one tight end but puts him 42nd overall.
And before you think a mid-round designation isn't actually realistic for Kmet, just know that ProFootballFocus' most recent draft guide has Kmet ranked 99th overall with a fourth-round projection. On that note, in the chaotic draft simulation, Kmet was the third tight end drafted behind Missouri's Albert Okwuegbunam and Washington's Hunter Bryant.
And that brings us to the fact that Kmet may not even be the top tight end in the draft on NFL Draft boards. He's outside PFF's top five but is, again, generally the number-one elsewhere. Still, there are some very intriguing tight ends in this crop, especially Okwuegbunam and Bryant. Okwuegbunam has a 99th-percentile size-adjusted speed score, and Bryant is an injury risk with elite upside based on his production profile.
As for Kmet himself, he had only 17 receptions through two years at Notre Dame before putting up a 43-catch, 515-yard, 6-touchdown junior season over 10 games. Kmet has above-average athleticism but enough question marks surrounding his profile to wonder if he's really a can't-miss, high-end pick.
The Bottom Line
Absolutely, a team can see the absolute best in Kmet and draft him as early as the back half of the first round. That's well within the range of outcomes.
However, we're looking at an over/under of 44.5, and that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for Kmet. At his best, we're probably looking at a pick in the high 20s, and he certainly could slip even more past 44.5, as a lot of mocks predict.
We should be inclined to target the over 44.5 (-112) on FanDuel Sportsbook in a pretty wide open tight end class.