NFL Draft Betting: Finding Value on the Eagles' First Pick
Sure, there is a lull in sports right now during an unprecedented time, but we still have plenty to look forward to. The NFL Draft is looming, and FanDuel Sportsbook has tons of props pertaining to the 2020 iteration of the event.
|Eagles' First Selection||FanDuel Sportsbook Odds|
|Justin Jefferson (WR, LSU)||+140|
|Henry Ruggs III (WR, Alabama)||+600|
|Denzel Mims (WR, Baylor)||+700|
|Jerry Jeudy (WR, Alabama)||+800|
|CeeDee Lamb (WR, Oklahoma)||+800|
|Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU)||+850|
|Tee Higgins (WR, Clemson)||+1400|
|Xaiver McKinney (S, Alabama)||+1600|
|Grant Delpit (S, LSU)||+1700|
A few things here: the first is that there is a clear expectation that the Eagles address wide receiver in the first round, as the top-seven players listed here by odds are wideouts. The second is that there's a lot of expectation that it's Justin Jefferson out of LSU to go to the Eagles at 21st overall.
A few things about this list overall: Lamb, Ruggs III, and Jeudy all project to be off the board in the top 15, so we can cross them off unless you think Ruggs III falls in the draft for whatever reason. That then pits Philadelphia with a tier drop to the next set of receivers -- provided they view the draft board as the consensus sees it.
Now, 23.5% of Eagles-specific mock drafts from NFL Mock Draft Database predict that it will be Jefferson donning the midnight green in 2020. That's not quite on par with the listed odds at +140, which are above 40%.
A lot can happen in the draft, so it's tough to latch onto Jefferson at +140. Teams can reach for Jefferson. Ruggs III could slip. Philadelphia may wind up preferring Mims or Reagor or Higgins.
In fact, if we use the Eagles-specific mocks, there's positive expected value on both Ruggs III (drafted by Philadelphia in 18.1% of mocks) and Tee Higgins (9.0%). That could be Philadelphia-centric optimism about Ruggs' fall, but the point remains that Higgins, Mims, or Reagor could be the Eagles' choice.
And we're fixating on the receivers here. It's not uncommon to see the Eagles address the secondary in the first round and then take advantage of the receiver depth in the second round. Both McKinney (+1600) and Delpit (+1700) at long odds would offer a big yield.
The bottom line here is that even though Jefferson to Philadelphia is the consensus for now, a lot can happen by pick 21. There's value on Ruggs III, Higgins, and both safeties. Punting with Higgins (+1400) and one of the safeties (crowdsourced data prefers McKinney at +1600) is a cheap way to access a big win on the opening night of the draft.