Daily Fantasy Football Quarterback Primer: Week 14
Welcome to another edition of my weekly NFL DFS quarterback primer article. Each week I will be looking to find an edge at the quarterback position for daily fantasy football contests.
In this weekly column, you will find the best value quarterbacks for tournaments and head-to-head cash games. Additionally, I will highlight one or two quarterbacks to avoid in the upcoming week.
Without further ado, let's dig in for Week 14.
Best Overall Play of the Week
Deshaun Watson ($7,700) -- Our projections have Watson as the number one value play across all positions in Week 14. Last week, Watson had the best fantasy performance any passer has had against the stout New England Patriots defense so far this season. Now he gets a the Denver Broncos, who have been solid against opposing quarterbacks for most of the year. They have allowed the fifth fewest points against at the position, but they rank as an average overall passing defense, according to our power rankings, which adjust for strength of opponent. The Denver defense has struggled the past few weeks against the pass, allowing at least two touchdown passes in each of their last three games, and Von Miller might sit out. Fire up Watson with confidence in both tournaments and cash games this week.
Jameis Winston ($7,700) -- In a game with the highest over/under on the main slate, we can expect a big day from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense. Stacking Winston with a couple of the Buccaneers pass catchers could be the recipe for maximum upside in tournaments. We all know Winston has struggled with turnovers this season as he leads the league in interceptions by a wide margin. He has thrown two or more interceptions in 58% of his games this year. He will be up against an Indianapolis Colts defense that has not allowed a quarterback to score more than 20 FanDuel points since Week 4. However, Winston could be the one to break that trend. His floor makes him an easy fade in cash, but his upside makes him hard to ignore in tournaments. We have seen Winston finish inside the top-three at the position twice this season, and he is averaging the third most passing yards per game. Play Winston as a high-risk, high-reward option in tournaments. Winston is the second best point-per-dollar play across all positions, according to our models.
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) -- Despite the high price tag, Mahomes ranks as the fourth best value play of Week 14 going by our numbers. This week, Mahomes gets a matchup with the Patriots, who have the top-ranked pass defense, per our metrics. Only two quarterbacks have surpassed 20 fantasy points against the Patriots this season: Lamar Jackson (Week 9) and Deshaun Watson (Week 13). However, we need to be considering Mahomes in tournaments in a week in which we could see him have his lowest ownership of the season. Mahomes has thrown at least six deep-ball attempts (passes that travel at least 16 air yards) in all but one of his games this year. Furthermore, the Patriots have been without their number-two cornerback, Jason McCourty, for the past two weeks. If he is out again this week, that should open up things for Mahomes. Mahomes is the only quarterback our models have projected for more than 300 passing yards. This type of upside is exactly what we are looking for in tournaments.
Lamar Jackson ($9,000) -- Jackson is currently on pace to break the single-season rushing record for quarterbacks ... in Week 14. Let that sink in. We have been riding Jackson in cash all season, and even with a tough road matchup against the Buffalo Bills, we need to stick with him in Week 14. Jackson has the safest floor in fantasy football due to his rushing ability. Our models have Jackson projected for a conservative 54 rushing yards, while his season average is 81 rushing yards per game. Jackson is once again the most expensive player on the main slate, but his floor is too high to pass up in cash. He is the sixth best value play of the week, according to our projections. Fire up Jackson with confidence once again.
Quarterback to Avoid
Kyler Murray ($7,500) -- Murray has been a frequent name suggested in this column so far this season. However, there is reason for concern for the rookie signal-caller in Week 14. Murray will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have the third-best pass defense in the league, per our metrics. Since Week 3, only one quarterback has scored more than 20 FanDuel points against this stout secondary. It is also worth noting that Lamar Jackson had his worst game of the season against this Pittsburgh defense back in Week 5. Our models have Murray projected for an optimistic 19.9 fantasy points this week, making him the third best value. Murray, however, has a dangerously low floor in this difficult matchup. We should be looking elsewhere in Week 14.
Samuel Factor is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Samuel Factor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Samfact2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.