NFL

Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 13

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel

FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection

Value: Projected FanDuel points per \$1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-\$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.

Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.

Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.

75th Pct:
The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
25+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Patrick Mahomes \$8,600 23.3 38.6% 1.87 43.0% 28.7
Lamar Jackson \$8,700 22.8 34.3% 1.47 40.2% 28.0
Kyler Murray \$7,700 19.8 34.7% 1.18 24.9% 24.9
Carson Wentz \$7,300 19.2 38.2% 1.50 22.0% 24.3
Aaron Rodgers \$8,100 19.1 27.5% 0.86 24.4% 24.9
Jameis Winston \$7,600 18.8 28.6% 0.91 20.0% 23.6
Jared Goff \$7,900 17.9 21.1% 0.51 17.0% 22.9
Nick Foles \$7,500 17.0 20.9% 0.52 12.8% 21.6
Sam Darnold \$7,600 16.8 21.2% 0.55 13.9% 21.7
Jacoby Brissett \$7,200 16.7 25.3% 0.64 13.3% 21.6
Ryan Tannehill \$7,300 16.6 22.9% 0.58 12.3% 21.4
Daniel Jones \$7,400 16.5 22.3% 0.57 13.0% 21.4
Derek Carr \$7,200 15.9 23.2% 0.57 11.1% 21.2
Jimmy Garoppolo \$8,000 15.7 14.8% 0.30 11.6% 21.5
Philip Rivers \$7,300 15.6 20.6% 0.48 10.0% 21.0
Baker Mayfield \$7,600 15.4 16.2% 0.33 9.9% 20.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick \$7,100 15.3 20.3% 0.45 9.0% 20.0
Kyle Allen \$7,200 15.3 19.6% 0.45 10.2% 20.5
Andy Dalton \$6,000 15.0 33.5% 0.99 9.3% 20.0
Devlin Hodges \$6,800 13.7 18.4% 0.38 5.5% 18.8
Dwayne Haskins Jr. \$6,500 11.8 12.9% 0.22 2.9% 16.2
Brandon Allen \$6,600 11.7 3.8% 0.06 0.3% 14.9

Cash-Game Standouts: Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz

Tournament Standouts: Patrick Mahomes, Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
20+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Christian McCaffrey \$11,000 25.0 21.6% 0.52 65.3% 31.9
Leonard Fournette \$7,600 17.8 30.4% 0.79 41.1% 24.1
Saquon Barkley \$7,600 16.8 25.4% 0.63 36.8% 22.9
Le'Veon Bell \$7,300 15.7 22.1% 0.48 31.0% 21.3
Josh Jacobs \$7,700 15.1 14.9% 0.30 27.9% 20.8
Derrick Henry \$8,600 15.0 8.0% 0.13 26.9% 20.5
Todd Gurley II \$7,400 14.8 17.1% 0.34 25.2% 20.0
Aaron Jones \$8,000 14.4 12.1% 0.21 25.2% 20.0
Nick Chubb \$8,200 13.9 7.7% 0.12 21.1% 19.1
Melvin Gordon III \$7,000 13.3 14.2% 0.27 17.9% 18.3
Joe Mixon \$6,500 12.5 16.7% 0.30 15.1% 17.1
Phillip Lindsay \$6,300 12.5 22.2% 0.43 17.8% 18.3
Miles Sanders \$5,800 12.4 25.2% 0.53 14.9% 17.4
Jonathan Williams \$6,800 12.0 9.4% 0.16 10.8% 16.5
Mark Ingram II \$7,500 11.5 5.4% 0.08 10.2% 16.4
Kenyan Drake \$6,400 11.2 9.2% 0.15 7.2% 15.3
Austin Ekeler \$6,700 11.2 8.4% 0.13 8.5% 15.4
Ronald Jones II \$6,200 10.6 9.1% 0.15 6.3% 14.7
Tevin Coleman \$6,100 10.5 12.1% 0.20 7.4% 15.3
Jamaal Williams \$5,600 9.9 12.4% 0.21 5.1% 13.9
LeSean McCoy \$5,800 9.9 11.5% 0.19 6.7% 14.1
Kareem Hunt \$5,900 9.2 5.9% 0.09 2.7% 13.3
Benny Snell Jr. \$6,100 9.2 7.7% 0.11 5.4% 13.5
Derrius Guice \$5,400 8.1 7.1% 0.10 1.8% 11.5
Kalen Ballage \$5,300 7.8 9.4% 0.14 2.1% 11.7
Nyheim Hines \$5,500 7.7 4.9% 0.07 1.2% 11.2
Jaylen Samuels \$5,500 7.6 3.8% 0.05 0.8% 11.2
Royce Freeman \$5,300 7.0 3.8% 0.05 0.3% 10.4
Matt Breida \$5,900 6.7 3.6% 0.04 1.4% 10.6

Cash-Game Standouts:
Leonard Fournette

Tournament Standouts: Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Le'Veon Bell, Phillip Lindsay, Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, Josh Jacobs

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Tyreek Hill \$8,300 16.5 47.3% 1.35 54.3% 22.2
Davante Adams \$8,000 15.3 47.3% 1.41 52.8% 20.3
Chris Godwin \$8,200 13.8 37.1% 0.90 45.0% 19.6
Mike Evans \$7,700 13.7 39.8% 1.06 42.4% 18.4
Cooper Kupp \$7,800 13.6 37.3% 0.97 41.5% 17.9
DJ Moore \$6,800 12.9 45.1% 1.30 35.9% 17.2
DJ Chark Jr. \$6,900 12.6 43.2% 1.20 34.6% 16.9
Odell Beckham Jr. \$7,300 12.3 38.9% 0.96 37.0% 17.4
Jarvis Landry \$7,400 12.1 34.0% 0.77 32.6% 16.3
Christian Kirk \$6,100 11.9 49.2% 1.53 31.9% 16.5
DeVante Parker \$6,000 11.8 48.3% 1.53 31.2% 16.2
Keenan Allen \$6,800 11.8 37.9% 0.92 30.4% 16.0
Courtland Sutton \$6,600 11.5 38.3% 0.91 28.7% 15.7
Tyler Boyd \$6,000 11.4 45.7% 1.30 29.5% 15.7
Robert Woods \$7,100 11.3 30.5% 0.67 26.1% 15.2
T.Y. Hilton \$7,000 10.8 16.2% 0.37 9.5% 13.0
Sammy Watkins \$6,100 10.7 42.1% 1.03 26.8% 15.4
Jamison Crowder \$6,300 10.5 31.8% 0.70 18.2% 13.9
Alshon Jeffery \$6,500 10.1 29.7% 0.59 18.5% 13.8
Tyrell Williams \$6,200 10.0 35.2% 0.80 20.8% 14.1
Sterling Shepard \$5,900 10.0 38.9% 0.93 20.4% 14.0
Terry McLaurin \$5,800 9.8 37.5% 0.86 19.1% 13.8
Brandin Cooks \$6,700 9.5 26.8% 0.50 18.5% 13.7
Dede Westbrook \$5,700 9.4 35.6% 0.84 13.8% 13.1
Curtis Samuel \$5,800 9.1 32.1% 0.66 14.4% 12.8
Marquise Brown \$5,600 8.9 34.1% 0.73 13.4% 12.7
Larry Fitzgerald \$5,700 8.9 30.6% 0.64 12.3% 12.5
A.J. Brown \$5,300 8.9 36.5% 0.80 13.8% 12.6
Emmanuel Sanders \$6,400 8.8 21.8% 0.39 10.9% 12.3
Darius Slayton \$6,300 8.7 25.4% 0.45 14.6% 12.7
Mike Williams \$5,700 8.7 30.9% 0.61 13.3% 12.4
Deebo Samuel \$5,600 8.6 30.2% 0.61 11.5% 11.9
Chris Conley \$6,000 8.1 22.8% 0.41 9.4% 11.7
Diontae Johnson \$5,300 8.1 31.7% 0.63 9.8% 11.8
James Washington \$6,200 8.1 22.3% 0.39 10.5% 11.9
Robby Anderson \$6,100 8.0 22.1% 0.40 9.9% 11.6
Auden Tate \$5,200 8.0 32.6% 0.65 9.2% 11.6
Allen Hurns \$5,100 7.7 32.3% 0.68 6.1% 11.2
Corey Davis \$5,200 7.7 30.0% 0.59 8.2% 11.2
Demaryius Thomas \$5,200 7.6 28.4% 0.55 7.4% 10.9
Golden Tate \$6,300 7.4 6.0% 0.08 1.2% 9.5
Zach Pascal \$5,400 7.3 26.0% 0.46 8.2% 11.0

Cash-Game Standouts: DeVante Parker

Tournament Standouts: Christian Kirk, DeVante Parker, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Boyd, Davante Adams, D.J. Moore, Sammy Watkins, D.J. Chark, Chris Godwin

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Travis Kelce \$7,100 13.9 45.6% 1.32 41.6% 18.5
George Kittle \$7,000 12.8 45.0% 1.28 39.2% 17.9
Zach Ertz \$6,900 12.2 39.8% 1.02 32.5% 16.0
Hunter Henry \$6,600 11.4 40.7% 1.05 30.5% 15.8
Darren Waller \$6,100 10.7 38.3% 0.94 21.2% 14.2
Mark Andrews \$6,500 10.0 33.5% 0.75 22.5% 14.5
Greg Olsen \$5,100 7.8 30.1% 0.64 7.4% 11.0
Jack Doyle \$5,000 7.6 34.8% 0.72 9.5% 11.5
Noah Fant \$5,100 7.4 29.9% 0.59 5.9% 11.1
Evan Engram \$6,400 7.4 5.5% 0.07 0.6% 9.4
Dallas Goedert \$5,200 7.3 27.8% 0.52 6.5% 10.8
Mike Gesicki \$5,000 7.2 29.5% 0.56 6.0% 10.9
Ryan Griffin \$5,600 6.8 16.3% 0.26 4.7% 9.8
Gerald Everett \$6,300 6.4 3.1% 0.04 0.7% 8.5
Jonnu Smith \$5,300 6.1 17.6% 0.26 4.0% 9.2
Vance McDonald \$5,000 5.8 19.4% 0.31 2.4% 9.2
Tyler Eifert \$4,700 5.6 21.8% 0.36 1.9% 8.9
Jimmy Graham \$5,800 5.4 8.6% 0.12 2.3% 8.9
Nick Boyle \$4,800 4.7 11.4% 0.16 0.4% 7.4
O.J. Howard \$4,800 4.4 11.5% 0.16 1.0% 7.4
Tyler Higbee \$5,500 4.4 8.5% 0.11 1.4% 7.5
Cameron Brate \$5,000 4.3 9.5% 0.12 0.5% 7.3
Kaden Smith \$4,000 4.3 18.4% 0.28 0.6% 7.1

Cash-Game Standouts:
Travis Kelce

Tournament Standouts: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz