Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 13
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.
Table Terms
Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.
Quarterback
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
25+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,600 | 23.3 | 38.6% | 1.87 | 43.0% | 28.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,700 | 22.8 | 34.3% | 1.47 | 40.2% | 28.0 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,700 | 19.8 | 34.7% | 1.18 | 24.9% | 24.9 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,300 | 19.2 | 38.2% | 1.50 | 22.0% | 24.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $8,100 | 19.1 | 27.5% | 0.86 | 24.4% | 24.9 |
| Jameis Winston | $7,600 | 18.8 | 28.6% | 0.91 | 20.0% | 23.6 |
| Jared Goff | $7,900 | 17.9 | 21.1% | 0.51 | 17.0% | 22.9 |
| Nick Foles | $7,500 | 17.0 | 20.9% | 0.52 | 12.8% | 21.6 |
| Sam Darnold | $7,600 | 16.8 | 21.2% | 0.55 | 13.9% | 21.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $7,200 | 16.7 | 25.3% | 0.64 | 13.3% | 21.6 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,300 | 16.6 | 22.9% | 0.58 | 12.3% | 21.4 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,400 | 16.5 | 22.3% | 0.57 | 13.0% | 21.4 |
| Derek Carr | $7,200 | 15.9 | 23.2% | 0.57 | 11.1% | 21.2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $8,000 | 15.7 | 14.8% | 0.30 | 11.6% | 21.5 |
| Philip Rivers | $7,300 | 15.6 | 20.6% | 0.48 | 10.0% | 21.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | $7,600 | 15.4 | 16.2% | 0.33 | 9.9% | 20.5 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7,100 | 15.3 | 20.3% | 0.45 | 9.0% | 20.0 |
| Kyle Allen | $7,200 | 15.3 | 19.6% | 0.45 | 10.2% | 20.5 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,000 | 15.0 | 33.5% | 0.99 | 9.3% | 20.0 |
| Devlin Hodges | $6,800 | 13.7 | 18.4% | 0.38 | 5.5% | 18.8 |
| Dwayne Haskins Jr. | $6,500 | 11.8 | 12.9% | 0.22 | 2.9% | 16.2 |
| Brandon Allen | $6,600 | 11.7 | 3.8% | 0.06 | 0.3% | 14.9 |
Cash-Game Standouts: Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray
Tournament Standouts: Patrick Mahomes, Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Aaron Rodgers
Running Back
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 3x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
20+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $11,000 | 25.0 | 21.6% | 0.52 | 65.3% | 31.9 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,600 | 17.8 | 30.4% | 0.79 | 41.1% | 24.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | $7,600 | 16.8 | 25.4% | 0.63 | 36.8% | 22.9 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $7,300 | 15.7 | 22.1% | 0.48 | 31.0% | 21.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,700 | 15.1 | 14.9% | 0.30 | 27.9% | 20.8 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,600 | 15.0 | 8.0% | 0.13 | 26.9% | 20.5 |
| Todd Gurley II | $7,400 | 14.8 | 17.1% | 0.34 | 25.2% | 20.0 |
| Aaron Jones | $8,000 | 14.4 | 12.1% | 0.21 | 25.2% | 20.0 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,200 | 13.9 | 7.7% | 0.12 | 21.1% | 19.1 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $7,000 | 13.3 | 14.2% | 0.27 | 17.9% | 18.3 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,500 | 12.5 | 16.7% | 0.30 | 15.1% | 17.1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,300 | 12.5 | 22.2% | 0.43 | 17.8% | 18.3 |
| Miles Sanders | $5,800 | 12.4 | 25.2% | 0.53 | 14.9% | 17.4 |
| Jonathan Williams | $6,800 | 12.0 | 9.4% | 0.16 | 10.8% | 16.5 |
| Mark Ingram II | $7,500 | 11.5 | 5.4% | 0.08 | 10.2% | 16.4 |
| Kenyan Drake | $6,400 | 11.2 | 9.2% | 0.15 | 7.2% | 15.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | $6,700 | 11.2 | 8.4% | 0.13 | 8.5% | 15.4 |
| Ronald Jones II | $6,200 | 10.6 | 9.1% | 0.15 | 6.3% | 14.7 |
| Tevin Coleman | $6,100 | 10.5 | 12.1% | 0.20 | 7.4% | 15.3 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,600 | 9.9 | 12.4% | 0.21 | 5.1% | 13.9 |
| LeSean McCoy | $5,800 | 9.9 | 11.5% | 0.19 | 6.7% | 14.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,900 | 9.2 | 5.9% | 0.09 | 2.7% | 13.3 |
| Benny Snell Jr. | $6,100 | 9.2 | 7.7% | 0.11 | 5.4% | 13.5 |
| Derrius Guice | $5,400 | 8.1 | 7.1% | 0.10 | 1.8% | 11.5 |
| Kalen Ballage | $5,300 | 7.8 | 9.4% | 0.14 | 2.1% | 11.7 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,500 | 7.7 | 4.9% | 0.07 | 1.2% | 11.2 |
| Jaylen Samuels | $5,500 | 7.6 | 3.8% | 0.05 | 0.8% | 11.2 |
| Royce Freeman | $5,300 | 7.0 | 3.8% | 0.05 | 0.3% | 10.4 |
| Matt Breida | $5,900 | 6.7 | 3.6% | 0.04 | 1.4% | 10.6 |
Cash-Game Standouts: Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Christian McCaffrey, Le'Veon Bell, Phillip Lindsay
Tournament Standouts: Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Le'Veon Bell, Phillip Lindsay, Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon
Wide Receiver
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | $8,300 | 16.5 | 47.3% | 1.35 | 54.3% | 22.2 |
| Davante Adams | $8,000 | 15.3 | 47.3% | 1.41 | 52.8% | 20.3 |
| Chris Godwin | $8,200 | 13.8 | 37.1% | 0.90 | 45.0% | 19.6 |
| Mike Evans | $7,700 | 13.7 | 39.8% | 1.06 | 42.4% | 18.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | $7,800 | 13.6 | 37.3% | 0.97 | 41.5% | 17.9 |
| DJ Moore | $6,800 | 12.9 | 45.1% | 1.30 | 35.9% | 17.2 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,900 | 12.6 | 43.2% | 1.20 | 34.6% | 16.9 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $7,300 | 12.3 | 38.9% | 0.96 | 37.0% | 17.4 |
| Jarvis Landry | $7,400 | 12.1 | 34.0% | 0.77 | 32.6% | 16.3 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,100 | 11.9 | 49.2% | 1.53 | 31.9% | 16.5 |
| DeVante Parker | $6,000 | 11.8 | 48.3% | 1.53 | 31.2% | 16.2 |
| Keenan Allen | $6,800 | 11.8 | 37.9% | 0.92 | 30.4% | 16.0 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,600 | 11.5 | 38.3% | 0.91 | 28.7% | 15.7 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,000 | 11.4 | 45.7% | 1.30 | 29.5% | 15.7 |
| Robert Woods | $7,100 | 11.3 | 30.5% | 0.67 | 26.1% | 15.2 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $7,000 | 10.8 | 16.2% | 0.37 | 9.5% | 13.0 |
| Sammy Watkins | $6,100 | 10.7 | 42.1% | 1.03 | 26.8% | 15.4 |
| Jamison Crowder | $6,300 | 10.5 | 31.8% | 0.70 | 18.2% | 13.9 |
| Alshon Jeffery | $6,500 | 10.1 | 29.7% | 0.59 | 18.5% | 13.8 |
| Tyrell Williams | $6,200 | 10.0 | 35.2% | 0.80 | 20.8% | 14.1 |
| Sterling Shepard | $5,900 | 10.0 | 38.9% | 0.93 | 20.4% | 14.0 |
| Terry McLaurin | $5,800 | 9.8 | 37.5% | 0.86 | 19.1% | 13.8 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,700 | 9.5 | 26.8% | 0.50 | 18.5% | 13.7 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,700 | 9.4 | 35.6% | 0.84 | 13.8% | 13.1 |
| Curtis Samuel | $5,800 | 9.1 | 32.1% | 0.66 | 14.4% | 12.8 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,600 | 8.9 | 34.1% | 0.73 | 13.4% | 12.7 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $5,700 | 8.9 | 30.6% | 0.64 | 12.3% | 12.5 |
| A.J. Brown | $5,300 | 8.9 | 36.5% | 0.80 | 13.8% | 12.6 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $6,400 | 8.8 | 21.8% | 0.39 | 10.9% | 12.3 |
| Darius Slayton | $6,300 | 8.7 | 25.4% | 0.45 | 14.6% | 12.7 |
| Mike Williams | $5,700 | 8.7 | 30.9% | 0.61 | 13.3% | 12.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,600 | 8.6 | 30.2% | 0.61 | 11.5% | 11.9 |
| Chris Conley | $6,000 | 8.1 | 22.8% | 0.41 | 9.4% | 11.7 |
| Diontae Johnson | $5,300 | 8.1 | 31.7% | 0.63 | 9.8% | 11.8 |
| James Washington | $6,200 | 8.1 | 22.3% | 0.39 | 10.5% | 11.9 |
| Robby Anderson | $6,100 | 8.0 | 22.1% | 0.40 | 9.9% | 11.6 |
| Auden Tate | $5,200 | 8.0 | 32.6% | 0.65 | 9.2% | 11.6 |
| Allen Hurns | $5,100 | 7.7 | 32.3% | 0.68 | 6.1% | 11.2 |
| Corey Davis | $5,200 | 7.7 | 30.0% | 0.59 | 8.2% | 11.2 |
| Demaryius Thomas | $5,200 | 7.6 | 28.4% | 0.55 | 7.4% | 10.9 |
| Golden Tate | $6,300 | 7.4 | 6.0% | 0.08 | 1.2% | 9.5 |
| Zach Pascal | $5,400 | 7.3 | 26.0% | 0.46 | 8.2% | 11.0 |
Cash-Game Standouts: DeVante Parker, Christian Kirk, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Boyd, D.J. Moore, D.J. Chark
Tournament Standouts: Christian Kirk, DeVante Parker, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Boyd, Davante Adams, D.J. Moore, Sammy Watkins, D.J. Chark, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
Tight End
Simulation Results
| Player | Salary | FDP | 2x Value % |
Boom/Bust Ratio |
15+ FDP % |
75th Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,100 | 13.9 | 45.6% | 1.32 | 41.6% | 18.5 |
| George Kittle | $7,000 | 12.8 | 45.0% | 1.28 | 39.2% | 17.9 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,900 | 12.2 | 39.8% | 1.02 | 32.5% | 16.0 |
| Hunter Henry | $6,600 | 11.4 | 40.7% | 1.05 | 30.5% | 15.8 |
| Darren Waller | $6,100 | 10.7 | 38.3% | 0.94 | 21.2% | 14.2 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,500 | 10.0 | 33.5% | 0.75 | 22.5% | 14.5 |
| Greg Olsen | $5,100 | 7.8 | 30.1% | 0.64 | 7.4% | 11.0 |
| Jack Doyle | $5,000 | 7.6 | 34.8% | 0.72 | 9.5% | 11.5 |
| Noah Fant | $5,100 | 7.4 | 29.9% | 0.59 | 5.9% | 11.1 |
| Evan Engram | $6,400 | 7.4 | 5.5% | 0.07 | 0.6% | 9.4 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,200 | 7.3 | 27.8% | 0.52 | 6.5% | 10.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,000 | 7.2 | 29.5% | 0.56 | 6.0% | 10.9 |
| Ryan Griffin | $5,600 | 6.8 | 16.3% | 0.26 | 4.7% | 9.8 |
| Gerald Everett | $6,300 | 6.4 | 3.1% | 0.04 | 0.7% | 8.5 |
| Jonnu Smith | $5,300 | 6.1 | 17.6% | 0.26 | 4.0% | 9.2 |
| Vance McDonald | $5,000 | 5.8 | 19.4% | 0.31 | 2.4% | 9.2 |
| Tyler Eifert | $4,700 | 5.6 | 21.8% | 0.36 | 1.9% | 8.9 |
| Jimmy Graham | $5,800 | 5.4 | 8.6% | 0.12 | 2.3% | 8.9 |
| Nick Boyle | $4,800 | 4.7 | 11.4% | 0.16 | 0.4% | 7.4 |
| O.J. Howard | $4,800 | 4.4 | 11.5% | 0.16 | 1.0% | 7.4 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,500 | 4.4 | 8.5% | 0.11 | 1.4% | 7.5 |
| Cameron Brate | $5,000 | 4.3 | 9.5% | 0.12 | 0.5% | 7.3 |
| Kaden Smith | $4,000 | 4.3 | 18.4% | 0.28 | 0.6% | 7.1 |
Cash-Game Standouts: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller
Tournament Standouts: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, Jack Doyle, Mark Andrews, Michael Gesicki, Noah Fant, Greg Olsen
