4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 11
Fantasy value can be defined in so many ways. In season-long leagues, one might determine value by looking at output compared to draft position. In daily leagues, we're often looking at output per $1,000 in salary.
Finding cheap players who can bust out for big games is pivotal to fitting in high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, and it is a key component of tournament-winning lineups.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced at or under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced at or under $5,000, and tight ends priced at or under $4,000.
Some value players jump out and will have wildly high ownership, while others aren't as obvious. To make your decisions easier, we're here to crunch the numbers and do our best to point out those bargains to you.
So, what are we waiting for? Let's go digging for value!
Kyle Allen, QB, Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Price: $5,300
Projected Points: 17.2
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.25
It's frankly hard to understand what happened to the New Orleans Saints in last week's loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons, who have given up the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks and had allowed multiple touchdowns to every quarterback they had faced heading into Week 10, shut Drew Brees out of the end zone and gave up just three field goals to the Saints.
One of the main drivers for the Falcons' success was that the Saints, for some reason, decided to abandon the run. The Falcons were no more than 10 points ahead of the Saints until the fourth quarter (and only four points ahead leading into the final frame), yet Sean Payton decided that he should only rush the ball 11 times (on which the Saints were averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry).
The Carolina Panthers and Christian McCaffrey are not going to run the ball just 11 times. Nope, it would be insane to give the league's leader in rushing yards per game so few carries. They run a more balanced, less predictable, attack than what the Saints offered last week. It has helped Carolina quarterback Kyle Allen throw for multiple scores or 300 yards in three of his past four contests, the lone dud coming against the San Francisco 49ers.
Allen produced at least three-times value in each of those three contests, and we have him projected to do it again in a matchup against the Falcons that, at 49.5 points, has the third-highest game total of the week. Our models have him pegged to return a baseline of 3.25 DraftKings points per $1,000, making him our third-highest projected quarterback value on the slate and highest among quarterbacks with a sub-$6,000 salary.
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings Price: $3,400
Projected Points: 11.1
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.26
San Francisco 49ers running back Matt Breida missed Wednesday's practice and will be out one-to-two weeks with a low ankle sprain. With Breida on the sidelines, Raheem Mostert is in line to get the bulk of the work behind Tevin Coleman.
While the RB2 position on a team isn't always fantasy relevant in a pass-heavy era, the Niners are an exception. Only three teams in the league run more often than they pass the ball, and the Niners lead the way by rushing 53.2% of the time. Not surprisingly, the team's running backs produce the most standard fantasy points per game of any team and rank fourth in PPR leagues.
Five times in nine games this season, the Niners have had two more more running backs finish a game with double-digit fantasy points. They'll have a good chance to do that again this week as they take on an Arizona Cardinals defense that has given up the 10th-most DraftKings points per game to the running back position and just allowed Tampa Bay Buccaneers backs to catch 11 passes and collectively total 41.3 DraftKings points -- the second time in the past three games an opposing backfield has combined for 40 or more DraftKings points.
Our metrics have the Cardinals as the ninth-worst rushing defense in the league, and we project the Niners to take advantage, something they didn't do two weeks ago in Glendale, Arizona, when their game plan was surprisingly more pass-heavy. A run-heavy attack shouldn't be a problem this week if betting lines give us an idea of game script. The Niners are 11-point favorites, despite the loss of Breida and, likely, Emmanuel Sanders, who is a game-time decision due to a rib injury
We project Mostert to end the day with 62.5 yards from scrimmage, 1.6 receptions, and 11.1 DraftKings points, good enough to make him our second-highest projected running back value on the slate.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings Price: $3,000
Projected Points: 7.9
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.63
As just stated, Emmanuel Sanders is a game-time decision against the Cardinals. If he misses time, then rookie Deebo Samuel, coming off an 8-catch, 112-yard performance, will take over the WR1 duties (and likely get coverage from Patrick Peterson), while Kendrick Bourne should step up and take over the WR2 duties. That crying you are hearing is coming from Dante Pettis truthers.
We caught a glimpse of what Bourne can do in the Niners' offense in last week's loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Taking on more responsibility due to Sanders exiting in the first half, Bourne saw a season-high 8 targets, hauling in 4 of those for 42 yards and a score.
Bourne saw just one target in the team's matchup against the Cardinals in Week 9, but the Niners were playing with a healthy Sanders and George Kittle, who missed last week and is likely to miss this week, despite not having been ruled out yet. Kittle and Sanders combined for 13 catches for 191 yards and 2 scores in that game against the Cards, targets that Bourne will be eager to eat into on Sunday.
We currently have Bourne projected to return a value of 2.63 DraftKings points per $1,000. That currently makes him our seventh-best value at the position this week and one that should rise if Sanders is ruled out. If Sanders does end up playing, then pretend this blurb didn't even happen.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
DraftKings Price: $3,600
Projected Points: 7.6
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.12
Rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson went from one of the hottest waiver wire claims after a standout Week 1 performance to a player that's made little sense to roster in any fantasy format, daily or season long. Despite burning those who spent valuable FAAB dollars on him entering Week 2, he's been a consistent part of the Detroit Lions' passing attack for the past month and a half.
Hockenson has caught at least three passes and produced at least 6.1 DraftKings points in five out of his past six games, and he has at least 47 yards receiving in each of his past two contests. Finding the end zone has been one of the things holding him back from being a more reliable option at the position, but he has a chance to rectify that this week against the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has given up the third-most standard and PPR points per game to opposing tight ends over the past five weeks. They've allowed a touchdown to the position in three of their past four games, and an opposing tight end has scored 10 or more DraftKings points against them in each of those four contests.
Our baseline projection of 7.6 DraftKings points for Hockenson is about what we've come to expect from him in the recent past, but we project his upside at 17.2 DraftKings points, which equates to nearly 4.8 DraftKings points per $1,000 and is good enough to warrant using him in some of your tournament lineups this week.
Ian Goldsmith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian Goldsmith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username zoidbergs_revenge. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.