FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 9 Thursday Night
San Fran is a 10.5-point favorite, and a whopping 82% of the money coming in on the spread is on the Niners, per oddsFire. Our models don't line up with the betting public, though, as we see this being a closer game -- a 26.40-20.34 win for the Niners. For DFS, that means being a little heavier on Arizona tonight could be the ideal route to take.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals ($15,000)
As we just mentioned in the intro, the betting public is all over the Niners today despite the spread being a large 10.5 points in favor of San Fran. Our models forecast a closer game, and if the DFS community follows the betting public, using Kyler Murray in your MVP spot could be a great way to go.
Murray is coming off his two worst DFS outputs of the season -- 13.10 points at the Saints and 6.96 points at the Giants -- and that could scare people away in a difficult matchup against a stout 49ers defense.
But Murray's poor fantasy days can at least be partially explained. He saw a very positive game script against the Giants and attempted just 21 passes in The Chase Edmonds Game. At New Orleans last week, Murray played fairly well in a tough matchup, throwing for 295 yards, but he didn't score any touchdowns, though he tossed a dime to Larry Fitzgerald on a play that would usually have resulted in a score.
At home this year, Murray has had a nice floor, posting 22.62, 19.82, 17.34 and 28.8 FanDuel points. Yes, this San Fran D is legit -- second-best both overall and versus the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics -- but Murray's legs raise his floor and ceiling, and our models project him for a slate-best 17.2 FanDuel points.
Tevin Coleman, RB, 49ers ($14,000)
Coming off a monster four-score, 36.8-point day last week and with Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida all various levels of banged up on a short week, Tevin Coleman is shaping up to be the chalk play of the night.
It's always worth considering fading a chalk player on a single-game slate, but Coleman is a scary fade today given the state of the Niners' backfield, the team sitting as a double-digit favorite and how heavily the 49ers have leaned on the run in 2019. Overall, San Fran is the most run-heavy offense in football, running it 58% of the time, per Sharp Football Stats. They've run it 53% of the time in one-score games and 65% of the time when leading by eight or more.
In short, Coleman is likely headed for some big-time volume in this game, and if you're building a lineup with the idea that the Niners win comfortably, not only is he pretty much a must-have, he's a great MVP option. We peg Coleman to score 15.7 FanDuel points and have him as the top-scoring non-quarterback by a wide margin.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers ($13,500)
While George Kittle has a game of 17.8 FanDuel points this season, we still haven't seen a true eruption from him. It might happen tonight.
The Cards have allowed a league-worst 17.7 FanDuel points per game to tight ends, and Kittle has rare big-play ability for the position. He showed that often last year with eight touchdowns and a sparkling 15.6 yards per reception. In 2019, he's got one touchdown and "just" 11.6 yards per catch.
But he should have some positive touchdown regression heading his way as he's gone for 40 catches and 462 yards through seven games. His usage is still pretty darn great as he's first among all tight ends in air yards share (29%), per AirYards.com, and is tied for first in target share (26%).
At some point, a monster game is coming for Kittle.
Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals ($11,500)
Christian Kirk has been Arizona's top receiver when he's been healthy. He paces the team in air yards share (28%) and target share (24%). In his return from injury last week, Kirk accounted for 32% of the targets and 42% of the air yards.
We have Kirk projected for a slate-high 8.8 targets, and while he's a risky MVP play in a tough matchup -- though he's sure to be a contrarian pick in that spot -- he's firmly in play for a utility position.
Robbie Gould, K, 49ers ($9,500)
In a game with a lowly 43.0-point total, kickers aren't a bad option, especially since this will be played indoors. Of the two, Robbie Gould looks a better play than Zane Gonzalez ($9,000) does due to the Niners being expected to score more points. Although Gould has made just 13-of-20 field goal tries this year, he is 11-for-13 from inside 40 yards and is 22-for-22 on extra points.
Gould's FanDuel game log reads: nine, nine, eight and eight points across his last four. He should have a nice floor, and as Dan Bailey showed us last Thursday, kickers can be key pieces on single-game slates.
Jeff Wilson, RB, 49ers ($5,000)
As of Thursday afternoon, it would appear that Wilson has the best shot of suiting up between him, Breida and Mostert. Wilson exited early with a stinger this past Sunday, so he might not be at full strength, but if he dresses and both Breida and Mostert sit, Wilson has some appeal as a dart throw.
The Niners are forecasted to see a positive game script, and as we laid out above, they enjoy running the ball. If they get up big, Wilson could see some run against an Arizona defense that is seventh-worst versus the rush and third-worst overall, per our metrics.
Obviously, check the inactive list before using Wilson, because if either Breida or Mostert play, Wilson's outlook would take a hit.