4 DraftKings Studs to Target in Week 9
Week 9 of the NFL season is here, so let's see which high-priced studs stand out on DraftKings and project to be high-end performers according to our models.
DraftKings Price: $6,100
Projected Points: 18.9
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have all but given up on the run game the last two weeks, games in both they were trailing by double digits in the first quarter. In those games, they threw 73.5% of the time, and Jameis Winston put up 26.3 and 21.1 DraftKings points. Now this week, Tampa finds themselves in another game they project to throw a ton as a 6 underdog. In the five games that Winston has more than 35 passing attempts this season, he has hit the 300-yard passing bonus in four of them and has averaged 24.1 DraftKings points.
The Seattle Seahawks continue to carry the stigma of owning a good defense, but the days of the Legion of Boom are long gone. Using play by play data, Seattle ranks 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points per play, and not to mention but 38-year-old Matt Schaub just carved them up for 460 passing yards. Seattle has given up 22 completions on throws 16 or more air yards, while Winston has attempted 7.7 per game. If this game shoots out like Vegas is projecting, Winston can push for the top spot this week.
DraftKings Price: $10,000
Projected Points: 25.2
Just keep ignoring the price and plug this guy right into your lineups. Christian McCaffrey is an absolute cheat code for DraftKings scoring. He is averaging 31.5 DraftKings points, scoring 21 or more points in six of the seven games played. His receiving volume is what separates him from everyone else, he owns a 19.8% target share, which is a higher clip than many teams WR2. When we add that to 20 rush attempts per game, the floor is immensely high, but the ceiling seems to be uncapped.
The Carolina Panthers looks to bounce back this week against the Tennessee Titans as a 3.5 home favorite. Matchups don’t matter for McCaffrey as evidenced by last weeks 30.5 points he put up against San Fran, so while Tennessee looks tough on paper, they have given up big production to running backs in the passing game. They have allowed opposing running backs to average 6.5 receptions for 50.8 receiving yards per game, and since McCaffrey plays pretty much all snaps (93.6%) this bodes well for his outlook. Amongst all running backs with at least 16 targets, McCaffrey ranks fifth in Reception NEP per target. Fire up McCaffrey as the top running back play of the week.
DraftKings Price: $7,300
Projected Points: 16.7
The Buccaneers passing attack is a two-man show, and Chris Godwin leads all NFL receivers in our Net Expected Points Metric. Godwin owns a 24% target share and an 11.4 aDOT which is amongst the highest number of any slot receiver. When Mike Evans went off against the New York Giants for 48 DraftKings Points, Godwin came back the following week and went for 44.2 DraftKings points. Now after a 45.8 performance by Evans last week, Godwin looks to right the ship against Seattle this week.
The Bucs and Seahawks own the high total of the week, and both teams rank within the top ten in plays per game. Seattle has been very giving through the air and has given up some solid lines to opposing teams slot receivers including 29.7 DraftKings points to Cooper Kupp. Godwin has a good chance at racking up targets as the focal point in a passing attack expected to throw a ton, our projections have him seeing 9.6 targets. Godwin has been a top-five scoring wide receiver in three different weeks this season, and our projections like him to be right up there again this week.
DraftKings Price: $6,000
Projected Points: 13.7
Tight end continues to be the hardest position to project, but since Hunter Henry has returned from injury, he has been playing nearly an every-down role, including playing on 90% of the Los Angeles Chargers offensive snaps over the last two weeks. He has played in four games this season and has caught four or more balls in every game while seeing a 19.3% target share.
The Chargers are slight underdogs this week against the Green Bay Packers, which should increase the passing volume for Philip Rivers, which should benefit Henry against the Green Bay defense that has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends this season. Our projections have him competing for that top spot amongst all tight ends this week.
Adam Nessel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Nessel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ANessel01. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.