4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 8
Fantasy value can be defined in so many ways. In season-long leagues, one might determine value by looking at output compared to draft position. In daily leagues, we're often looking at output per $1,000 in salary.
Finding cheap players who can bust out for big games is pivotal to fitting in high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, and it is a key component of tournament-winning lineups.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced at or under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced at or under $5,000, and tight ends priced at or under $4,000.
Some value players jump out and will have wildly high ownership, while others aren't as obvious. To make your decisions easier, we're here to crunch the numbers and do our best to point out those bargains to you.
So, what are we waiting for? Let's go digging for value!
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
DraftKings Price: $5,100
Projected Points: 16.5
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.24
When he replaced Marcus Mariota midway through a loss to the Denver Broncos two weeks ago, it wasn't certain that Ryan Tannehill would take over the quarterback reins for the Tennessee Titans full time. However, after a strong Week 7 performance that led to a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, the position is his to lose.
Tannehill completed 23-of-29 passes for 312 yards and a pair of scores in the 23-20 win, and another strong performance could be in the cards this week when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to town. Coming off a bye week, the Bucs are probably hoping to shore up their poor pass defense.
The team has given up at least 31 points in five of their six games so far, and most of the damage has come through the air. Since a surprising and rain-drenched 20-14 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 2, the Bucs have allowed three 300-yard passers and 10 touchdowns in four games. The team is giving up the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks this season
The Titans aren't a team that screams offense; their 17.3 points per game ranks just 27th in the league. Yet this week's game has a decent total of 45.5 points, and the big money is betting on seeing more than that. While only 42% of bettors are betting the over in the game, 67% of the money is being bet on it.
The sharks are looking at this game, and Tannehill is primed to be a big part of it. We currently project him for a baseline value of 3.24 DraftKings points per $1,000 with upside for 6.16.
Ty Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions
DraftKings Price: $4,900
Projected Points: 13.7
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.80
Am I bitter about being outbid for Ty Johnson after trying to spend $88 of my $100 FAAB on him this week? Nooooooo, not this guy who's running backs are a heap of picked-clean carcasses. *Sigh*
While he may not be an RB1 over the rest of the season, it's not very often that a starting running back comes along midway through a season, and Johnson has several very exploitable matchups, starting this week with the New York Giants.
The Giants, who are giving up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season, have devolved into what looks more like a turnstile rather than a professional defense. Over the past three weeks, they've given up 444 yards and 22 receptions for an additional 204 yards; opposing backfield corps have scored at least 38.30 points in each of those three contests.
He may not repeat Chase Edmonds' heroics from last week, but he'll clearly have the opportunity to do a lot of damage, especially for a Detroit Lions team who has focused more heavily on the run this season than any in recent memory. He should easily see at least 10-15 carries and a few targets this week.
Many think J.D. McKissic will get the bulk of the passing work, but it was Johnson who led Lions back last week in targets and receptions, not the former Seahawk. We'll see how it plays out Sunday, but for now, you can look to our models for guidance, which project Johnson to score a baseline of 13.7 DraftKings points with upside for 28.0.
DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Denver Broncos
DraftKings Price: $3,300
Projected Points: 9.8
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.98
Denver Broncos wide receiver DaeSean Hamilton hasn't been one of Joe Flacco's most targeted options in the passing game so far this season, but that could change as soon as this week when the Mile High club flys to the Midwest to take on the Indianapolis Colts.
GM John Elway basically guaranteed that the second-year player out of Penn State would see more looks this week when he decided to trade Emmanuel Sanders to the San Francisco 49ers for a couple of magic beans and a promise of a fantasy land up in the clouds full of giant Super Bowl dreams. Man, John Lynch is good, isn't he?
There is little reason to think that Hamilton doesn't at least take on a couple of Sanders' weekly looks; projecting him for at least six or seven targets per week is a pretty safe bet, especially considering that Hamilton has seen at least five looks in three of his five games.
The Colts have done little to prove that they can handle opposing wideouts this season. Over their past four games, nine different receivers scored in double-figure PPR points against them, which included a 100-yard performance from everybody's favorite snack king, Byron Pringle.
It's a solid situation for Hamilton to be in when he takes the field as the Broncos' WR2, and our models have him taking advantage of it, for his price point, at least. Only $3,300 on DraftKings, we project Hamilton for 9.8 points and an upside of 19.9. He's our top-projected DraftKings wide receiver value of the week.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans
DraftKings Price: $2,800
Projected Points: 5.2
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 1.87
Delanie Walker left the Titans' Week 7 win with an ankle injury, and it could be enough to keep him out of the team's game against the Bucs this week. If Walker does happen to miss this week's game, Jonnu Smith will be the go-to tight end option for Tannehill, and the matchup could not be much better for him to have a chance to return solid value.
While the Arizona Cardinals are far and away the worst team in the league against opposing tight ends this season, the Bucs' 19.12 DraftKings points allowed to the position is a clear second place, 3.42 points more than the third-worst Pittsburgh Steelers.
Tampa has allowed 41 receptions to tight ends in just six games, putting them on pace to allow 109.3 receptions, easily eclipsing the Colts, who allowed a league-worst 103 receptions to the position last year.
Smith doesn't often have fantasy-worthy performances, but when he does, it's usually when Walker doesn't play. He's scored double-figure DraftKings points in four of the past six games he's played without Walker. With Walker's status uncertain for this week, we have Smith currently projected for just 5.2 DraftKings points. If Walker is out, however, expect that number to rise and for Smith to have the potential to be a solid punt play at a position where that is often difficult to find.
Ian Goldsmith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian Goldsmith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username zoidbergs_revenge. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.