FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4 Thursday Night
The public loves Green Bay tonight. Per oddsFire, 71% of the bets on the spread and 56% of the money on the spread is coming in on Green Bay. Despite that, our models see Philly covering as we have the score being 25.49-23.75 in favor of the Pack. That is good info to have in mind when you're building lineups tonight.
As for the total, the over/under is 46.0, and our models have the over hitting by a touch more than a field goal. Bettors agree as 78% of the money being wagered on the total is on the over, according to oddsFire. We should see plenty of points.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Davante Adams, WR, Packers ($14,000)
Davante Adams could go off tonight.
The Eagles' defense has been getting shredded through the air, allowing 39.6 FanDuel points per game to wideouts through three weeks, the third-most in the league. Terry McLaurin roasted Philly for 125 yards and a tud in Week 1, followed by Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones each going for at least 100 yards and a score in Week 2, with Jones finding the end zone twice. In Week 3, Marvin Jones had 101 yards and a touchdown on the Eagles.
So, yeah, this is a get-right spot for the Green Bay passing game.
Our models have Adams projected for 15.4 FanDuel points, 3.2 more than any other non-quarterback. The only worry here is ownership as Adams will likely be a chalk play today, meaning you have to think about fading him.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers ($15,000)
Pretty much everything we just talked about with Adams makes this a great spot for Aaron Rodgers, too. Philly is allowing the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to passers, and if Rodgers struggles here, then it's really time to worry about his slow start.
Our models don't see that happening, though, as we project him for a slate-high 19.5 FanDuel points. Rodgers offers a huge ceiling and could smash this porous Eagles D tonight.
Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles ($14,500)
As we talked about in the intro, the public is all over Green Bay in this one.
When it comes to wagers on the spread (remember: Green Bay is a 4.0-point favorite), 71% of the bets are on the Packers covering. But just 56% of the money coming in is on Green Bay to cover, which tells us the big dogs are leaning toward Philly more than the general public is. If the masses are on Green Bay tonight, then the contrarian route to take is to build a lineup under the assumption the Eagles win.
Look, there's not a whole lot we can point to that makes this a good spot for the Eagles' passing game. Green Bay is allowing the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, the fewest to tight ends and the third-fewest to wideouts.
This Green Bay D is looking all sorts of legit. But the Packers have also taken advantage of a favorable schedule as they've faced Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Not exactly a murderers' row.
Carson Wentz will be the best quarterback the Packers' defense has faced, and he won't be a super popular MVP choice. We project him for 17.6 FanDuel points.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers ($11,000)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has some fantastic usage numbers this season. He's tied with Adams for the team lead in target share, sitting at 23%, per airyards.com. MVS paces the Packers in both air yards share (30%) and average depth of target (12.0) among those with at least five targets.
You could use MVS tonight and fade Adams, or you could stack both of them with Rodgers. Either way, his stellar volume makes him a very appealing play.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles ($10,000)
While Wentz is going to be popular on this single-game slate, Miles Sanders probably won't be with the masses expecting the Eagles to lose by more than four points. Those building with the idea that Green Bay wins by that many may opt for cheap pass-game wizard Darren Sproles ($6,000) rather than Sanders or Jordan Howard ($9,000).
But Sanders does enough on the ground and in the air to be a factor regardless of how the game plays out.
He's seen carry counts of 11, 10 and 13 through three games while getting target totals of two, four and four. Sanders has a bigger target share (8%) than Sproles (6%) does, and he leads all Philadelphia players in yards after the catch this season (79), giving him some big-play juice, which is always valuable on single-game slates.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles ($5,000)
When you're dipping down this low, a goose egg is usually in play, and that's no different with Dallas Goedert, who did just that last week while playing only nine snaps despite Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson sitting out, though he was a game-time call in Week 3, which may explain the low snap count.
This is purely a dart throw in the truest sense, and the realistic best-case scenario is him finding paydirt. Goedert's salary frees you up to do almost anything you want with your other four spots, and if you think the Packers win comfortably, then he could play more snaps than usual with Philly in pass-heavy mode. He played 55% of the snaps in Week 1, per Football Outsiders, a game in which the Eagles fell into an early hole.