NFL Week 12 Analysis: The Niners' Nine-Minute Drive

The Saints still had a chance late, but the Niners' long, late drive shut the door. Chief Analyst Keith Goldner explains how. Chief Analyst Keith Goldner occasionally takes a look at some of the big NFL decisions of the week and the advanced numbers behind them. Today, he looks at how Colin Kaepernick and the Niners offense was able to close the door against the Saints in the fourth quarter.

Up 28-21 with the ball nearing the end of the third quarter, the Niners had a 78% of winning the game over the streaking Saints. That 78% does not account for the prolific Saints offense, though. What followed was a nine-and-a-half minute drive, lasting deep into the fourth quarter, draining precious time that Drew Brees would need in order to make a comeback. Any Saints fan -- or someone whose fantasy team depends on the Saints offense like myself -- could not have been more frustrated watching the Niners rumble down the field over the course of 17 plays and 85 yards.

I decided to take a look at the evolution of the drive using our Markov model.

Want to know how the drive breaks down and more? Check out Keith's full analysis at