NFL

3 NFL Prop Bets to Target in Week 17

Matthew Gajewski  —  @Matt_Gajewski Dec 29th, 2018
Kansas City has a lot to play for in Week 17, and they have a sublime matchup with Oakland. Which Chiefs player prop bets should you zero in on?

With seasonal leagues in the books, fantasy enthusiasts can stay involved in the NFL action through the FanDuel SportsBook. FanDuel provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.

Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, allowing people to stay involved in a familiar way. With playoff implications in a slew of games this weekend, here are a few standout player props.

Patrick Mahomes Over 280.5 Passing Yards -108

While Patrick Mahomes has slumped recently, he finds himself in a must-win game against a beatable Oakland Raiders defense. Looking like a solid bounce-back candidate, a $100 bet on Mahomes eclipsing 280.5 passing yards nets $92.59.

Despite falling short of 300 passing yards in his last two games, Mahomas has bested that mark 10 times already this season. Ranking second in overall passing yards (4,816), Mahomes should find room to work against a porous Oakland secondary. According to our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Raiders rank 30th in pass defense.

Also working strong in Mahomes' favor, bookmakers project Kansas City to score more than any other team this week, giving them a 33.50-point implied team total. This indicates that Mahomes should have no trouble moving the ball, and our models agree, projecting him for 300.13 passing yards.

With just under 20 yards of value when compared against our projections, Mahomes' passing yardage player prop looks like a solid value this weekend.

Robert Woods Over 75.5 Receiving Yards -108

Establishing himself as Jared Goff's favorite receiver, Robert Woods looks like a solid bet to pass 75.5 receiving yards in Week 17. With the Rams needing a win to secure a bye, a $100 bet on Woods in this spot nets $92.59.

Since Cooper Kupp suffered his season-ending ACL tear, Woods has easily led the Rams with 49 targets, 363 receiving yards, and 526 air yards. Woods also finds himself in a soft matchup against a San Francisco 49ers' secondary that ranks 28th in pass defense, per our metrics. To further improve matters, San Francisco ranks ninth against the run, creating a natural pass funnel for Los Angeles' offense.

Implied to score the third-most points this week (29.75), Woods and the Rams' offense as a while should be able to move the ball. Our projections agree with this notion, pegging Woods for 97.46 receiving yards.

With almost 22 full yards of value on his receiving yardage player prop, Woods should be targeted heavily this weekend on FanDuel's Sportsbook.

Tyreek Hill Over 70.5 Receiving Yards -108

With two straight games below 75 yards receiving, Tyreek Hill's receiving play prop has plummeted down to 70.5. Pairing nicely with Mahomes in this bounce-back spot against the Raiders, a $100 bet on Hill besting 70.5 receiving yards nets $92.59.

While it hasn't always led to notable box-score results, Hill has seen healthy volume of late, averaging 10 targets per game in his last three contest. Hill now takes this volume against Oakland's sieve-like secondary, which ranks 30th in pass defense, per our metrics.

Similar to Mahomes, our projections like Hill quite a bit more than bookmakers do. Our models have Hill slated for 103.26 receiving yards, more than 30 yards above his listed receiving player prop. This discrepancy makes Hill the biggest value of the weekend, and his player prop should be strongly considered in this key divisional game.