DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11
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This week's 10-game main slate won't have DFS staples like Todd Gurley or Patrick Mahomes, but has plenty of interesting matchups and value plays to build strong lineups despite missing some of those marquee names. There are currently four games with an over/under of 49 points or higher as well as several more games that have the potential to shootout into high scoring affairs.
Deshaun Watson ($5,700): Over the first five games of the season, Deshaun Watson averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game while adding an additional 6.8 rush attempts on the ground. However, Watson was sacked a total of 18 times during that span and suffered a chest injury in Week 5 that caused the team to transport him to games on a bus rather than by plane due to concerns over a collapsed lung. Now over his last four games, Watson averaged fewer than 24 pass attempts per game and just four rush attempts per contest. Watson was sacked seven times in Week 6, but only a total of five times since. In Week 9, Watson registered half a dozen carries for 38 yards, his highest rushing output since the injury. Now coming off a bye week, Watson is presumably fully healthy and ready to take on a Washington defense that has allowed an average of 357.3 passing yards over the last three weeks. Even though this game has one of the lower over/under's on the main slate, Houston is a slight road favorite. All things considered, Watson looks underpriced given health and situation.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500): Over his last three games, Marcus Mariota has completed nearly 72 percent of his passes while throwing for five touchdowns and just one interception. On the ground, he's added 91 yards on 19 attempts with another touchdown. Those aren't mind-blowing numbers, but quite an improvement given the mere two passing touchdowns Mariota mustered in is first five games. Now the Tennessee Titans head to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts as slight underdogs in a game with the fourth-highest over/under on the main slate. Indianapolis is 24th in passing yards allowed per game after conceding 320 yards to Blake Bortles a week ago. In their first meeting last year, Mariota completed 23 of 32 passes for 306 yards against the Colts, which matched a season-high. Now clearly over the nerve damage in his elbow that lead to the early-season struggles, Maroita is shaping up to be a terrific value in what could turn into a divisional shootout.
Eli Manning ($5,200): The cheapest quarterback on the board to consider using this week is Eli Manning, even though he's looked close to washed at various times throughout the season. Manning happens to be coming off a season-high three touchdown performance and nearly threw for 400 yards back in Week 7. Now he'll face the woeful Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a slight home favorite in a game with the week's second-highest over/under. Even though they've already had their bye, Tampa Bay has allowed a league-high 23 passing touchdowns while only managing a single interception. With numbers that bad, it's no surprise to see Tampa Bay as the third-worst pass defense by our metrics. Over at Sharp Football Stats, the Bucs allow the sixth-highest passing success rate and third-highest explosive pass rate. Manning is an uncomfortable start, for sure, but has the weapons at his disposal to successfully navigate this extremely soft matchup.
Alvin Kamara ($8,200): There are a number of strong running back options to consider paying up for in Week 11. Alvin Kamara is fourth in running back salary despite checking a lot of boxes. He's at home as a large favorite in a game that has easily the highest over/under on the main slate. While the opposing Philadelphia Eagles have very good raw numbers against running backs this season, they are allowing 4.7 yards per carry, among the 10 highest in the league. In fact, our metrics have the Eagles as the 11th-worst rush defense in the league. In terms of receiving production to running backs -- which is vital to Kamara's performance most weeks -- Philadelphia allows the sixth-most receptions. Kamara has scored multiple touchdowns in three consecutive games yet could go overlooked if DFS managers aren't looking deep enough into the Eagles underling numbers against running backs. If so, tournaments are the perfect spot to leverage Kamara at reduced ownership. Melvin Gordon ($8,900) has put big performances all year and Saquon Barkley ($8,700) draws a dream matchup against Tampa Bay. There's also Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500), who's coming off his best game of the season. Our projections have Kamara near the very top of the position this week, so the reduced price tag makes him one of the top points per dollar values at running back.
David Johnson ($7,500): After piling up 98 rushing yards and 85 receiving yards on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, it certainly looks like David Johnson is back. Thankfully, he draws another terrific matchup from the AFC West to keep the good times rolling as the Arizona Cardinals head back home to face the Oakland Raiders. They were pulverized by Melvin Gordon, who put up a similar Week 10 stat line to Johnson: 93 yards rushing, 72 receiving. In addition to being a bottom-five run defense by our metrics, Oakland is giving up explosive runs more frequently than anyone and are among the league leaders in rushing yards allowed per game. The bye week seems to have helped newly-installed offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich get Johnson back into the situations that made him successful in the past and should lead to a big spike in ownership given this outstanding matchup.
Dion Lewis ($4,800): Even though Dion Lewis was a very popular play in Week 10 and saw a season-high 20 carries, his price barely moved despite a tempting road matchup against the Colts. Indy's run defense is middle of the pack both by our metrics and in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Based on the game charting done by PlayerProfiler, Lewis is seventh in evaded tackles, ninth in juke rate, and 11th in yards created. Lewis has distanced himself from Derrick Henry to the point in which he's now 11th among running backs in snap share. Although last week saw Henry poach two scoring opportunities that left Lewis with single-digit DraftKings points, it was a lack of receiving work that really hurt as the Titans handled the New England Patriots with a stunning degree of ease. On the season, the Colts allow the third-most targets and receiving yards to opposing running backs, which should help to rebuild Lewis' floor.
Odell Beckham ($8,400): Our projections have Odell Beckham as the week's top wide receiver play as he faces a Tampa Bay pass defense that has allowed a league-high 15 touchdowns to the position. The Giants are slight home favorites and carry the second-highest implied team total on the main slate. Beckham is averaging more than 11 targets per game and is currently third league-wide in airyard.com's WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating). Since Week 5, Beckham has exceed 23 DraftKings points in four of five contests. During that span Beckham has surpassed 130 receiving yards on three occasions while scoring all four of his touchdowns. On the season, seven different wide receivers have topped 75 receiving yards against Tampa Bay, while five broke 100 yards. Beckham has hit his ceiling numerous times in recent weeks and is in a great spot to do it again.
Kenny Golladay ($5,800): Expect Kenny Golladay to be among the highest-owned wide receivers in Week 11. Teammate Marvin Jones (knee) did not practice all week and is highly unlikely to play. Golladay is coming off a season-high 13 targets for 78 yards and scored his fourth touchdown of 2018 in what is easily his best output since Week 5. The opposing Carolina Panthers are decent terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. However, the underlying numbers show that they are very much exploitable. Carolina is a bottom-10 pass defense by our schedule-adjusted metrics after both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown reached 90 yards in a Thursday-night blowout. Additionally, the Panthers allow the eighth-highest passing success rate and 13th-highest in explosive passing rate allowed on Sharp Football Stats. Without Jones, Golladay's primary competition for targets will likely be receiving back Theo Riddick, who will be operating in different portions of the field anyway.
Corey Davis ($5,600): Those that focus on things like target share and weighed opportunity have been waiting for this Corey Davis to reappear. Last week, while drawing coverage from of the top cornerbacks in the league, Davis caught seven of 10 passes for 125 yards and a touchdowns in an impressive 34-10 victory at home over the Patriots. In recent games the opposing Colts have seen far lesser receivers such as Donte Moncrief, Kelvin Benjamin, and Jermaine Kearse hang some crooked numbers against them in the box score. As mentioned in the quarterbacks section, Marcus Mariota is playing well now that he's healthy, and this divisional game at Indy has all the makings of a shootout. Pairing the aforementioned Golladay with Davis in cash games gives DFS players a pair of sub-$6,000 receivers that could each easily exceed double-digit targets.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($2,900): If you aren't paying up for Zach Ertz ($6,600), there's probably no reason to spend more than $3,000 at the tight end position, aside from stacking a more expensive one into a tournament lineup. One of those options is Ricky Seals-Jones, who's sixth among tight ends in air yards and is third in average depth of target (aDOT). Last week, Seals-Jones saw a season-high nine targets and exceed 50 yards for the third time this year. On the season, the Raiders have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends on just 38 receptions. Half of those came in one game against the Colts. By no means is Seals-Jones a safe option, but he's extremely cheap and could see a couple of big play opportunities as the Cardinals offense continues to approve against one of the league's worst defenses.
Jonnu Smith ($2,700): One of many intriguing tight ends that have entered the league in recent years, Jonnu Smith is a 92nd percentile SPARQ-x score athlete on PlayerProfiler, where he also owns a 92nd percentile college dominator rating and a 100th percentile breakout age thanks to high-level collegiate production that began in his freshman season. Delanie Walker was lost for the year in the season opener, yet Smith hasn't really appeared on the radar until scoring a touchdown in each of the last two games. During that time Smith has only been targeted five times, but caught them all for a combined 78 yards. Four different tight ends have exceeded 70 yards against the Colts this season. While it's unlikely Smith will see enough targets to have a chance at hitting that figure, he's in a good spot to remain efficient.
Arizona D/ST ($3,100): Over their last five games, the Arizona defense has recorded four or more sacks on four occasions. Meanwhile, Derek Carr has been sacked 11 times over the last two games and has now been sacked six or more times twice during the last four games. Carr was not intercepted during that span, but also didn't throw a touchdown in three of those games. Arizona is a five-point home favorite against a dreadful Raiders offense that has scored 10 points or fewer in five of their last six games. Clearly, the Cardinals have the floor, the ceiling, and the right price tag to work in all formats.
Houston D/ST ($2,600): If you need to pay down at defense, the best answer under $3,000 could be the Texans. They are on the road, but are three-point favorites against a Washington team that has scored in the teens over the last two weeks against the most generous defenses in the league, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Alex Smith doesn't throw many interceptions, but doesn't produce many splash plays either. Behind an offensive line loaded with injuries, Smith has been sacked three times in six different games this season.
Eric McClung is not a FanDuel employee. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.