Week 11 NFL FanDuel Late Afternoon Slate Breakdown
The Week 11 late afternoon slate on FanDuel (4:05pm ET) once again features three games with one standing above the rest in its prospects to be a barnburner.
Following their Week 10 loss against the Dallas Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles head south to take on the New Orleans Saints in a game with the highest over/under (56.0) on the slate. The Eagles are 8.0-point underdogs in this matchup, but should have a decent chance of putting up points against a Saints defense that ranks as the league's 10th-worst, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Players in this game will be among the highest owned on the slate and rightfully so.
|Matchup (Implied Team Total)||Game Total|
|Philadelphia Eagles (24.00) at New Orleans Saints (32.00)||56.0|
|Denver Broncos (19.75) at Los Angeles Chargers (26.75)||46.5|
|Oakland Raiders (18.00) at Arizona Cardinals (23.00)||41.0|
Elsewhere, the Denver Broncos return from their bye week to take on a Los Angeles Chargers team that has won six straight. This will be the first matchup between these two division rivals as the Broncos look to end a two-game losing streak. To wrap up the slate, the lowly Oakland Raiders are on the road to play the Arizona Cardinals in the game with the lowest over/under (41) in all of Week 11.
Among the tournaments on FanDuel this week is the $300,000 NFL Rush, which costs $9.99 to enter and pays out $100,000 to first. The $35,000 NFL Bomb costs $33 to play and pays out $6,000 to first, while the single-entry $30,000 NFL Spike has a $5 entry fee and pays out $3,000 to first.
Now, let's break down the top plays and fades at each position.
Lock: Drew Brees ($8,500) - As has been the case in years past, Brees has posted higher fantasy scores at home this season than he has on the road. Brees is averaging 26.96 FanDuel points at home compared to 19.72 on the road through 10 weeks. Overall, the Saints are averaging 37.25 points per game at the Superdome this season and have a 32.00-point implied team total against the Eagles, the highest team on the slate. Brees' matchup is enhanced after the Eagles lost top cornerback Ronald Darby for the season last week with a torn ACL.
Fade: Derek Carr ($6,600) - The Raiders continue to be a team to avoid as their offense has been held to 10 or fewer points in four of their past five games. With Jordy Nelson missing practice time this week, the starting receivers on Sunday may end up being Brandon LaFell and Seth Roberts. That's not exactly an exciting duo, especially with Patrick Peterson on the other side of the field. While the Cardinals are just 2-7 on the year, their defense has been pretty good, ranking top-five, according to numberFire's metrics. The Cardinals have also posted the sixth-most sacks (29) in the league, which isn't good news for Carr as he's taken the seventh-most sacks (29) among all quarterbacks this season.
Sleeper: Josh Rosen ($6,500) - Rosen is the cheapest starter on the slate, $2,000 cheaper than Brees, and he has an opportunity to post one of his best games of the year against a Raiders pass defense that ranks as the league's worst. The last four quarterbacks to face the Raiders have combined to throw for 11 touchdowns while opposing offenses are averaging 30.75 points per game over the past four. Rosen has taken a lot of sacks in his six starts -- more than three per game -- but the Raiders have notched a league-low eight sacks, so Rosen shouldn't be under pressure often on Sunday.
Lock: Alvin Kamara ($8,900) - Kamara is always one of the top plays to consider due to his role in both the running and passing games for the Saints. His 23.36% target share ranks as the best among all running backs and Mark Ingram's return hasn't hindered Kamara's red zone rushing role. Over the past four games, Kamara has 11 carries inside the red zone, compared to just 4 for Ingram. Of those 11 red zone carries, Kamara has scored 5 touchdowns. With the Saints playing at home and carrying the highest implied team total on the slate, Kamara is one of the top plays on the board.
Fade: Phillip Lindsay ($6,400) - Lindsay produced some quality fantasy games over the past month, but they came with Royce Freeman sidelined. After a two-week absence, Freeman is expected to return this week, dropping Lindsay back into a three-way timeshare with Freeman and Devontae Booker. Lindsay should still see the most touches among the three, but in the two games with Freeman sidelined Lindsay had 20 and 19 touches, respectively, the two highest marks of the season for the rookie back. The Chargers run defense ranks 20th, per numberFire metrics, but they have only allowed three rushing touchdowns on the season, second-fewest in the league.
Sleeper: Jalen Richard ($5,300) - With Marshawn Lynch sidelined the past three games, Doug Martin has led the Raiders backfield, averaging 15 touches per game, but Richard has remained involved, averaging 8 touches per game himself. Where Richard distances himself from Martin is in the passing game. Over the past three weeks, Richard has been targeted 18 times by David Carr, compared to 7 for Martin. On the season, Richard is second on the team in targets, trailing only Jared Cook (59-55). With the Raiders being 5.0-point underdogs, this sets up as another game where Richard should be heavily targeted out of the backfield.
Lock: Michael Thomas ($8,800) - There's no surprise here, as all of the Saints are intriguing options in what should be the highest scoring game on the slate. Thomas is coming off two of his best games of the season, catching 20 of 23 targets for 281 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past two weeks. The Eagles have given up the seventh-most points to opposing wide receivers and, as mentioned above with Brees, Philadelphia will be without Ronald Darby for the rest of the season. Thomas has been an elite red zone option this season, ranking third in red zone targets (19) among all receivers. He's caught 16 of those 19 passes for 6 touchdowns.
Fade: Golden Tate ($6,600) - Even though the Eagles traded a third-round pick to land Tate, the former Lion barely saw the field in his Eagles' debut last week. Tate played just 29% of the snaps against the Cowboys, fewer than even Jordan Matthews (60%). Even with Carson Wentz having 44 pass attempts -- his second-most on the season -- against the Cowboys, Tate saw only 4 targets and caught 2 for 19 yards. In a potential shootout, all the pieces in this game are intriguing, but it's still unclear how Tate fits into the Eagles' plans moving forward.
Sleeper: Tre'Quan Smith ($4,900) - With the Saints playing at home, you're going to want exposure to this explosive offense and Smith is one of the cheapest options. He's been quiet since his Week 5 blow-up game against Washington, but since that game, Smith has played no fewer than 68% of the team's snaps per week, second only to Michael Thomas. Although he wasn't targeted in last week's win, he had seen at least three targets in each of the four prior games. With the Eagles down a few starters in the secondary, Smith could pop for another big game in the Superdome.
Lock: Zach Ertz ($7,600) - Whenever there is an elite option at tight end, there's the dilemma of whether to punt the position or pay up and look for savings elsewhere. In the case of Ertz, he's been incredibly consistent throughout the year. He leads all tight ends in targets (100), receptions (75), and yards (789). Remarkably, he's seen fewer than 10 targets in just two of nine games. The matchup isn't a slam dunk for Ertz, though, as the Saints have allowed only one touchdown to opposing tight ends on the season. But with Ertz locked in as the Eagles top pass-catching option in what we expect to be a high-scoring game, paying up for tight end is a way to differentiate your lineup.
Fade: Antonio Gates ($4,500) and Virgil Green ($4,300) - The Chargers are one of the best offensive teams in the league, but they've largely ignored their tight ends this season. Gates and Green have combined for just 2 touchdowns on the season and only Green has posted a game with 50 or more receiving yards (Week 2, 55 yards). Gates does have five red zone targets, but he's only caught one, which was of course, his lone touchdown of the season. Green has played 70% of the snaps this season, while Gates has been on the field for 31.5%.
Sleeper: Ricky Seals-Jones ($5,200) - Against the Chiefs in Week 10, Seals-Jones saw a season-high 9 targets, catching 5 passes (also a season high) for 51 yards. Over the past two weeks with Byron Leftwich at offensive coordinator, Seals-Jones has seen 13 targets, tied for the second-most on the team, trailing only Larry Fitzgerald (22). Now in Week 11, he'll face a Raiders defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Tight ends have scored six touchdowns against the Raiders this season, third-most in the league.
Blair Ames is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Blair Ames also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Bames31. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.