Week 7 NFL FanDuel Late Afternoon Slate Breakdown
Following a pretty dull Week 6 late afternoon slate of games, Week 7 offers a trio of matchups that offer a lot of fantasy potential and some critical real-life implications in the standings.
The Los Angeles Rams and their high-powered offense are once again on the slate as they face off with C.J. Beathard and the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins face off in a division tilt to determine the leader of the NFC East. Rounding out the slate, the New Orleans Saints are coming off a bye and travel north to take on the Baltimore Ravens who own numberFire's top-ranked defense.
|Matchup (Implied Team Total)||Game Total|
|Los Angeles Rams (31.25) at San Francisco 49ers (21.25)||52.5|
|New Orleans Saints (23.75) at Baltimore Ravens (26.25)||50.0|
|Dallas Cowboys (20.25) at Washington Redskins (21.75)||42.0|
As always, the Rams' matchup offers us a lot of game stack possibilities, while the Ravens and Joe Flacco own the slate's second-highest implied team total. Flacco and his pass-catchers will be another enticing stack. On the flip side, oddsmakers aren't expecting many points in this Cowboys and Redskins matchup as both teams have been run-heavy through six weeks.
This week, FanDuel is offering the $300,000 NFL Rush, which costs $9 to play and pays out $100,000 to first. The $33 NFL Bomb is a 1,247-entry field and rewards the winner with $6,000. Meanwhile, the $5 single entry NFL Spike pays out $4,000 to whomever bests the 8,333-entry field. The slate locks at 4:05pm ET as usual.
Now, let's break down the top plays and fades at each position.
Lock: Jared Goff ($8,300) - Goff had his worst statistical performance of the year last week. He threw for a season-low 201 yards and no touchdowns -- the first time that has happened all season. But Week 7 should be a rebound for Goff. The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 14 touchdown passes through six games and only one quarterback -- Josh Rosen -- has failed to throw for multiple scores against the 49ers. After averaging 345 passing yards per game prior to last week's downer, Goff should get back on track against the Niners pass defense.
Fade: Alex Smith ($7,400) - Neither Smith nor Dak Prescott are all that appealing in what should be a low scoring game between the Cowboys and Redskins. Smith has thrown just 6 touchdowns through five games and his average of 241 passing yards per game ranks 24th among all quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has been much improved from recent years. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 224.5 passing yards per game, 8th-fewest, and only 2 of 6 opposing quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game this season.
Sleeper: C.J. Beathard ($6,400) - The cheapest starting quarterback on the slate, Beathard is appealing both as a salary saver and because of his nice matchup. Over the past three weeks, the Rams have allowed 8 passing scores and opposing quarterbacks are averaging 314 passing yards per game against L.A. In his three starts since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo, Beathard has been solid from a fantasy perspective. Even though he's committed multiple turnovers in two of three games, he's also thrown for multiple scores in every game. The 49ers are 10.0-point underdogs against the Rams, signaling that Beathard should once again have to air it out to keep the 49ers competitive.
Lock: Todd Gurley ($10,200) - There's little analysis that needs to be done when it comes to plugging Gurley into your FanDuel lineups. Gurley is averaging 26 touches per game and his 42.18% market share is second-best among all running backs, trailing only Ezekiel Elliott (43.24%). Gurley has also been the Rams' primary red zone weapon. His 56.63% red zone market share is second-best among all running backs, and with Cooper Kupp sidelined this week, Gurley may see a few extra looks down near the end zone. Kupp has led the Rams in targets inside-the-10 (7), but Gurley is second on the team with 5.
Fade: Mark Ingram ($7,400) - Ingram had a strong return in Week 5, finding the end zone twice against the Washington Redskins. But he totaled only 53 yards on his 16 carries and now faces a Ravens run defense that ranks as the second-best per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. No individual running back has gone over 84 yards against the Ravens and they have allowed just 2 rushing touchdowns this season, both coming from the Denver Broncos in Week 3. Ingram saw 16 carries to just 6 for Alvin Kamara as New Orleans rocked Washington, but in what should be a closer game -- the Ravens are 2.5-point home favorites -- Ingram may not dominate backfield touches like he did in Week 5.
Sleeper: Raheem Mostert ($4,900) - Mostert surprisingly played ahead of Alfred Morris on Monday night, taking 12 carries for 87 yards against the Green Bay Packers. While Matt Breida got the start, Mostert had just two fewer touches than Breida and played nearly just as many snaps. Breida saw 47.37% of the Niners' snaps while Mostert was on the field for 40.35% of the snaps. It's difficult to project if Mostert will stay as involved in Week 7, but if he does, he and Breida have a great matchup against a Rams run defense that ranks as the fourth-worst, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. If Mostert sees 10-15 touches again, he's an interesting play at just above minimum price.
Lock: Robert Woods ($7,700) - As with any other week, we want pieces of this Rams offense regardless of the matchup. Through six weeks, Woods has led the Rams in air yards (577) and with Kupp out of the lineup, more opportunities may be coming his way. As mentioned above with Goff, the 49ers pass defense has been one to target as they've allowed multiple touchdown passes in five out of six. Meanwhile, Woods has been a tear over the past four weeks, posting three 100-yard games and scoring 3 touchdowns over that span.
Fade: Josh Doctson ($4,600) - With Paul Richardson and Jamison Crowder looking unlikely to play this week, the Redskins may start Maurice Harris along with Doctson on Sunday. But even though Doctson is the near-minimum price, he's really not worth a roster spot. Now in his third season, the former first round pick has seen the second-most playing time among all Redskins receivers, but he's caught just 8-of-19 targets (42%) for 68 yards. He's yet to have more than 4 receptions or 37 yards in a game this year.
Sleeper: Willie Snead ($5,400) - Snead is somewhat of a forgotten man on the Ravens' revamped pass-catching core with John Brown and Michael Crabtree. But Snead has seen only 4 fewer targets than Brown this year and he's tied with Crabtree for the team lead in receptions (30). This week, Snead has a revenge game -- if you're into that kind of narrative -- and the matchup is great. The Saints pass defense ranks as the 4th-worst on the season, per numberFire metrics, with opposing teams averaging the 3rd-most passing yards per game (297.6) against them.
Lock: George Kittle ($6,400) - The most expensive tight end on the slate, Kittle has seen 21 targets in Beathard's 3 starts, second only to Pierre Garcon (25). Over that span, Kittle has had no fewer than 4 receptions in any game, and he's had two games with more than 10 FanDuel points. The tight end position is difficult to fill every week and Kittle's consistent targets are hard to come by. In what should be a high scoring game, Kittle is the top tight end play on the slate.
Fade: Hayden Hurst ($4,700) - Hurst and the rest of the Ravens' tight ends are difficult to trust even in a plus matchup against the Saints defense. Since Hurst returned to the lineup two weeks ago, only Nick Boyle played more than 50% of the snaps in either game. Just last week, Boyle played 63% of the Ravens offensive snaps, but he had only 2 catches for 7 yards on 4 targets to show for it. In the Ravens tight end quagmire, neither Hurst, Mark Andrews, or Maxx Williams have played more than 45% of the team's snaps over the past two weeks.
Sleeper: Geoff Swaim ($4,600) - The sixth-most expensive tight end on the slate, Swaim is a part of the Cowboys low volume passing offense, but he's on the field for nearly every snap. Swaim has played more than 90% of the Cowboys' snaps in every game this year and he's actually fourth on the team in targets (21), behind Cole Beasley (35), Ezekiel Elliott (30), and Allen Hurns (22). Swaim is also tied for the team lead in targets inside the 10-yard line with 2. Swaim's not exactly an exciting option on an uninspiring Cowboys passing game, but the tight end position on this slate behind Kittle and Jordan Reed is pretty dry.
Blair Ames is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Blair Ames also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Bames31. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.