Week 6 NFL FanDuel Late Afternoon Slate Breakdown
The Week 6 late afternoon slate (4:05pm ET) features a trio of games, two of which will likely qualify as hard to watch.
But we do once again have the Los Angeles Rams on this slate as they travel to Denver to take on a struggling Case Keenum and the Denver Broncos. This Rams and Broncos matchup has the highest projected total on the slate and players here are sure to attract high ownership.
|Matchup (Implied Team Total)||Game Total|
|Los Angeles Rams (29.50) at Denver Broncos (22.50)||52.0|
|Baltimore Ravens (22.25) at Tennessee Titans (19.75)||42.0|
|Jacksonville Jaguars (22.00) at Dallas Cowboys (19.00)||41.0|
Both of the other matchups on this slate feature some of the lowest projected totals in all of Week 6. Coming off an overtime loss in Cleveland, the Baltimore Ravens travel south to take on the Tennessee Titans. Road teams coming off an overtime game this season are just 1-5, so this could be a spot where the Ravens disappoint. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are also coming off an overtime game, but they are at home facing the Jacksonville Jaguars. With two offenses that rank in the bottom-10 per numberFire metrics, points in Dallas may be hard to come by.
With just three games on the slate, including one in particular that is sure to attract high ownership, it'll be important to come up with unique game stacks from that Denver matchup to place highly in tournaments. As usual on these small slates, leaving sizable chunks of your salary on the table is never a bad idea as it makes it more likely that you'll have a unique lineup.
Among the tournaments offered by FanDuel this week are the $350,000 NFL Rush, which costs $9 to enter and pays out $100,000 to first. The $40,000 NFL Bomb costs $33 to play and pays out $8,000 to the winner. For single entry fans, the $5 NFL Spike has a $35,000 prize pool and pays out $4,000 to whomever bests the 8,333-entry field.
Now, let's break down the top plays and fades at each position.
Lock: Jared Goff ($8,200) - By far the most expensive quarterback on this slate, Goff faces a Broncos defense that is no longer the intimidating unit it was in years past. Through five weeks, the Broncos' pass defense ranks as the league's eighth-worst and was just lit up by Sam Darnold last week for three touchdowns. Goff, on the other hand, has thrown for more than 300 yards in 4 out of 5 games and he's had multiple touchdowns in 3 games. The latest reports on Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp have been positive, so it appears they're trending in the right direction for Goff to have all of his playmakers active in this one.
Fade: Dak Prescott ($6,800) - It's been a rough start to the season for Prescott. He's topped 200 yards passing in just 2 games and he's thrown for multiple touchdowns just once. Now he faces a Jaguars defense that ranks as the second-best pass defense, per numberFire metrics. The Jaguars have allowed only three touchdown passes this season, including two from Tom Brady. It will be another difficult week for Prescott.
Sleeper: Case Keenum ($6,700) - With only six quarterbacks on the slate, our pickings are slim and that's partly why we're targeting Keenum. But the matchup is also ripe even if Keenum has been brutal through five weeks. With Aqib Talib out and Marcus Peters coming back from a calf injury over the past two weeks, the Rams defense has been one to target. Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson have each thrown for three touchdowns in recent weeks against Los Angeles as they tried to keep pace with the high-powered Rams offense. It's Keenum's turn this week in the game with the highest projected point total on the slate. Keenum has not been great to start the season, throwing at least one interception in every game and committing multiple turnovers in three out of five. But the Broncos are 7.0-point home underdogs, so Keenum should be throwing often as he tries to exploit a vulnerable Rams pass defense.
Lock: Todd Gurley ($9,500) - Gurley has been rock solid through 5 weeks, averaging 26 FanDuel points per game. In Week 6, he'll face a Broncos defense that was just gashed by Jets running backs. Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell combined for 318 yards and 1 touchdown on 35 carries in Week 5. Overall, Denver's run defense has not been great this season, ranking as the ninth-worst, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Meanwhile, Gurley has seen some of the highest usage in the league. His 40.65% market share ranks as the third-best among all running backs. Once again, Gurley is the top play on the slate.
Fade: Derrick Henry ($5,500) - Henry is an unappealing fantasy option this week for a couple of reasons. First, Henry's timeshare with Dion Lewis has capped the upside of both players. Henry is seeing slightly fewer touches than Lewis -- Lewis' market share is 27.40% compared to Henry's 23.97% -- but Henry has also yet to find the end zone and that should continue against a Ravens run defense that ranks as the league's second-best. No individual running back has gone over 84 yards against the Ravens, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Sleeper: Javorius Allen ($5,500) - Allen is one of the cheapest running backs on the slate and has an appealing matchup against a Titans run defense that ranks as the league's seventh-worst. Allen and Alex Collins have split playing time all year with Collins handling a slight majority of the touches, but Allen played nearly twice as many snaps (50-27) than Collins in Week 5, the highest disparity all season. Allen has also been the team's preferred goal line back, seeing five touches inside the 5-yard line and converting those into three touchdowns. Collins has four touches inside the 5, but just one touchdown.
Lock: Robert Woods ($7,300) - While Cooks and Kupp appear to be trending toward playing as of Thursday, if they sit, Woods would be left as Goff's top target on Sunday. But Woods remains a strong play even if Cooks and Kupp suit up. Through 5 weeks, Woods has seen 24.7% of the Rams' targets, tied with Kupp for the most on the team. Woods also has two 100-yard games already this season and 3 touchdowns. He'll be facing a Broncos' pass defense that ranks as the eighth-worst in the league, per numberFire metrics.
Fade: Dallas Cowboys Receivers - The platoon of Cowboys receivers, including Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup, and Cole Beasley have failed to produce through five weeks and that's unlikely to change against the Jaguars stingy pass defense. No Cowboys pass catcher has even accumulated 200 yards through 5 games with Beasley coming the closest with 193 yards on 17 catches, but no touchdowns. Even on a three-game slate, it's best to chase the receiving options on any other team.
Sleeper: Courtland Sutton ($4,800) - Sutton scored his first career touchdown last week, seeing four red zone targets from Keenum as the Broncos tried to erase a big deficit. While Sutton trails Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in targets on the team, he's seen 5 or more looks in 4 out of 5 games and he's played more than 70% of the snaps in every game since Week 2. Sutton figures to be in a game this week where the Broncos will need to throw often and as noted above with Keenum, the Rams' pass defense has been vulnerable in recent weeks.
Tight end is a brutal position to fill this week with so many top options playing in primetime games. So, instead of highlighting players to focus on and avoid -- since almost everyone is in play -- we'll just touch on a few options here.
Niles Paul ($4,800) is the most expensive tight end on the slate, and he steps into a starting role for the Jaguars with Austin Seferian-Jenkins on injured reserve. Paul will most likely not see 9 targets again like he did in Week 5 as Blake Bortles threw the ball 61 times, but the Cowboys have been vulnerable to opposing tight ends. Just last week, Ryan Griffin posted 6 catches for 65 yards.
Geoff Swaim ($4,400) has surprisingly seen the third-most targets (19) on the Cowboys and he's tied with Ezekiel Elliott for targets inside the 10-yard line (2). The Cowboys and Jaguars game is unlikely to produce many points, but Swaim has seen at least three targets in every game, emerging as one of Prescott's targets.
Finally, Jeff Heuerman ($4,400) has seen at least 4 targets in each of the past 3 games, playing no fewer than 60% of the Broncos' snaps in each. With Denver expected to chase the high-scoring Rams offense, Heuerman has some appeal against a Rams defense that has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Blair Ames is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Blair Ames also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Bames31. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.