DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10
The daily fantasy football games offered on FanDuel and DraftKings have many similarities, but one distinct difference is that DraftKings uses full PPR scoring. Much like you would in season-long leagues, that means we must evaluate players slightly differently on each site. In this space, we'll help you on the DraftKings side of the equation.
Be sure to pay attention to inactives prior to Sunday's games. Similar to late scratches in the NBA, injuries can have a huge impact on playing time, and great values can open up for you at the last minute. At a position like running back, a low-priced backup can suddenly find his way into a feature role and become an excellent play.
Also, be sure to use numberFire's premium tools at your disposal. In particular, the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals, and every team's strengths and weaknesses.
Now, let's check out the top plays on this week's DraftKings main slate.
Matthew Stafford ($6,800): Matthew Stafford has thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight games and now faces a pass-funnel defense in the Cleveland Browns that ranks 29th against the pass and 2nd against the run by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Between that and the Detroit Lions' putrid running game, we have every reason to believe Stafford will be slinging it on Sunday, as Detroit has a robust 27.25-point implied team total. Also, at nearly the same salary, don't let the home/road splits scare you off Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) in tournaments, who faces an Indianapolis Colts team that's made fantasy superstars out of the likes of DeShone Kizer, Brian Hoyer, and Blake Bortles.
Josh McCown ($6,100): A popular streaming option in season-long leagues, Josh McCown also makes for nice play in DFS against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs rank 30th against the pass and 28th in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks. The 38-year-old McCown is quietly having a fine campaign, accounting for multiple scores in each of his last five games. As of this writing, the over/under has crept up to 44.0 since opening at 41.0, a sign this game could have some sneaky scoring potential.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($4,900): On the other sideline we have the requisite value quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick, filling in Jameis Winston. Fitzpatrick is always susceptible to turnovers, but proved he's still capable of putting up points in Week 6 against the Arizona Cardinals, racking up 22.6 DraftKings points in relief. Losing Mike Evans to a suspension does add a little more risk, but the New York Jets are 21st against the pass by our metrics, and Fitzpatrick won't have to be perfect to hit value at this low price tag. Oh, and you may have heard this is a "revenge" game for the former Jets quarterback if you like taking your strolls on narrative street.
Le'Veon Bell ($9,800): The Colts are the gift that keeps on giving in DFS, allowing the a league-high 28.9 real-life points a game on defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 27.25-point implied team total, so you'll want exposure to this game, and what better way than through the massive volume of Le'Veon Bell. He's averaging 32.8 touches per game over his last five games while seeing a ridiculous 50.8% of the team's targets and carries. It's a hefty price, but the immense floor makes him well worth it. If you can't fit him in, then Todd Gurley ($8,700) makes for a viable alternative, with the Los Angeles Rams sporting a slate-high 29.0-point implied total as huge home favorites.
Carlos Hyde ($6,300): Never known for his pass-catching chops prior to this season, Carlos Hyde has become C.J. Beathard's favorite target since taking over at quarterback. Over Beathard's three starts, Hyde has been targeted 28 times and now only trails Christian McCaffrey and James White in targets per game among running backs (6.3). With Pierre Garcon out for the season, Hyde is the primary weapon on offense, and his heavy involvement in the pass game ensures a high floor. As anemic as the 49ers offense has been, they get the ideal pick-me-up against a New York Giants team that got lit up for 51 points by the Rams and are reportedly less than thrilled with their head coach.
Bilal Powell ($4,000): Matt Forte missed practice again on Friday and is starting to look unlikely to play on Sunday. That opens the door for Bilal Powell, who would inherit lead back duties and has historically performed well when Forte is out. When Forte missed Week 4, Powell saw a season-high 66% snaps and 25 touches against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bucs rank 28th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. Should Forte suit up on Sunday, Orleans Darkwa ($4,500) is another cheap option against the 49ers.
A.J. Green ($7,700): You obviously can't go wrong with Antonio Brown ($9,500) against the Colts, but it will be near impossible to fit him in if you elect to use Bell. You can also opt for A.J. Green, who may have a chip on his shoulder following his meltdown against Jalen Ramsey in Week 9. Despite last week's ejection, Green is seeing nearly 30% of his team's targets and 42% of the air yards this season. The Tennessee Titans make for a perfect bounce-back spot, ranking a mere 28th against the pass by numberFire's marks.
Sterling Shepard ($5,500): The one good thing about the Giants' decimated receiving corps is Eli Manning's targets have only so many places to go now. Evan Engram ($6,200) is getting peppered with targets, but is the priciest tight end on the board, leaving him more suitable for tournaments. However, we also have Sterling Shepard, who won't break the bank and saw a cool nine targets in his return last week. The 49ers and Giants both play at a fast pace, which combined with their poor defenses could mean a potentially under-the-radar shootout.
Adam Humphries ($3,100) and Chris Godwin ($3,000): Mike Evans has averaged 9.3 targets a game this year, so his suspension leaves a lot of extra targets to go around against the Jets. Enter Adam Humphries and Chris Godwin as your punts du jour. Primarily playing out of the slot, Humphries has seen the second-most targets from Fitzpatrick behind Evans and looks like a prime candidate to inherit a chunk of those looks, making him a solid floor play for cash games. Godwin has done little on the stat sheet this season, but the talented rookie stands to see a season-high in snaps and is intriguing for tournaments.
Cameron Brate ($4,100): Of course, Mike Evans' suspension should also mean more attention for Cameron Brate. Like Humphries, Brate has been a popular target of Fitzpatrick's, and is averaging a respectable 6.0 targets a game overall this year. He's tied with Evans for the team's most red zone targets (nine), leaving him as the most likely Tampa Bay pass-catcher to hit paydirt this week.
Garrett Celek ($2,500): The Giants have notoriously struggled against tight ends this season, but with George Kittle out for the 49ers, we'll be putting things to the test with backup tight end Garrett Celek. Considering Celek is 29 years old and only has 752 receiving yards in his entire career, we're not dealing with an exceptional talent. But the Giants are a special case, having allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game this season, including Tyler Higbee most recently. Much like Trey Burton last week, the savings will open things up for the rest of your roster.
Los Angeles Rams D/ST ($3,600): If the hapless Colts defense was able to muster 8.0 DraftKings points against the Houston Texans and "pocket sloth" quarterback Tom Savage, then imagine what a competent defense can do? The Rams are sixth in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate, and they're likely to force Savage to throw as big home favorites, which could lead to all sorts of fantasy fun. And with newly-signed Josh Johnson as the backup -- who hasn't thrown an NFL pass since 2011 -- it's not like the Texans have anyone else to bail them out.
Chicago D/ST ($3,000): Brett Hundley isn't making a very good Aaron Rodgers impression for the Green Bay Packers, whose offense has spiraled down the drain since Rodgers' injury. Coming in at a very affordable price point, the Bears rank second in adjusted sack rate, and shouldn't have much trouble harassing Hundley, who simply hasn't looked comfortable in the pocket since taking over at quarterback.
Kenyatta Storin is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Kenyatta Storin also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username yatters. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.