5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 4
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 4 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday and Monday games?
In Watson's two starts, he has put forth 17.70 and 22.14 FanDuel points against the Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots. The Bengals rank 9th against the pass by our Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric, and the Pats are 31st. Watson's Week 4 opponent, the Tennessee Titans, ranks 26th. They're also 26th against quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points per game.
Hopkins leads the NFL in target market share at 39.8%, and the Titans are 30th against fantasy receivers. Nuk hasn't flashed big upside yet this year (15.0, 10.8, 11.1 FanDuel points) but has 16, 13, and 8 targets the past three games while playing every offensive snap. The matchup, usage, and price is too good not to consider a Watson/Hopkins stack.
Coming off a Monday Night Football matchup, the Arizona Cardinals are a bit underpriced. They do face a San Francisco 49ers team that had extra rest while playing on Thursday in Week 3, but the Niners are 28th against the pass by our metrics so far this season and 31st in sack rate. Palmer's Cardinals are seven-point favorites and are expected to get linemen Mike Iupati and DJ Humphries back from injury.
Fitzgerald boasts a 26.0% target market share and draws a matchup against K'Waun Williams in the slot, possibly the 49ers' weakest cornerback (and that's saying a lot). John Brown returned to practice Wednesday, but his presence should impact the tertiary options of Jaron Brown and J.J. Nelson rather than Fitzgerald, who leads the league with eight red zone targets in the slot.
The Dallas Cowboys also are coming off a Monday Night Football outing and face the Los Angeles Rams, who played Thursday night. That's not ideal. And Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) should draw a lot of ownership; that automatically suggests a Dak/Dez stack could be light in terms of ownership. Prescott, though, has produced at least 17 FanDuel points in all three games despite some tough matchups (all three defenses are in the top 16 in pass defense by our metrics). The Rams rank sixth. The process isn't a total green light, but we're talking tournament stacks here.
That also follows over to Bryant, who has produced despite tough cornerbacks opposite him. Trumaine Johnson is no slouch yet again opposite Bryant, but he's probably the weakest corner that Dez has dealt with so far. Bryant has a 25.7% market share and still leads the league with 6 targets from inside the 10. This makes for a nice ownership pivot off of Elliott.
The Oakland Raiders rank 30th in both pass defense, per our metrics, and fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. That's a good start for Siemian, who has produced at least 23.6 FanDuel points in two of his three games so far this season. Oakland is just 22nd in both sack rate and quarterback hit rate, as well. The Denver Broncos have the fifth-highest implied total (25 points) on the main slate, so Siemian is firmly in play.
The receiver most logical to pair him with is Sanders rather than Demaryius Thomas at the same price. Sanders has seen 29.6% of Denver's targets this season as well as 28.6% of their red zone targets. Thomas is at 25.5% and 7.1%, respectively. Sanders might actually be the higher-owned option of the two, but with Hopkins, Fitzgerald, and Keenan Allen ($7,300) in a similar range, neither should be significantly rostered in any tournaments.
Los Angeles Chargers
Speaking of Keenan Allen, the Los Angeles Chargers also make for strong stacks this week. The constant, of course, is Rivers against a Philadelphia Eagles front that is likely to be without Fletcher Cox. The Chargers are 5th in sack rate allowed, and that helps with concerns about the Eagles' pass rush (15th in sack rate). The Eagles are 12th against the pass by our metrics but 22nd against fantasy quarterbacks. If Rivers can stay upright, he should be able to pick apart a leaky secondary.
Allen is the most obvious play here at just $7,300. Allen commands a 26.1% market share, and slot receiver Sterling Shepard just turned 10 targets into 7 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles last week. But Tyrell Williams has played at least 90% of the Chargers' snaps in all three games so far and has had 7 targets in two of his three games. He also had four deep targets (passes traveling at least 16 air yards) just last week.
And that's not all! Travis Benjamin ($5,000) is in the mix, as well. Benjamin had 5 deep targets in Week 3 (and 8 targets total) for 105 yards. He just hasn't played more than 67% of snaps in a game yet this season. All three are options with Rivers this week, but Williams' target rate, snap rate, and expected ownership make him my personal favorite of the trio.