Fantasy Football Mailbag: Friday 12/9/16

Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.

Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.

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Now, let's answer some questions.

Email submission from Corey:

Need help deciding between Terrell Pryor and Malcolm Mitchell as my #2 WR. Also do I stick with Delanie Walker over Brate this week in a tough matchup versus Denver?

For these, I'll assume half-PPR scoring so that we can limit the damage either way.

We project Terrelle Pryor for 12.76 half-PPR points against the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank third against receivers (according to our DFS tools). Per our advanced analytics, the Bengals rank 14th against the pass overall this season.

Malcolm Mitchell is projected for 9.28 against the Baltimore Ravens, who are 23rd against fantasy receivers but 9th against the pass, per our metrics.

Both games have iffy weather, as Cleveland is looking to have 12 mile-per-hour winds and a 30-to-50% chance of precipitation for Sunday, and New England is forecast for winds around 10 miles per hour and a similar chance of drizzle. I'd lean Pryor here.

As for Delanie Walker versus Cameron Brate, I think you have to stick with Walker. We project him for 8.14 half-PPR points, compared to 7.64 for Brate.

The Denver Broncos allow the 17th-most points to starting tight ends despite being the toughest pass defense overall by our metrics. That suggests production through the air will go through Walker, who has the highest target market share among tight ends in his past three games (aside from Travis Kelce), this week.

Let's check out our PPR projections for that one.

Player Median Floor Ceiling
Lamar Miller 14.69 7.48 21.90
LeGarrette Blount 13.52 5.58 21.46
Tim Hightower 9.47 3.63 15.31
Ryan Mathews 6.30 1.11 11.49

So, whether you're looking for floor or ceiling, your best bets are Lamar Miller and LeGarrette Blount this week.

Despite the tough Baltimore defense, the New England Patriots are projected to win this one 68.6% of the time, so Blount should get extra looks. They also have one of the highest implied totals of the week at 26 points.

As for Miller, he's a 6.5-point road underdog against the Indianapolis Colts, but Indianapolis is 25th against fantasy running backs, per our DFS tools, and 20th against the run overall this year.

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